China’s Declining Birthrate and Impacts

Syllabus: GS1/ Demographic Dividend, GS3/Economy

In News

• The Chinese population has been consistently declining since 2022

Status of China’s Population

• China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion.
• Births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024.
• Crude Birth Rate declined to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest in decades.
• Deaths increased to 11.31 million, further accelerating population shrinkage.
• As per the UN ,China’s population is projected to decline from 1.4 billion to about 1.3 billion by 2050, with nearly 40% of citizens aged over 60, reinforcing concerns that the country will age before it becomes rich.

Steps to Increase Population 

• President Xi Jinping ended the one-child policy in 2016, first allowing two children and later expanding it to three children in 2021, but these measures have failed to reverse the population decline.
• China has introduced financial incentives for parents, reduced childcare and education costs, raised the retirement age, and launched campaigns to promote marriage and childbirth.
• It has also adjusted policies such as higher age limits for civil service exams and measures to protect pension funds.
  • However, these efforts face major challenges including high living and childcare costs, unemployment, healthcare expenses, gender imbalance, and lingering effects of the one-child policy. 

Impacts of Declining Birthrate

• Economic Growth: Shrinking labor force threatens China’s manufacturing dominance and innovation capacity.
• Aging Population: Higher dependency ratio as elderly outnumber youth, straining pensions and healthcare.
• Social Pressures: Rising costs of child-rearing, urban housing, and education discourage family formation.
• Policy Challenges: Government incentives (tax breaks, housing subsidies) have failed to reverse the trend.

India’s Birthrate and Fertility Trends

• The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) of India has declined from 39 per 1000 live births in 2014 to 27 per 1000 live births in 2021. 
• Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) has declined from 26 per 1000 live births in 2014 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2021. 
• Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) has declined from 45 per 1000 live births in 2014 to 31 per 1000 live births in 2021. 
• The Sex Ratio at Birth improves from 899 in 2014 to 913 in 2021. Total Fertility Rate is consistent at 2.0 in 2021, which is a significant improvement from 2.3 in 2014.

How China’s demographic slowdown presents strategic opportunities for India?

• India with a younger population can attract investments from labor-intensive industries shifting out of China.
• Rising wages in China and a shrinking workforce may drive companies to India to maintain cost-effective production.
• India could see an increase in demand for goods and services in a changing Chinese economy.

•  Stable fertility ensures a large working-age population, supporting economic growth.
•  India’s focus on SDG 2030 targets emphasizes sustainable population health and equitable growth.

 Conclusion and Way Ahead 

• China’s falling birthrate is transforming its economy and society, creating global consequences.
•  For India, it presents an opportunity to capitalize on its younger population in manufacturing, trade, and talent, making how India leverages this demographic advantage key to its future growth.
• India’s near-replacement fertility rate offers a demographic advantage if harnessed through education, healthcare, and employment policies.

Source :TH