A Multipolar World with Bipolar Characteristics

Syllabus: GS2/International Relation

Context

• The world is no longer led by a single superpower but is increasingly shaped by a renewed bipolar dynamic between the United States and China, even as it moves toward greater multipolarity, underscoring the need for deeper multilateralism.

About Global Dynamics of International Relation

• The global dynamics have shifted from the Cold War’s rigid bipolarity to a multipolar order characterized by economic interdependence, strategic rivalry, and technological disruption.

Current Global Scenarios (2025)

• Competitive Multipolarity: States pursue self-interest via minilateral forums (e.g., QUAD, SCO) rather than global institutions.
• Strategic Techno-nationalism: AI, semiconductor, and energy technologies determine geopolitical leverage.
• Environmental Diplomacy: Climate change and resource scarcity redefine global cooperation lines.
• Cultural Pluralization of Power: Influence shifting from Western ideological dominance to culturally diverse governance paradigms (Asia, Africa, Latin America).
• Reemergence of Regional Powers: China, India, Türkiye, Brazil challenging U.S.-centric hegemony.
• Strategic Realignments: Iran-Russia cooperation and inter-Korean engagement.
• Hybridization of Conflict: Cyber warfare, AI, and trade sanctions replace traditional military aggression.
• Economic & Energy Transitions: Hydrogen and AI technologies, shaping geopolitical influence.
• Fragmented multilateralism: Multipolar cooperation coexists with regional turbulence.

Rise of New Bipolarity: US and China

• Systemic Rivalry Between China & US: The new bipolarity is economic-technological, not ideological, with power diffused through networks and data-driven influence.
  • Contemporary international relations are shifting toward a ‘dual-core system’ where the US and China dominate global decision-making, particularly in technology and trade.
  • In the 21st century, China’s economic expansion, technological prowess, and BRI have positioned it as a systemic rival to the United States.
• US Reassertion in the Western Hemisphere: Recently, the United States has launched its largest military mobilisation in the Caribbean in decades, marking a major escalation against Venezuela.
  • It comes after the release of National Security Strategy (NSS) that designates Latin America and the Caribbean as a strategic priority.
  • NSS asserts that the US must block the influence of external powers (Monroe Doctrine), particularly China, in the region and secure the Western Hemisphere as an American sphere of dominance.
• The strategic competition between the US (the reigning power) and China (the rising power) mirrors the pre-World War I tensions between Britain and imperial Germany.
  • A prolonged confrontation in economic, technological, and military appears inevitable as both powers vie for global dominance.

Why Is the World Both Multipolar and Bipolar?

• Multiple Significant Powers: Rising economies like China, India, and the EU state exert increasing economic, diplomatic, and military influence, contributing to a multipolar context.
• Underlying US–China Competition: The strategic rivalry between the US and China structures many key geopolitical interactions mirroring a bipolar dynamic, despite multipolar elements.
• Fluid Alliances and Middle Powers: Countries such as India, Brazil, and others pursue strategic autonomy while engaging with major poles, acting as independent centers of influence rather than automatic allies.
• Interwoven Polarity Forms: Contemporary geopolitics exhibits traits of multipolarity, bipolarity, and even nonpolarity (where influence becomes diffusion across states and non-state actors).

Drivers of the Hybrid Order

• Power Diffusion and Economic Shifts: The relative decline of Western economic dominance and the rapid expansion of Asian economies have decentralized global power, a core characteristic of multipolarity.
• Strategic Rivalries: The US-China relationship continues to function as a central axis around which many regional and global policies revolve, reinforcing a bipolar dynamic.
• Institutional Complexities: International institutions and alliances, such as the United Nations, G20, BRICS, and regional groupings, allow smaller powers agency within broader multipolar interactions.
• Global Crises: Transnational challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and cybersecurity require diverse coalitions that go beyond bilateral rivalries, highlighting the need for multipolar cooperation.

Implications for World Order

• Greater Complexity in Decision-Making: Decision-making on global issues is more complex, requiring negotiation among diverse interests rather than domination by a single power with power distributed across multiple actors.
• Competition with Cooperative Potential: Other powers and institutions offer avenues for collaboration, potentially reducing the risk of direct confrontation, while U.S.–China rivalry fuels geopolitical competition.
• Multiplex Governance Structures: Global governance increasingly involves coalitions that cut across traditional power poles and emerging actors, blending regional priorities with global commitments.

Russia’s Role: Swing Great Power

• Russia remains militarily formidable and geopolitically assertive though economically weaker.
  • Its vast nuclear arsenal, resources, and geographic reach make it a pivotal actor.
  • Russia’s close partnership with China reflects shared opposition to Western dominance, but Russia is wary of becoming China’s junior partner.
• This ambivalence positions Russia as a swing power, capable of tilting the balance between the USA and China.
  • However, the war in Ukraine continues to constrain Russia’s strategic maneuvering, even as it seeks to restore influence across its post-Soviet sphere.

India’s Strategic Autonomy and Multipolar Diplomacy

• India’s foreign policy under the ‘Vishwaguru’ and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ doctrines emphasizes:
  • Non-alignment 2.0: Engaging major powers without formal alliances.
  • Balancing strategy: Partnering with the US on technology and defense while preserving ties with Russia (energy, arms) and engaging China through BRICS and SCO.
• India and the Indo-Pacific Strategy: India’s centrality in the Indo-Pacific framework reflects its geographical and strategic significance:
  • Promotes a ‘free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific’ aligning with US rhetoric.
  • India’s participation in the QUAD Alliance (US, Japan, Australia, India) signifies alignment with Western democracies on Indo-Pacific security.
  • Counters China’s BRI through the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) launched at G20 2023.
  • Strengthens naval capabilities and logistics pacts (LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA) with the US.
• Economic and Technological Dimensions: China remains one of India’s top trading partners, despite political tensions.
  • India benefits from US technology partnerships under initiatives like Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET)
  • Receives increasing US investment in renewable energy, AI, and digital infrastructure.
  • India aims to replace China in global supply chains, especially in semiconductors and manufacturing.
  • Simultaneously, India seeks South-South cooperation with BRICS+ nations to preserve strategic space.
• Global South Leadership: India positions itself as the voice of the Global South, advocating reform in multilateral institutions like the UN and IMF.
  • It strengthens its legitimacy in a multipolar world, distinguishing it from both U.S. hegemony and China’s assertive rise.

Conclusion: A Bipolar Multipolarity

• The emerging world order of the late 2020s is neither fully multipolar nor strictly bipolar. The world enters an era defined by competition, recalibration, and constrained dominance.
• Russia’s position between the USA and China paradoxically lends the system a bipolar character within a multipolar framework.

Source: TH