Declining Fertility Rate in India and Concerns

Syllabus: GS2/Health/Governance

Context

• As per the latest Sample Registration System data India’s total fertility rate is at 1.9 children per woman, below both the global average of 2.2 and the replacement level of 2.1 needed to keep a population stable.

TFR as per the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime assuming she lives through her reproductive years (15-49 years), has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • Replacement rate is the number of child births a woman must go through to keep the population constant from one generation to the next without migration. 
• The only states in India with a TFR higher than 2.1 in 2024 were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Delhi records the lowest TFR at 1.2, followed by Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal at 1.3 each.
  • The southern states have always had TFRs well below the national average. This has gone down further in the last two decades.
• In 1985, India’s TFR was 4.3 and has fallen at a rate of about 0.06 per year and there is no sign that this decline will reverse.
  • At the current pace, India’s TFR is projected to drop below 1.6 by 2031.

Reasons for Declining Fertility Rate in India

• Delayed Marriage and Childbearing: The average age of marriage has increased, especially in urban areas, couples are postponing childbirth due to career considerations.
• Urbanisation: Urban living is associated with higher costs of housing, education, healthcare, and childcare. Limited living space and changing lifestyles encourage smaller family sizes. 
• Improved Access to Contraception and Family Planning: Expansion of reproductive health services and contraceptive availability has enabled couples to plan the number and spacing of children.
• Declining Infant and Child Mortality: Improvements in healthcare, immunisation, nutrition, and sanitation have reduced child mortality.
• Economic Factors: The cost of raising and educating children has increased substantially. Families increasingly prefer investing more resources in fewer children to improve their quality of life and educational outcomes.
• Demographic Transition: India is moving through the later stages of the Demographic Transition Model, characterised by low birth rates, low death rates, slower population growth.

Major Concerns

• Difference Between India and Other Countries: Western Europe and Japan aged after they had industrialised, brought a large share of workers into formal employment, widened their tax systems, and built welfare institutions with some capacity for risk-pooling. 
  • Even then, ageing strained public finances; Japan saw the burden push public debt above 200% of GDP.
  • India enters the same demographic passage on a weaker institutional and fiscal base, its per-capita income is around $2,800 and its direct tax base remains narrow. 
  • State governments, tasked with much of the social-sector response, are already fiscally stretched.
• Informal Employment: Most workers spend their lives in informal or semi-formal work, old-age income security remains largely outside formal employment contracts.
  • A contribution-based pension system works best when earnings are predictable, employment is formal, and workers can save regularly over decades. 
• Existing Public Safety Nets: The Atal Pension Yojana assumes sustained contributions across one’s working life, which is difficult for informal workers with volatile incomes.
  • The old-age pension under the National Social Assistance Programme remains ₹200 a month for those aged 60 to 79 and ₹500 for those above 80. Such support does not protect the elderly from dependence.
• Regional Demographic Imbalances: Fertility rates vary significantly across states, most southern and western states have well below replacement fertility, while states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan continue to record relatively higher fertility levels.
  • This may alter the internal migration patterns, political representation, resource allocation and labour market dynamics.

Government Initiatives

• State-Level Population Policies: Andhra Pradesh’s Population Management Policy (2026) provides cash incentives for second, third and fourth children, free education support, fertility clinics, and improved maternal healthcare.
  • Sikkim has introduced measures such as extended maternity and paternity leave and support for IVF treatment to address declining fertility.
• Infertility Support Programmes: The Jiyo Parsi Scheme provides financial assistance for infertility treatment, child-care support, and awareness campaigns to arrest the decline of the Parsi population.
• Maternal and Child Health Schemes: Programmes under the National Health Mission (NHM) improve maternal and child health, reduce infant mortality, and create conditions that support family formation and childbearing.
  • Schemes like Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) provide maternity benefits to pregnant and lactating women.
• Mission Shakti: Umbrella programme for women empowerment and safety.
  • It includes schemes supporting childcare services and economic empowerment of women.
• Palna Scheme (National Crèche Scheme): It provides day-care facilities for children aged 6 months to 6 years.
  • It offers nutrition, health care, and early learning support, helping mothers participate in the workforce.
• Atal Vayo Abhyudaya Yojana (AVYAY): AVYAY brings together articulation of each of the current schemes, future plans, strategies and targets and maps it with schemes/programmes, accountabilities, financials and clear outcomes.
  • This Plan takes care of the top four needs of the senior citizens viz financial security, food, health care and human interaction /life of dignity. 
  • It also includes the facets of safety/protection and general wellbeing of the elderly beginning from awareness generation and sensitization of the society.
• Scheme of Integrated Programme for Senior Citizens (IPSrC): Setting up of Homes to improve the quality of life of the Senior Citizens, especially indigent senior citizens by providing basic amenities like shelter, food, medical care and entertainment opportunities.
• Promoting Silver Economy: It has an objective to encourage the entrepreneurs to think about the problems of the elderly and come out with innovative solutions.
  • The Government aims to achieve the objective by providing upto Rs. 1 crore as financial assistance through equity participation, through an open invitation on a portal namely Seniorcare Ageing Growth Engine (SAGE).

Way Ahead

• Adopt a Balanced Population Policy: Shift from a sole focus on population control to a demographic strategy that balances population stabilization with concerns over declining fertility.
• Strengthen Family Support Measures: Provide affordable childcare, parental leave, and flexible work arrangements for young couples.
• Expand Fertility and Reproductive Healthcare: Improve access to infertility treatment, assisted reproductive technologies (ART), and reproductive health services, especially in smaller cities and rural areas.
• Promote Gender Equality: Encourage greater sharing of caregiving responsibilities and enhance women’s workforce participation through supportive workplace policies.
• Focus on State-Specific Interventions: Tailor policies to regional demographic trends, as fertility levels vary significantly across states.
• Invest in Human Capital: Alongside fertility measures, improve education, healthcare, and skill development to maximize the benefits of India’s demographic transition.

Conclusion

• International evidence shows that low fertility can accompany prosperity. 
• The difficulty is that India is entering mass ageing before completing the transitions that made ageing manageable elsewhere. 
• India’s low-fertility future will be sustainable only if stronger public systems gradually assume responsibilities that large families once carried quietly.

Source: TH