Government Constitutes Committee to Study Demographic Changes

Syllabus: GS2/ Governance

Context

• The Union Government has constituted a high-level committee to study demographic changes chaired by Justice Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar.

Objectives of the Committee

• Assessment of Demographic Changes: The committee will conduct a comprehensive assessment of demographic changes occurring across India with identifying regions experiencing unusual population shifts and analyse changes at the level of religious and social communities.
• Identification of Causes: The committee will examine the possible causes of demographic changes, including;
  • Illegal cross-border migration.
  • Abnormal settlement patterns.
  • Orchestrated migration.
  • Economic opportunities attract migration.
  • Socio-environmental factors.
• Population Stabilisation: The committee will recommend an institutional mechanism for population stabilisation and long-term demographic monitoring.
• Illegal Immigration Management: The committee will recommend a streamlined and time-bound mechanism for;
  • Identification of illegal immigrants.
  • Detention procedures.
  • Deportation processes.
• Strengthening Border Management: The committee will propose measures to strengthen border management through better surveillance systems, improved identification mechanisms and enhanced coordination among agencies.

Demographic Trends in India

• Declining Fertility Rate: According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to around 2.0, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • This indicates that India is gradually moving towards population stabilisation at the national level.
• Declining Birth Rate: According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Report 2024:
  • India’s birth rate declined from 21 per 1,000 population in 2014 to 18.3 in 2024.
  • The decline reflects changing demographic patterns, rising urbanisation, increasing literacy, and improved access to healthcare and family planning.

Border-Related Demographic Challenges

• India–Bangladesh Border: India shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh across West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram.
  • The Assam Movement (1979-1985) was a popular movement against illegal immigrants in Assam. The movement, led by All Assam Students Union (AASU) and the All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad (AAGSP).
• India–Myanmar Border: India shares a 1,643 km border with Myanmar across Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram.
  • Political instability after the 2021 Myanmar military coup increased the inflow of Chin refugees and Rohingya migrants into Manipur and Mizoram.
• India–Pakistan Border: India shares a 3,323 km border with Pakistan.
  • In Jammu and Kashmir, cross-border infiltration from Pakistan has long been associated with terrorism, militancy, and internal security challenges.

Concerns Regarding Demographic Change

• National security and sovereignty: Illegal immigration may create security challenges by increasing risks of infiltration, organised crime, and border instability.
• Social harmony: Demographic changes linked to religion, ethnicity, or language may increase social tensions, identity politics, and conflicts over land and employment.
  • Ethnic violence in Manipur between Kuki and Meitei highlighted tensions between communities over land, identity, and demographic concerns.
• Resource distribution: Large-scale migration may increase pressure on housing, healthcare, education, welfare schemes, and employment opportunities.
  • Border districts in Assam and Tripura have witnessed concerns regarding land encroachment, competition for jobs, and pressure on public resources due to undocumented migration.
• Protection of indigenous and tribal communities: Indigenous and tribal communities, especially in the North-East region, fear loss of cultural identity, land rights, and political representation due to demographic changes.

Challenges

• Lack of Updated Census Data: The last Census in India was conducted in 2011, while the next Census is scheduled for 2027.
  • The absence of updated Census data may affect the accuracy of demographic assessments and policymaking.
• Human Rights Concerns: There are concerns regarding the possibility of discrimination, social polarisation, and wrongful exclusion.
• Federal and Administrative Challenges: Different States may have varying political, administrative, and social responses to migration-related issues.
• Border Management Challenges: India shares long and porous international borders with neighbouring countries and effective border management requires advanced surveillance technology, infrastructure development, and better inter-agency coordination.

Way Ahead

• Strengthen Border Infrastructure: India should improve border fencing, surveillance systems, and technological monitoring mechanisms to prevent illegal infiltration.
• Conduct Timely Census: The government should ensure timely conduct of the Census and strengthen civil registration systems to enable evidence-based policymaking.
• Ensure Constitutional Safeguards: Any action related to identification or deportation must follow due process and protect constitutional rights.
• Inclusive Population Policies: Population stabilisation measures should focus on; women’s education, healthcare access, awareness programmes, voluntary family planning measures. Coercive population control measures should be avoided.

Source: TH