In News
- In recent years, there is now a certain ‘cold peace’ between India and Pakistan relations.
More about the news:
- India-Pakistan relations have entered an age of minimalism: Â
- There is very little bilateral contact today, even fewer expectations of a bilateral breakthrough.
- And yet, there is a certain ‘cold peace’ between the traditional rivals — on the Line of Control, inside Kashmir and in the verbal exchanges between the two sides.Â
- Relations till now:
- India-Pakistan relations of the kind we have been used to over several decades now – characterised by intense engagement, high value terror attacks, Indian responses, a breakdown of talks, and eventual resumption of talks; rinse and repeat.
Bilateral Relations between India-PakistanÂ
- Attempts for engagement:Â
- India has made a number of attempts to build normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan.
- The External Affairs Minister’s (EAM) also took the initiative to propose a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue in December 2015.Â
- Trade and Commerce:
- Bilateral rade:
- 2020-2021:
- The total bilateral trade between India and Pakistan was USD 329 million in 2020-2021.Â
- 2021-2022:
- This has gone up to USD 514 million in 2021-2022, as per the ministry of commerce, with Indian exports outnumbering imports from Pakistan.
- 2020-2021:
- Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status:
- India had accorded MFN status to Pakistan in 1996.Â
- A Pakistan cabinet decision of November 02, 2011 to reciprocate remains unimplemented
- Bilateral rade:
- Humanitarian:
- In 2017, India suggested to Pakistan to revive the mechanism of the Joint Judicial Committee which looks into humanitarian issues of fishermen and prisoners in each other’s custody.
- Cultural:Â
- The visit to religious shrines between India and Pakistan is governed by the Bilateral Protocol on Visits to Religious Shrines signed between India and Pakistan in 1974.Â
- Kartarpur Corridor:Â
- Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi inaugurated the Kartarpur Sahib Corridor in 2019 on the occasion of the 550th birth Anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev Ji and flagged-off the first group of pilgrims to Gurudwara Kartarpur Sahib.
Major Issues between both the countriesÂ
- India’s relations with Pakistan are the most complex of its ties with its neighbours.Â
- Terrorism:
- Terrorism emanating from territories under Pakistan’s control remains a core concern in bilateral relations.
- Pulwama cross-border terror attack:Â
- In a heinous and despicable act of cross border terror attack on the convey of Indian security forces in Pulwama, Jammu & Kashmir in 2019, 40 security personnel were martyred
- On J&K:
- India’s revocation of the special status of J&K:
- The relations between the two countries have remained strained for years now and took a turn for the worse in August 2019 when India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.
- Pakistan’s stand:
- In 2019, Pakistan announced unilateral measures, including the downgrading of diplomatic relations, suspension of bilateral trade and review of bilateral agreements with India.Â
- India has urged Pakistan to review its unilateral actions in respect of relations with India so that normal channels of diplomatic communications are preserved.
- India’s revocation of the special status of J&K:
- Pakistan’s ambitions and Demands:
- It aims to change the status quo in Jammu and Kashmir with a three-pronged strategy:Â
- Violent destabilization of Kashmir while raising human rights concerns in global forums,Â
- Reopening the Kashmir question that India believed was settled after the 1971 war, andÂ
- Leveraging global nuclear concerns to force Indian concessions on Kashmir.Â
- It aims to change the status quo in Jammu and Kashmir with a three-pronged strategy:Â
Possible reasons cited for the ‘cold peace’ between the Nations
- Historical legacy:
- The relationship is the history of missed opportunities, failed attempts at conflict resolution, political inability to resolve conflicts and the lack of political will on either side.Â
- Hate & populism:
- For all the talk about conflict resolution, there is no easy way to resolve their complicated conflicts.Â
- Resolving the bilateral conflict resolution may get harder due to rising populism fuelled by online hate.Â
- No conflict resolutions till now:
- None of the key bilateral conflicts between the countries has been resolved since the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
- So, the traditional logic in India that it should first settle its conflicts with Pakistan and then move on to addressing the bigger challenges may not be applicable.
- Defending Kashmir:
- There is now a certain confidence in India today that it does not need to talk to Pakistan to ensure peace inside Kashmir.
- There is growing confidence in India about its capability to defend Kashmir against Pakistani aggression or terror attacks.
- Other geopolitical challenges:
- Both sides today are preoccupied with other geopolitical challenges — Pakistan with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, and India with an aggressive China on its borders.
Way Ahead
- The frequent acknowledgement by both countries that they have much to gain from trade and connectivity in economic areas has taken a back seat to revival of tensions, the shadow of unresolved disputes and geopolitical considerations by both sides.
- Although issues between Pakistan and India are long-standing, progress is possible.Â
- Leaders on both sides of the border need to develop a national consensus in support of the peace process and bring all stakeholders including the core constituencies, media and opposition parties on board.
Source: TH