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Three-child policy of China

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In News

Recently, China’s legislature formally amended the country’s Population and Family Planning Law to allow couples to have 3 children.

About

  • Now, Couples in China, would for the first time be allowed to have a third child in relaxation of family planning rules.
  • China also announced a number of policy measures aimed at boosting declining birth rates.
  • Chinese officials claim the one-child policy implemented for over 3 decades has prevented over 400 million births.

 

Background

  • In 2016, a “two-child policy” was introduced that largely failed to boost birth rates.
    • The prime reason quoted was the high education cost of children.
  • Hence, the amended law calls on the authorities to “take supportive measures” like those in finances, taxes, insurance, education, housing and employment.
    • China’s regulators in recent weeks have taken drastic measures to reduce education costs.
    • They are trying to overhaul the booming private education industry, which may be ordered to go non-profit.
    • It will reduce families’ burdens as well as the cost of raising and educating children.

Need for such regulation

  • The Chinese Decennial Census reported rapidly declining birth rates over the past decade. 
    • The National Bureau of Statistics said on May 11 that 12 million babies were born last year, the lowest number since 1961.
  • 60+ Age Group saw significant Population rise:
    • The census said China’s population was 1.41 billion in 2020, an increase of 72 million since the last census in 2010.
    • The census recorded 264 million in the age group of 60 and over, up 5.44% since 2010 and accounting for 18.70% of the population. 
  • Declining Working Age Population:
    • Those in the 15-59 age group were 894 million persons, down by 6.79% since 2010 and accounting for 63.35% of the population. 
    • China’s workforce in the 15-59 age bracket peaked at 925 million in 2011
    • That number was down to 894 million in this census and would drop to 700 million by 2050.
  • The ageing crisis “might be the biggest challenge the Chinese nation faces in the next century.”
    • It will increase the social security spendings of the government.
    • Productivity will go down and demand for higher wages may go up.
    • This may hamper the Chinese model of economic growth based on Cheap Exports.

Indian Case regarding population Control

 

  • Current Status:
    • Presently, India’s population stands at nearly 134 crores.
    •  As per the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates, India’s population will hit 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.64 billion by 2050. 
    • This would make India become the most populous country, overtaking China.
  • India for long has been trying to implement a two-child policy.

 

Need for population Control in India

  • Big-Push Theory 
    • Harvard economist Harvey Leibenstein has demonstrated how population growth tends to erode incomes.
    • It clearly explains how poverty is a big hurdle in population control and vice versa.
  • Malthusian Theory 
    • Although it failed, yet it partially justifies the hunger menace and inefficiencies in the PDS of India.

 

Past Experience

  • Recently UP Population Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation, and Welfare) Bill, 2021 created a stir with the following provisions..
    • Any citizen who “violates” a two-child policy would be barred from:
      • contesting local bodies polls,
      • applying for, or getting promotion in, government jobs, and
      • even receiving government subsidies.
  • The Supreme Court also upheld a Haryana government law barring persons with more than two children from contesting local body polls.
  • Role of poverty reduction schemes and economic reforms 
    • Poverty reduction measures and economic reforms have raised labour productivity and employment opportunities.
    • They allowed families to empower women and reduced fertility rates as rational choices.
  • Coercive v/s Conditional and Awareness Approach:
    • India, during the 5th Five-year plan, announced the National Population Policy which also had provision of forced sterilisation.
    • It was highly resisted and failed at the end.
    • Since then, the government has adhered to poverty alleviation programs along with awareness creation.
    • These have been quite successful by reducing the Total Fertility Rate, very near to the replacement rate of 2.1.

 

Challenges in Indian Population Control

 

  • North-South Divide:
    • The Southern States have successfully implemented Population Control Schemes much earlier than the Northern States.
    • Now they are feeling that their share of seats in Parliament is getting reduced.
  • Religious Polarisation
    • There are communal tensions over the population issue as evident from media discussions after the UP Population Control Bill.
  • Distributional Aspects of Population 
    • As per Keynes, poor demand for investment may onset an economic recession in places of falling or ageing population of consumers.
  • Patriarchy
    • There is a very high Son preference.
    • The case study of unwanted girls being named Nakusa is itself a testimony of such unruly behaviour.
    • It has lead to a highly skewed sex ratio in few states.

 

Way Ahead

 

  • Adherence to Cairo International Conference on Population and Development in 1994
    • The Cairo Consensus called for 
      • the promotion of reproductive rights, 
      • empowering women, 
      • universal education, 
      • maternal and infant health to untangle the knotty issue of poverty and high fertility. 
    • The consensus also demands an increase in the rate of modern contraceptive prevalence, male contraception. 
    • States instead of releasing population control measures can start to adhere to implementing the Cairo consensus.
  • Focussing on Women 
    • Population stabilisation is not only about controlling population growth, but also entails gender parity.
    • So, states need to incentivize later marriages and childbirth, promoting women’s labour force participation, etc.
    • Further educated and empowered women have been found to have lower TFR.
  • The population as a Resource rather than Burden:
    • Economic Survey, 2018-19 has highlighted a sharp slowdown in population growth in the next 20 years with a generational North-South Divide in India.
    • So instead of population control policies at the state level, India needs a universal policy to utilize population in a better way.

 

What is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

  • It is also known as the fertility rate of a population.
  • TFR is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
    • She was to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) throughout her lifetime.
    • She was to live from birth until the end of her reproductive life.
  • The replacement level TFR is 2.1.
    • It means the population will neither grow nor decline.

Source: TH

 
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