Syllabus: GS3/Environment and Ecology
Context
- The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released the ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)’.
Key Temperature Projections:
- 2024: The year 2024 was not only the hottest year on record but also the first year to breach 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
- 2025–2029: There is a 70% chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C.
- 80% chance of at least one of the next 5 years surpassing 2024 temperature.
- 86% chance that at least one year will cross the 1.5°C threshold.
- Avg. global temperature predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than avg. for 1850-1900.
- Predicted precipitation patterns for May-Sep 2025-2029 to be wetter than average.
- 1% chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years .
Regional Climate Outlook
- South Asia: Expected to continue with wetter-than-usual years (except 2023), and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be dry.
- Arctic: Projected warming of ~2.4°C over winters—3.5x faster than global average over the next five winters (November to March).
- Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
- Regional anomalies (2025–2029):
- Wetter: Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, Northern Siberia.
- Drier: Amazon region.
- India: India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years.
- IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025.
| Paris Agreement – It is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, adopted in 2015, at the COP21 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). – It aims to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. – The 1.5°C limit is a goal, not a legal boundary. 1. A permanent breach implies long-term warming over 20–30 years, not a single year. – The Paris Agreement emphasizes nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and encourages all countries to take climate action. 1. Countries must review and update their NDCs every five years to enhance their efforts and increase ambition over time. 2. 180 of the 195 UNFCCC countries are yet to submit their next round of NDCs for 2031-35 before the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). World Metrological Organisation – It is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories established in 1950. – It is the specialised agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences. – It is headquartered in Geneva. – Its supreme body is the World Meteorological Congress. |
Source: TH
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