IMD Launches Block-Level Monsoon Forecast System

GS1/Geography; GS3/ Disaster Management

Context

• The India Meteorological Department has launched a new forecasting system capable of providing block-level forecasts of the southwest monsoon across 15 States and one Union Territory. 

Weather forecasting in India

• India, at present, depends on satellite data and computer models for weather prediction. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) uses the INSAT series of satellites and supercomputers.
• In India three satellites, INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS are used mainly for meteorological observations. 
• Forecasters use satellite data around cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapor content that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.

About the New Forecast System

• The new forecasting system has been developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. 
• The system combines artificial intelligence-based analysis, historical meteorological records, and global weather models to improve the accuracy of monsoon forecasts.
• The forecasting system currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 States and one Union Territory.
  • The system has mainly been designed for regions falling within the monsoon core zone, which are highly dependent on rainfall.
• The system provides probabilistic forecasts for the next four weeks and tracks the movement of the monsoon from its onset over Kerala to different parts of the country.

Significance of the Initiative

• Strengthening Agricultural Resilience: The initiative can reduce agricultural vulnerability by enabling farmers to make timely and informed decisions regarding crop planning and sowing.
• Promoting Precision Agriculture: The use of AI-based weather forecasting supports the growth of precision agriculture and data-driven farming practices in India.
• Improving Disaster Preparedness: Accurate local weather forecasts can improve preparedness against floods, droughts, and extreme weather events.
• Advancing India’s Meteorological Capabilities: The initiative reflects India’s growing capabilities in climate science, weather modelling, and AI-enabled forecasting systems.
• Spatial Variability of the Monsoon: The Indian monsoon displays considerable spatial variation even within the same district.
  • In several cases, the monsoon may officially arrive in a district, while many villages and blocks within that district may continue to experience dry conditions.

Government Initiatives to Improve Weather Forecasting

• Mission Mausam: It was launched to upgrade the capabilities of India’s weather department in forecasting, modelling, and dissemination. The objectives of the mission are;
  • Develop Cutting Edge Weather Surveillance Technologies & Systems
  • Implement Next-generation radars, and satellites with advanced instrument payloads
  • Develop improved earth system models, and data-driven methods (use of AI/ML).
• The ‘National Monsoon Mission’ was set out in 2012 to move the nation over to a system that relies more on real-time, on-the-ground data gathering.
• The IMD is also increasingly using Doppler radars to improve efficiency in predictions. The number of Doppler radars has increased from 15 in 2013 to 50 in 2026.
  • Doppler radars are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.
• The Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare have initiated the weather information network and data system (WINDS) under which more than 200,000 ground stations will be installed, to generate long-term, hyper-local weather data. 

Challenges Associated with the Forecast System

• Limited Weather Infrastructure: Many regions in India still lack sufficient weather monitoring stations and observational infrastructure, which limits the accuracy of hyper-local forecasting.
• Threat of El Niño Conditions: The forecasting system may face a major challenge this year because of the possible development of El Niño conditions during the later phase of the monsoon season.
  • El Niño conditions are generally associated with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall in India.
• Complexity of Monsoon Dynamics: The Indian monsoon is influenced by multiple factors such as ocean-atmosphere interactions, pressure systems, temperature variations, and regional topography.
  • Forecasting rainfall at micro scales therefore remains scientifically challenging.

Way Ahead

• The system should be expanded to all States and Union Territories to improve nationwide weather forecasting capacity.
• India needs greater investment in automatic weather stations, Doppler radars, and observational infrastructure to improve forecasting accuracy.
• Weather forecasts should be integrated with mobile-based agricultural advisory services to improve last-mile delivery of information to farmers.
• Effective coordination between the IMD, State governments, agricultural institutions, and local administrations will be essential for the successful implementation of the forecasting system.

Source: TH