Syllabus: GS3/Economy
Context:
- Concerns over India’s falling fertility rate, ageing population and regional demographic imbalances have resulted in a need for a cautious balanced approach to adapting to population change and calls for a return to traditional values.
India Population Change
- India is in the advanced stage of demographic transition with declining fertility and mortality rates.
- India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021 and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019-21).
- India continues to have a demographic dividend with almost 66% of the population in the working age group (15-59 years), while population growth is slowing down.
- However, population decline, ageing, regional differences and changing religious composition have caused concern and created lively public debate.
- There is a need for a balanced, evidence-based approach to avoid unnecessary alarmism.
Will India become a country of depopulation?
- In India, it is not a story of population collapse, but of population stabilisation.
- India’s population peaked at about 1.7 billion in the second half of the century, then gradually declined back to near today’s level by 2100 (United Nations World Population Prospects, 2022)
- The projections of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggest a sharper decline, but these are based on the assumption that higher educational attainment will continue to reduce fertility at current rates.
- But NFHS-5 data shows that fertility among highly educated women has stabilised while fertility among less-educated women has declined significantly thereby narrowing the educational fertility gap.
- It means that predictions of extreme depopulation may overestimate future declines.
Regional differences in demographics
- In the southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh the fall in fertility came much earlier than in the northern states.
- Therefore, over time the share of the population of the southern states has decreased. For instance, Tamil Nadu’s share in the total population of India has declined from 7.5% (1971) to around 6% (2011 Census).
- That has revived fears over delimitation, as future demarcation of parliamentary seats based on only population could reduce the political representation of southern states.
- But reduced fertility has also allowed greater investments in health, education and human capital.
- As Tamil Nadu’s share in population has declined, its share in India’s GDP has increased, an indication of productivity-led growth, according to economic estimates.
Key Population Theories
Malthusian Theory of Population (Thomas Robert Malthus, 1798)
- Core Idea: The food production increases in a geometric progression while the population increases in an arithmetic progression.
- Eventually the food supply can not keep up with the population growth and crises happen.
- Population controls:
- Preventive Checks: Late marriage, moral restraint, celibacy.
- Positive Checks: famine, disease, war, natural catastrophes.
- Criticism:
- Food production increased rapidly due to technology (Green Revolution, mechanisation, biotechnology).
- Not foreseeing progress in health care, trade and productivity.
- Our experience in India where food production has increased along with population through innovation is instructive.
Demographic Transition Theory (DTT)
- Developed by Warren Thompson (1929) and refined by Frank Notestein.
- Stage I (High Stationary): High birth rate High death rate Low population growth Societies before industrialisation.
- Stage II (Early Expanding): Health and sanitation improve, and death rates fall, but birth rates are still high, so population grows rapidly.
- Stage III (Late Expanding): Birth rates begin to fall; population still rising but more slowly.
- For example India in the late twentieth century.
- Stage IV (Low Stationary): Birth and death rate both low. Population stable.
- For example: the United States, the United Kingdom, and France
- Stage V (Forecast): Birth rate drops below death rate; population ageing and possible decline.
- For example, South Korea, Japan, and Italy.
- India’s Position: India is in the late Stage III to early Stage IV with TFR of 2.0 (NFHS-5) which is below replacement level of 2.1.
Theory of Optimum Population ( Edwin Cannan)
- Core Idea: For a given level of resources and technology, there is an optimal population size that maximises the per capita income.
- Implications:
- Underpopulation: Resources are not being fully used.
- Overpopulation: Resources are over stressed. Living standards fall.
- Optimum Population: It provides maximum productivity and economic welfare.
- Limitations:
- It is difficult to determine optimum population.
- It ignores environmental sustainability and the social aspects.
- The ideal level is always changing with technology.
Theory of Demographic Dividends
- Basic Idea: Economy grows faster if the working age population (15-64 years) is larger than the dependent population.
- Conditions for Success: Quality education and skill development Employment generation Women’s participation in the workforce Good governance and healthcare.
- India is currently in a demographic dividend phase, which is expected to continue till about 2040-2055 (UN estimates).
- Challenge: The demographic dividend can turn into a demographic liability where there are insufficient jobs and skills.
Theory of Human Capital
- Basic Idea: Economic development is more related to the quality of the population than the quantity.
- Focus Areas: Education, health care, skill development and innovation.
Ageing Population: Challenge or Opportunity?
- The share of those aged 60 and above will increase from 11 per cent (2021) to nearly 28 per cent in 2051 (Population Foundation of India).
- Challenges:
- More spending on health care, pensions.
- Greater demand for services for the elderly.
- Rising old-age dependency ratio.
Why It May Not Become a Crisis?
- The increase in the elderly population is offset by much of the decrease in the child population.
- By 2051, India’s working age population is expected to be around 64%.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI), automation and digital technologies can greatly improve labour productivity.
- Female Labour Force Participation (FLFP) remains low with a vast scope for scaling up the workforce through the greater role of women.
- So, aging should be considered as a manageable transition, not an economic catastrophe.
Related Efforts: Population Balance
- The Government of India has moved from population control to population stabilisation and reproductive rights.
- National Population Policy (2000): Focus on voluntary family planning, reproductive health care and population stabilisation.
- Mission Parivar Vikas: Enhances availability of modern contraceptives in high fertility districts.
- National Health Mission (NHM): Enhancing Maternal and Child Health Services
- POSHAN Abhiyaan: Better nutrition for mother and child
- Skill India Mission and Digital India: Boost productivity, equip the workforce for changing technology.
- National Programme for Health Care of Elderly (NPHCE): This is a programme to cater to the needs of the ageing population of India.
- These initiatives recognise that sustainable demographic management is dependent on health care, education, gender equality and employment rather than coercive population policies.
Policy Priorities: Going Forward
- Adopt evidence-based population policies rather than rhetoric inspired by fear of either population explosion or implosion.
- Support childcare, flexible employment and safer workplaces to boost women’s labour force participation.
- Invest in education and skills development to maximise dividend from demographic dividend.
- The quality of public education can be improved and the household education expenditure can be reduced, thereby alleviating the financial burden of raising children.
- Build infrastructure for universal healthcare, social security and elderly care to prepare for healthy ageing.
- Ensure delimitation reforms are balanced to protect both democratic representation and federal equity.
- Use of AI and tech innovation to boost productivity and offset slower labour force growth.
- Support reproductive rights by ensuring access to contraception, maternal health care, and voluntary and informed family planning.
| Daily Mains Practice Question [Q] India’s demographic transition presents both opportunities and challenges. Discuss the implications of declining fertility, ageing population, and regional demographic disparities for India’s socio-economic development. |
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