Opportunity Cost of Excessive Militarisation

Syllabus: GS3/ Defence

Context

• With Military expenditures reaching $2.7 trillion in 2024, the UN warns that a small fraction could eradicate extreme poverty, hunger, and finance climate adaptation in developing countries, highlighting the opportunity cost of excessive militarisation.

Global trend in Militarization

• Concentration of Power: The top five spenders (US, China, Russia, India, Germany) together account for nearly 60% of total global military expenditure, reflecting a highly asymmetrical global security order.
• The 9 nuclear-armed countries (US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel) possess approximately 12,241 warheads as of January 2025.
• Regional Militarisation:
  • Europe witnessed the sharpest increase, 17% in 2024, due to the Ukraine conflict, making it the fastest-growing region in terms of military expenditure.
  • Asia-Pacific is witnessing a prolonged arms build-up, especially driven by US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific and India’s rising security commitments.
  • The Middle East remains one of the world’s highest per-capita spenders on defence due to protracted conflicts.

Opportunity cost of Militarisation

• Developmental Trade-Offs: The UNDP estimates that 4% of global defence budgets could eradicate hunger by 2030, and 10% could provide universal primary education and healthcare.
  • Redirecting 15% of military expenditure (about $387 billion) could fully fund climate adaptation costs in vulnerable nations.
• Arms Race and Insecurity: High spending by major powers (US, China, Russia, India, Germany) fuels regional rivalries and global mistrust.
  • Militarisation often creates a “security dilemma” where one nation’s defence build-up triggers counter-spending by rivals, leading to spiralling expenditures without real peace.
• Humanitarian and Ethical Concerns: Funds diverted to arms mean continued poverty, hunger, and lack of basic services for millions.
  • Militarisation sustains conflicts and proxy wars, increasing displacement and humanitarian crises.
• Environmental Costs: The global military-industrial complex contributes nearly 5% of global carbon emissions, higher than civil aviation.
  • Rich countries spend about 30 times more on defence than on climate finance for developing nations. This undermines collective climate security.

Impact of Ongoing Armed Conflicts

• Ukraine-Russia Conflict: The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine led to the emission of 175 million tonnes of CO₂, primarily from military operations and subsequent reconstruction efforts.
• Gaza Reconstruction: Rebuilding Gaza post-conflict is projected to release approximately 60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, comparable to the annual emissions of countries like Portugal or Sweden.

Way Ahead

• Rebalance Budgets toward People: Governments could earmark the peace dividend from arms cuts for universal schooling, universal healthcare, renewable energy and disaster preparedness.
• High-income countries should redouble their commitments to Official Development Assistance (ODA) and climate funds. The UN report emphasizes that development is the first line of defense against conflict
• Prioritize Diplomacy: Invest in dialogue, mediation, preventive diplomacy.

Source: DTE