Syllabus: GS3/Science and Technology/GS2/IR
Context
- The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 2026 report for the first time classified 12 of India’s estimated stockpile of 190 nuclear warheads to be operationally deployed.
Stockpiling and Deployment:
- Stockpile: For most of its nuclear history, India has kept its warheads in a de-mated state, meaning the warheads were stored separately from their delivery vehicles, under strict civilian and political oversight.
- The idea was to maximise safety, reduce the risk of accidental use, and signal restraint to the international community.
- Deployment means a weapon has been paired with a delivery system i.e. a missile, aircraft, or submarine, and positioned with operational military forces in a state of readiness.
- This does not mean the weapons are about to be used; it means they are configured for use if authorised.
- A de-mated weapon requires time to prepare and deploy; a mated weapon can, in principle, be launched more quickly.
What Does Deployment by India Means?
- A fraction of India’s arsenal now is being maintained in a state of operational readiness.
- SIPRI has linked this assessment to the maturation of India’s nuclear triad, particularly its sea-based deterrent.
- It suggests that a small number of warheads may now be deployed aboard a nuclear ballistic missile submarine (which are also called SSBN) conducting occasional deterrence patrols.
- SIPRI also noticed India’s increasing reliance on canisterised Agni-series missiles.
- This means the missiles are kept ready with fuel in a sealed cylinder, from which they can be directly fired without further preparations.
- Canisterisation thus indicates a greater level of operational readiness.
- Overall, India’s long-envisioned deterrent posture is becoming increasingly operational across land and sea-based delivery systems, but doesn’t mean that the country is on a war footing.
Treaties Related to Nuclear Disarmament
- Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT): It was signed in 1968 and entered into force in 1970, the NPT aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament.
- It divides the world into nuclear-weapon states (NWS), recognized as possessing nuclear weapons at the time of the treaty’s signing, and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS), which agree not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.
- It requires NWS to pursue disarmament negotiations in good faith.
- India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan have not signed the NPT.
- Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): Adopted by the United Nations in 2017 and opened for signature in 2018, the TPNW aims to prohibit the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use, and threat of use of nuclear weapons.
- It represents a significant step towards nuclear disarmament, although it has not been signed by nuclear-armed states.
- Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT): Opened for signature in 1996, the CTBT aims to ban all nuclear explosions for both civilian and military purposes.
- While the treaty has been signed by 185 countries and ratified by 170, it has not entered into force as nuclear-armed states must ratify it to become operational.
- Outer Space Treaty: This multilateral agreement entered into force in 1967 and bans the siting of weapons of mass destruction in space.
- All nine states believed to have nuclear weapons are parties to this treaty.
India’s Policy Towards Nuclear Weapons
- No First Use: India has a declared nuclear no-first-use policy, under which it will not use nuclear weapons as a means of warfare unless first attacked by nuclear weapons.
- Non-Use Against Non-Nuclear Weapon States: India has committed to not using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states.
- Retaliation Only: India’s nuclear doctrine asserts that nuclear weapons are solely for deterrence and that India will pursue a policy of ‘retaliation only’.
- Multilateral Legal Arrangements: India is prepared to convert these undertakings into multilateral legal arrangements.
Conclusion
- India’s nuclear choices must be understood from within the evolving security environment.
- SIPRI has noted that India’s modernisation programme is increasingly focused on developing long-range delivery systems capable of reaching targets throughout China — while continuing to account for Pakistan.
- India’s SSBN programme appears directed as much towards maintaining credible deterrence against China as towards preserving stability with Pakistan.
- India’s evolving deterrent posture should therefore be seen not as an isolated development but as part of a wider transformation in the global strategic environment.
Source: TH
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