India’s Fertility and Birth Rates Continue to Decline

Syllabus: GS2/Issues Related To Health

Context

  • The latest Sample Registration Survey (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, released by the Office of the Registrar General of India, points to falling fertility and birth rates, improved survival outcomes, and a rising elderly population.
Methodology
Sample Registration Survey (SRS) uses a dual-record system: continuous enumeration and retrospective half-yearly surveys.
2. It covers over 8.1 million people across all States and Union Territories.
3. It ensures high reliability through field verification and cross-checking of birth and death events.

Key Highlights From the Report 2023

  • State-Wise Variations in CBR and TFR:
    • Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Fell from 19.1 in 2022 to 18.4 in 2023, marking a 0.7-point decline.
      • Highest in Bihar (25.8) and Lowest in Tamil Nadu (12);
    • Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Dropped to 1.9 in 2023, after remaining steady at 2.0 in 2021 and 2022.
      • It is the first decline in TFR in two years, pushing India further below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman.
      • Highest TFR in Bihar (2.8) and Lowest TFR in Delhi (1.2);
birth-rate
total-fertility-rate
  • Mortality Trends:
    • Crude Death Rate (CDR): Declined from 6.8 in 2022 to 6.4 in 2023.
    • Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): Fell to 25 in 2023, a one-point drop from 2022 and a seven-point decline over five years.
      • One in every 40 infants dies before completing the first year of life.
death rate
infant-mortality-rate
  • Rising Elderly Population:
    • The proportion of the elderly (aged 60+) increased by 0.7 percentage points, reaching 9.7% of the total population in 2023, indicating a gradual move towards population ageing.
      • Highest elderly share: Kerala (15%)
      • Lowest elderly share: Assam (7.6%), Delhi (7.7%), and Jharkhand (7.6%)
  • Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB):
    • National SRB:917 girls per 1,000 boys in 2023, reflecting a three-point improvement from the previous period.
      • Highest SRB: Chhattisgarh (974), Kerala (971)
      • Lowest SRB: Uttarakhand (868)
    • However, Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra, and Haryana remain among the States and UTs with SRBs below 900. Bihar’s SRB continues to decline, falling from 964 in 2020 to 897 in 2023.
sex-ratio-at-birth
Understanding Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
– It measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
– A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, meaning the population size remains stable across generations.
– A drop below this threshold suggests:
1. Slower population growth
2. Potential future aging of the population
3. Shifts in family planning and societal norms
Why Is Fertility Declining?
1. Increased female literacy and workforce participation;
2. Delayed marriages and childbearing;
3. Urbanization and rising cost of living;
4. Greater reproductive autonomy and access to contraception;
5. Migration of youth for education and employment abroad;

Significance of Sample Registration Survey (SRS) Report 2023

  • Reliable Vital Statistics: Indicators like Birth rate, Death rate, IMR, MMR, and TFR are essential for tracking population growth, health outcomes, and development goals.
    • For example, decline in TFR in two years signals a demographic transition with long-term implications for labor markets, aging, and social services.
  • Policy and Funding Decisions: SRS data is used by the Ministry of Health, NITI Aayog, and State governments to:
    • Allocate health budgets;
    • Design maternal and child health programs;
    • Monitor progress toward UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs);

Source: TH

 

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