Poor Monsoon in India: Causes, Implications and Preparedness

Syllabus: GS1/Geography; GS3/Environment; Agriculture

Context

• Recently, IMD forecasts below-normal precipitation (about 43% below normal) that have intensified due to delayed rainfall and emerging El Niño conditions.

About Indian Monsoon

• It is the seasonal reversal of winds.
• It is primarily caused due to the difference between land an

• There are two types of monsoons in India:
  • Southwest Monsoon: It accounts for about 75% of total precipitation in India.
  • Northeast or Retreating Monsoon: It occurs in the southeastern part of India including Tamil Nadu.
• It is very important for the farming, water supply, and economy of the country.
• Long Period Average (LPA) serves as the standard parameter for IMD to evaluate monsoon.

Key Reasons Behind the Weak Monsoon

• Limited Impact of El Niño Before Early June: El Niño phenomenon developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • According to IMD, the effect of El Niño on the Indian monsoon shows a lag of roughly one month.
  • El Niño reduces the strength of Walker Circulation.
  • It inhibits moisture transport and convection over the Indian subcontinent.
  • However, the deficit rainfall in June could not have been caused mainly by El Niño.
• Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): MJO is an active system of cloudiness, rainfall and wind movement along the equator.
  • The favorable phase of MJO was not present over India through most of June.
  • While over India, it suppressed convection and rainfall.
  • It reduced monsoon activity over much of the country.
• Weak Monsoon Circulation System: It is because of:
  • Weak cross-equatorial flow from the Indian Ocean.
  • Ineffective moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
  • Weak progression of monsoon over northern and western India.
• No Significant Low-Pressure Areas: Monsoon rains over India are strongly influenced by:
  • Low-pressure areas and depressions developing over the Bay of Bengal.
  • During June, such systems were either missing or weak, producing poor rainfall distribution.
• Increased Climate Variability: Climate change has increased intraseasonal climate variability; occurrence of droughts and excessive rainfall; and uneven distribution of rainfall across regions.
  • Therefore, even the years having near-normal total rainfall experience localized shortages.

Implications of a Weak Monsoon Over India

• Agricultural Stress: Agriculture remains highly dependent on monsoon rainfall despite expansion of irrigation.
  • A weak monsoon may lead to reduced kharif sowing; lower crop yields, especially rice, pulses and oilseeds; and increased input costs for farmers due to dependence on irrigation.
• Threat to Food Security and Inflation: Lower agricultural output can push food prices upward; increase inflationary pressures; and affect nutritional security, particularly among vulnerable populations.
• Water Shortage: Poor rains reduce the groundwater level; fill the reservoirs; and decrease the availability of drinking water.
  • Past experience shows that dry years require water to be transported to drought-prone areas.
• Economic Impact on Rural Areas: Weak monsoon affects farm income; demand from rural sector; and job prospects in agriculture-based regions.
  • It would hamper the economic growth of the country.
• Hydropower Production: Low reservoir water level affects hydropower production; and availability of water for irrigation and consumption in cities.
• Environmental Impacts: Lack of rain increases the risk of forest fires; soil erosion; and pressure on wetlands and waterways.

India’s Preparedness For Weak Monsoon

• Weather Forecasting By IMD: IMD provides extended-range and district-level forecasts.
  • Early warnings enable governments and farmers to plan crop choices and irrigation schedules.
• Assessing Districts Vulnerability: Around 315 districts have been identified as potentially affected by weak monsoon conditions.
  • 111 districts (high priority) have irrigation coverage below 25%.
  • 76 districts (medium-priority) have irrigation coverage between 25% to 50%.
  • 128 districts (low priority) have relatively better irrigation facilities through dams and other sources.
• Contingency Crop Planning: The ICAR prepares district-specific contingency plans involving drought-tolerant crop varieties; alternate cropping systems; and short-duration seed varieties.
  • The Centre and state governments are preparing region-specific strategies for vulnerable farm areas as seen in the recent contingency planning exercises.
• Water Conservation: MGNREGS focuses on farm ponds, check dams, rainwater harvesting structures, and watershed development. These initiatives enhance local water security.
• Expansion of Irrigation Infrastructure: Schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) aim to improve irrigation efficiency through micro-irrigation; ‘Per Drop More Crop’ initiatives; and command area development.
• Diversification of Energy Sources: Rapid expansion of solar power, wind energy, and other renewables has reduced dependence on hydropower during drought years.
• Crop Insurance: The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) provides risk coverage against weather-induced crop losses.

Way Forward

• Strengthen climate-resilient agriculture by using drought-resistant seeds and diversified farming.
• Increase micro-irrigation and water conservation to make less use of rains.
• Build up better watersheds and management of groundwaters locally, and advocate river basin and reservoir management.
• Improve climate forecasting and dissemination systems for timely decision-making.
• Incorporate climate change adaptation into rural development policies.
• Encourage community-led water conservation and sustainable agricultural practices.

Conclusion

• India’s experience underscores that a weak monsoon is no longer merely a meteorological concern but a multidimensional developmental challenge. 
• While improved forecasting, water conservation measures and renewable energy expansion have enhanced resilience, increasing climate variability necessitates sustained adaptation and long-term preparedness.

Source: IE