China’s Expansionist Strategy: Implications and Countermeasures

Syllabus: GS2/ International Relations

Context

• China’s aggressive expansionist strategies have raised alarms globally, particularly among neighboring countries like India. The recent border developments between India and China highlight Beijing’s assertive territorial ambitions, which pose significant geopolitical challenges.

Key Elements of China’s Expansionist Strategy

• Territorial Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific: China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea (SCS) is evident through artificial island-building and the militarization of contested regions.
  • It has disregarded international rulings, such as the Hague Tribunal verdict (2016) invalidating its Nine-Dash Line maritime claims.
  • Tensions with Japan over the Senkaku Islands and with Bhutan over the Doklam plateau reflect its expansionist mindset.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): The BRI, while offering infrastructure development, often traps countries in debt dependency, giving China strategic leverage.
  • Examples include Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
• Diplomatic Assertiveness: China’s confrontational ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy employs coercion and threats to counter criticism, from its trade war with the U.S. to disputes with Europe and India.
• Military Modernization and Encroachment: Investments in hypersonic missiles and naval expansion bolster its territorial claims.
  • Frequent border incursions, including the Galwan Valley clashes (2020), are direct manifestations of its expansionist vision.

Recent Incidents Affecting India

• Dam Construction on the Yarlung Zangbo River: The proposed dam on the Brahmaputra River threatens downstream water security, reducing silt and water availability for India and Bangladesh.
• Administrative Changes in Ladakh: China created two new counties in the Hotan Prefecture, incorporating areas of Ladakh.
• Border Disputes of China with Nations: China has ongoing border disputes with several nations, including:
  • India: Over territories like Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, highlighted by frequent incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
  • Japan: Over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, claimed by China as Diaoyu Islands.
  • Southeast Asian Nations: In the South China Sea, disputes over maritime territories with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei due to its expansive Nine-Dash Line claims.

Motivations Behind China’s Strategy

• Restoration of Historical Glory: President Xi Jinping’s ‘Chinese Dream’ envisions reclaiming China’s status as a dominant global power, rooted in the concept of the ‘Middle Kingdom’.
• Economic Security: With a slowing domestic economy and aging population, securing global markets and resources is vital.
• Countering Western Influence: China seeks to challenge U.S. hegemony and establish a global order aligned with its authoritarian governance model.

Consequences of China’s Expansionism

• Regional Instability: Exacerbates tensions from the SCS to the Himalayan borders, destabilizing neighboring regions.
• Economic Dependency: Countries tied to China via the BRI face debt distress, compromising their sovereignty.
• Erosion of International Norms: Disregard for global rules and multilateral decisions weakens the rules-based international order.

Countering China’s Expansionist Strategy

• Strengthening Regional and Global Alliances: Initiatives like Quad (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) and AUKUS promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.
  • ASEAN nations are diversifying partnerships to reduce reliance on China.
• Promoting a Rules-Based Order: Strengthening multilateral organizations like the UN and WTO to counter unilateralism.
• Economic Resilience: Countries are diversifying supply chains and promoting self-reliance to reduce dependency on Chinese imports.
• Military and Strategic Preparedness: Nations must invest in modernizing their armed forces and enhancing maritime security.

India’s Role in China’s Expansionist Strategy

• Geopolitical Importance: India’s 3,488 km border with China makes it a key player in countering Beijing’s territorial ambitions.
  • Incidents like Doklam (2017) and Galwan Valley (2020) underscore China’s aggressive stance.
• Counterbalance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR): India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) framework and partnerships with ASEAN bolster regional security.
• Economic Rivalry: Despite bilateral trade exceeding $118.4 billion, India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign aims to reduce dependence on Chinese imports.
• Global Coalitions: India’s emphasis on a rules-based Indo-Pacific, its G20 presidency, and participation in BRICS and SCO ensure checks on China’s agenda.

Conclusion and Way Forward

• China’s expansionist strategy poses a significant challenge to regional stability and global governance. While its rise is undeniable, unchecked ambitions risk destabilizing the international order. 
• The world’s response must focus on promoting cooperation, enforcing international laws, and building alliances to counter Beijing’s growing influence. For India, a vigilant and proactive approach—strengthening alliances, investing in strategic partnerships, and promoting self-reliance—will be crucial in navigating the challenges posed by China’s aggressive policies.