Global Environment Outlook

Syllabus: GS3/Environment

Context

• The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition: A Future We Choose (GEO-7), was released during the seventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi.

About

• GEO-7 is UNEP’s flagship assessment published for the first time in 1997.
• It is a major scientific report that reviews the planet’s environmental health, policy effectiveness, and future trends, providing crucial, participatory, science-based data to guide global environmental action and policy.

Major Highlights of the Report

• Tipping Points: Several tipping points could occur in the next few years to decades:
  • shifts in intensity and timing of monsoons, 
  • loss of Arctic sea ice which is likely to alter the jet stream, 
  • change the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events; 
  • abrupt thaw of permafrost likely to result in a substantial release of methane within a few years; 
  • the coral die-off is already underway and a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to rapid shifts in the climate in Europe and Africa.
• The report highlights several alarming trends: Global warming is worsening and exceeding previous estimates.
  • 1 million species face extinction.
  • 20–40% of land is degraded.
  • Solid waste already exceeds 2 billion tonnes annually and will rise further.
  • Plastic production may triple by 2060 without policy shifts.
  • 9 million people die annually from pollution.
  • Climate change would cut 4% off annual global GDP by 2050 and 20% by the end of the century.
• Global Warming: The world has warmed 1.3°C, with projections showing potential warming between 2.4°C to 3.9°C by 2100, potentially faster than IPCC models estimate.

• Interconnected Drivers: Drivers like population growth, urbanization, resource-intensive lifestyles, and governance failures intensify environmental pressures.
• Failures of Current Policies: The current policies are insufficient — without transformation, none of the environmental SDGs will be achieved, and internationally agreed environmental goals (including the Paris Agreement, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and Aichi Targets) will not be met.
• India Specific: Shifts in monsoon systems can affect South Asia including India which further impacts water, agriculture, and food systems.
  • Changes in monsoon circulation could exacerbate droughts, floods, and water scarcity across India.
  • India faces land degradation affecting approximately 33% of its geographical area (115-120 million hectares), with major impacts on agricultural productivity and food security. 
  • Assessments indicate India’s current targets are “Highly insufficient” for a 1.5°C pathway, requiring strengthened ambition and international support.

Policy Recommendations

• The report outlines target-seeking scenarios showing how the world could reach environmental goals if transformative efforts occur across sectors.
• Transformation requires:
  • Ambitious policies.
  • Inclusive governance.
  • Systematic integration of environmental goals in decision-making.
  • Wide participation from governments, civil society, businesses, and Indigenous Peoples. 
• The report identifies four major systems where transformation is critical:
  • Economic & Financial Systems: Reform to internalize environmental costs and align finance with sustainability goals. 
  • Materials & Waste System: Shift to a circular economy that minimizes waste and maximizes reuse and recycling. 
  • Energy System: Accelerate renewable energy deployment and phase out fossil fuels, while ensuring energy access. 
  • Food System: Promote sustainable diets, reduce food loss/waste, and enhance resilient food production.
• Urgent transformation will deliver societal, economic, and environmental benefits worth far more than the cost of inaction — potentially generating trillions in economic gains.

Source: IE