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- The recent data indicated that the current account deficit (CAD) will moderate despite the global slowdown triggered by rising inflation and interest rates.
About the recent trend of moderation
- About:
- According to the RBI, the CAD, which was at $36.4 billion for the quarter ending September 2022, is expected to moderate in the second half of 2022-23 and remain eminently manageable and within the parameters of viability.
- The moderation in CAD, expected to be aided by
- The fall in commodity prices,
- Rising worker’s remittances and services exports, and
- Abatement of selling pressure by foreign investors, is set to boost sentiment on the investment front, as it will also bring the pressure off the currency.
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More about CAD
About the “Current Account”
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Reasons for narrowing trade deficit
- The trade deficit (for Jan 2023) narrowed to $17.7 billion, led by a sharp fall in imports, while exports fell by a smaller amount.
- The sharp drop in imports was due to:
- Non-oil imports falling, mainly due to a price impact (softening in coal prices from mid-December),
- Likely softening in domestic demand post the festive season (such as lower imports of transport equipment), and
- Seasonal impact of the Chinese New Year holidays
- Other factors:
- On the other hand, after the Rs26,000 crore sell-off by foreign portfolio investors in January, FPI outflows have come down to Rs4,400 crore in February so far.
- At the same time, gold imports fell to $20 billion from $23.9 billion a year ago.
Impact of moderating CAD on market
- While rising CAD raises concerns among investors as it hurts the currency and thereby the inflow of funds into the markets, a notable decline in CAD in January has improved market sentiments.
- Experts believe that CAD is very important for the currency. The value of an economy hinges a lot on the value of its currency and thereby, it also supports the equity markets by keeping the fund flow intact.
Source: IE
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