A China-led Trilateral Nexus as India’s New Challenge

Syllabus: GS2/International Relation

Context

• Recently, China hosted the first-ever trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming, on the sidelines of the China-South Asia Exposition. It has far-reaching implications for South Asia — particularly for India.

Historical Foundations: Motivations Behind the Nexus

• 1962 War Legacy: The India-China War of 1962 set the foundation for the enduring China-Pakistan alliance.
  • For China, Pakistan served as a strategic buffer to constrain India.
  • For Pakistan, China emerged as an unflinching economic and military benefactor.
• Economic and Military Dependence: Pakistan owed over $29 billion to China (By the end of 2024)
  • 80% of Pakistan’s arms imports originate from China.
  • China continues to shield Pakistan at the UN, especially in matters involving terrorism.
• Bangladesh’s Emergence and Early Tensions: Bangladesh was carved out of Pakistan’s eastern wing in 1971.
  • China, which had supported Pakistan during the 1971 war, recognized Bangladesh only in 1976.

Resurfacing of an Old Strategy: ‘China-Pakistan Plus One’

• Historical Roots: Pakistan considered leveraging China, East Pakistan, and Nepal to disrupt India’s access to its northeast via the Siliguri corridor, as far back as 1965.
• Current Manifestations: Terror attacks in Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and Pahalgam (2025) have seen decisive Indian retaliation.
  • India’s diplomatic offensives — including suspension of treaties, trade halts, and targeted strikes — have exposed Pakistan’s vulnerabilities.
  • Simultaneously, India’s border responses in Doklam (2017) and Galwan (2020) caught China off guard.

Implications for India

• Two-Front Strategic Pressure: With China to the north and Pakistan to the west, Bangladesh’s growing alignment with them potentially opens a third vector of strategic concern on India’s eastern flank.
  • This triangulation could stretch India’s military and diplomatic bandwidth.
• Encirclement Anxiety: The nexus reinforces the perception of a Chinese-led strategy to encircle India, especially with the expansion of BRI and potential military cooperation in Bangladesh.
• Vulnerability To Siliguri Corridor:Siliguri Corridor (aka ‘Chicken’s Neck’) that connects mainland India to its northeastern states becomes even more critical.
  • Any increased Chinese or Pakistani presence in Bangladesh could threaten this narrow corridor.
• Operational Challenges: The use of Chinese-made military hardware by Pakistan during recent escalations, and Bangladesh’s participation in Pakistani naval exercises (Aman-25), suggests greater interoperability among the three militaries.

Implications for the Indo-Pacific

• Maritime Realignment: The nexus could facilitate Chinese naval access to the Bay of Bengal via Bangladesh, complementing its presence in Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka).
  • It would enhance China’s ability to project power across the Indian Ocean.
• Undermining Regional Groupings: China’s trilateral diplomacy may undermine India-led regional initiatives like BIMSTEC and BBIN, while further sidelining SAARC, which has already been weakened by India-Pakistan tensions
• Quad and ASEAN Response: The U.S., Japan, Australia, and India (QUAD) may need to recalibrate their Indo-Pacific strategy to account for this emerging axis.
  • ASEAN nations, particularly Myanmar and Sri Lanka, could be drawn into this evolving contest for influence.
• Economic Leverage: China’s deepening economic ties with both Pakistan and Bangladesh — through infrastructure, trade, and debt — could shift regional supply chains and investment flows away from India.

India’s Strategic Outreach

• Maldives has shifted closer to India economically despite its president’s earlier anti-India stance.
• Nepal’s BRI projects with China remain stalled due to funding concerns.
• Sri Lanka’s new leadership has visibly aligned with India’s redlines.
• India has not obstructed regional energy initiatives, despite souring ties with Bangladesh.

India’s Potential Approach

• Strategic and Military Posturing: Strengthen border infrastructure in the Northeast, especially around the Siliguri Corridor, to deter encirclement.
  • Enhance maritime surveillance and naval presence in the Bay of Bengal to counter Chinese influence in Bangladesh.
  • Modernize defense capabilities and increase joint military exercises with allies like QUAD.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Rebuild trust with Bangladesh through high-level visits, economic incentives, and people-to-people ties.
  • Deepen ties with Afghanistan to limit Pakistan’s leverage and counter Chinese outreach.
  • Assert redlines diplomatically, making it clear that provocations will have economic and political consequences.
• Economic Leverage: Expand regional trade and connectivity projects like the India-Bangladesh-Nepal energy corridor.
  • Offer competitive alternatives to Chinese investments, especially in infrastructure and digital connectivity.
  • Use economic tools (e.g., trade restrictions, port access denial) selectively to signal disapproval without alienating neighbors.
• Regional Coalition Building: Strengthen BIMSTEC and SAARC as platforms for regional cooperation excluding China.
  • Promote trilateral and multilateral dialogues with like-minded countries to dilute China’s influence.
  • Support democratic institutions and civil society in neighboring countries to counter authoritarian influence.
• Information and Cyber Strategy: Counter disinformation campaigns and propaganda that aim to destabilize India’s regional image.
  • Invest in cybersecurity to protect critical infrastructure from potential threats linked to Chinese tech.
• Strategic Patience and Flexibility: Avoid overreaction to provocations; instead, use calibrated responses to maintain moral high ground.
  • Adapt to regime changes in neighboring countries with pragmatic diplomacy rather than ideological rigidity.

Source: TH