In News
After weeks of deadly Turkish airstrikes in northern Syria, Kurdish forces and international players are trying to gauge whether Turkey’s threats of a ground invasion are serious.
Key Points
- Present Scenario:
- Turkish President has repeatedly warned of a new land incursion to drive Kurdish groups away from the Turkish-Syrian border, following a deadly bombing in Istanbul.
- In the most recent development, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister flew to Turkey this week for talks on the situation in Syria.
- Human Rights Watch:
- It has warned that the strikes are exacerbating a humanitarian crisis by disrupting power, fuel and aid.
Image Courtesy: HRW
Different Foreign Powers Angle in this Scenario
- Turkey:
- Turkey sees the Kurdish forces along its border with Syria as a threat and has launched three major military incursions since 2016, taking control of large swaths of territory.
- The President of Turkey hopes to relocate many of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to northern Syria and has begun building housing units there.
- The plan could address growing anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey and bolster Erdogan’s support ahead of next year’s elections, while diluting historically Kurdish-majority areas by resettling non-Kurdish Syrian refugees there.
- There are also plans to create a 30-kilometer (19-mile) security corridor in areas currently under Kurdish control. A planned Turkish invasion earlier this year was halted amid opposition by the U.S. and Russia.
- Kurds:
- Kurdish groups are pressing the U.S. and Russia, both of which have military posts in northern Syria, to once again prevent Turkey from carrying out its threats.
- The Kurds are worried that the West will stand aside this time to appease Ankara in exchange for approval of Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
- Kurdish groups, which fought against the Islamic State group alongside the U.S.-led coalition and now guard thousands of captured IS fighters and family members, warn that a Turkish escalation would threaten efforts to stamp out the extremist group.
- Syria:
- Insurgents:
- The so-called Syrian National Army, a coalition of Turkey-backed Syrian opposition groups with tens of thousands of fighters, would likely provide foot soldiers for any future ground offensive.
- In previous incursions, the SNA was accused of committing atrocities against Kurds and displacing tens of thousands from their homes.
- SNA states that they were ordered by Turkish authorities not to speak about plans for a new incursion.
- Government:
- The Syrian government has opposed past Turkish incursions but also sees the SDF as a secessionist force and a Trojan horse for the U.S., which has imposed paralyzing sanctions on the government of Bashar Assad.
- Damascus and Ankara have recently been moving to improve relations after 11 years of tension triggered by Turkey’s backing of opposition fighters in Syria’s civil war.
- Damascus has kept relatively quiet about the killing of Syrian soldiers in the recent Turkish strikes.
- Insurgents:
- US:
- The United States maintains a small military presence in northern Syria, where its strong backing of the SDF has infuriated Turkey.
- However, the U.S. at first said little publicly about the Turkish airstrikes, speaking more forcefully only after they hit dangerously close to U.S. troops and led to anti-IS patrols being temporarily halted.
- U.S.’ assurances for Kurds, worried that the U.S. might abandon them to coax a NATO deal out of Turkey: There had been no changes to U.S. policy in the region.
- Russia:
- Russia is the Syrian government’s closest ally. Its involvement in Syria’s conflict helped turn the tide in favour of Assad.
- Although Turkey and Russia support rival sides in the conflict, the two have coordinated closely in Syria’s north.
- In recent months, Russia has pushed for a reconciliation between Damascus and Ankara.
- Moscow has voiced concerns over Turkey’s recent military actions in northern Syria and has attempted to broker a deal.
Source: IE
