Future of India-Bangladesh Relationship: Parliamentary Committee on MEA

Syllabus: GS2/International Relation

Context

• According to a recent report by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, India is facing its most formidable strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the 1971 Liberation War.

Key Highlights of Report 

• Strategic Challenge Post-2024 Regime Change: India faces its ‘greatest strategic challenge’ in Bangladesh since the 1971 Liberation War.
  • The ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024 disrupted a decade-long strategic alignment between the two nations.
  • The issue gained further complexity after Hasina was sentenced to death in November, 2025, with Bangladesh’s interim authorities accusing her and her associates of inciting unrest in parts of the country.
• Rising Influence of External Powers: The report warns of increasing Chinese and Turkish influence in Bangladesh, particularly in infrastructure and defense sectors, which could undermine India’s traditional strategic foothold.
• Emergence of a New Political Order in Dhaka: The interim government has banned all Awami League political activities, and the party is barred from contesting the February 2026 elections.
  • The National Citizen Party (NCP) has emerged, led by student activists who spearheaded the movement against Hasina. It has opened avenues for greater Chinese and Pakistani influence in Bangladesh’s political and economic affairs.
• Diminishing Strategic Space for India: The new regime in Bangladesh has adopted a more nationalistic and less India-friendly stance, leading to a visible cooling of bilateral ties.
  • Anti-India sentiments have gained traction, with public protests targeting Indian diplomatic missions, including a significant demonstration at the Indian High Commission in Dhaka in December 2025.
• Connectivity and Economic Cooperation at Risk: India, in 2024, emphasized the importance of multi-modal connectivity, energy cooperation, and trade integration as pillars of the relationship.
  • Projects like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and cross-border rail links were seen as symbols of deepening ties, now potentially at risk due to political shifts.
• Regional and Security Implications: Bangladesh remains vital to India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies, as well as its Indo-Pacific vision.
  • The 4,096-km shared border makes cooperation on border management, counterterrorism, and migration critical to regional stability.
• Ganga Water Treaty and Bilateral Engagement: The panel discussed the Ganga Water Treaty, which is due for renewal in December 2026.
  • No formal discussions have been initiated with Bangladesh, while India has begun consultations with state governments.

The committee has recommended early bilateral engagement to prevent any post-2026 vacuum in water-sharing arrangements, emphasizing that maintaining open communication channels is vital for long-term stability.

India–Bangladesh Relationship: An Overview – Historical Context: India was the first country to recognize Bangladesh after its independence in 1971. a. The Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace (1972) and further evolution into a comprehensive partnership encompassing political, security, economic, and cultural dimensions. – Defence & Security Cooperation: Robust military exchanges between armed forces of both nations, like Sampriti & Bongo Sagar joint exercises. a. Muktijoddha (freedom fighters) programmes renewed: scholarships and medical schemes extended through 2027. b. Cooperation on police, anti-corruption, drug trafficking, fake currency, and human trafficking issues. c. Regular DG-level talks between Border Guards and anti-narcotics agencies. – Connectivity Cooperation: a. Railway Connectivity: Rehabilitation of 6 pre-1965 cross-border rail links, and three passenger trains Maitri, Bandhan, and Mitali Express in operation. b. Road and Inland Waterways: Five bus routes connect Indian cities (Kolkata, Agartala, Guwahati) to Dhaka and Khulna. c. Port Connectivity: Chittagong and Mongla Ports opened for Indian transit use (2023), reducing logistics costs and transport time. 1. Expansion of the BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA), improving logistics in Northeast India and Bangladesh. 2. Plans for a Dhaka–Kolkata express cargo corridor. – Economic and Commercial Relations: Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia; India is Bangladesh’s 2nd largest in Asia. a. FY 2023–24 trade volume: USD 14.01 billion, with Bangladesh exports to India at USD 1.97 billion. – Power and Energy Cooperation: Bangladesh imports 1,160 MW of electricity from India. a. Joint Working Group/Steering Committee on Power manages cross-border electricity trade. b. Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant operational. c. India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline (2023) transports high-speed diesel. d. Indian firms ONGC Videsh Ltd, Oil India, and IOCL are involved in energy collaboration. – Development Partnership: Bangladesh is India’s largest development partner with USD 8 billion in Lines of Credit. a. Projects include roads, railways, ports, and shipping infrastructure. b. 77 completed and 16 ongoing High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) worth USD 50 million. c. Human resource development via ITEC training, scholarships, and capacity-building programs for civil servants, police, and professionals. d. 1,000 ‘Suborno Jayanti Scholarships’ and dedicated portal for Bangladeshi students to study in India.

Source: TH