Reframing India’s Foreign Policy in a Fragmented Global Order

Syllabus: GS2/ International Relations

Context

• In Parliament, PM Modi acknowledged the undergoing structural shift from rules-based multilateralism to power-driven, transactional geopolitics.

Erosion of Multilateralism

• Decline of Consensus-Based Institutions: For decades, institutions like the United Nations and World Trade Organization anchored global rule-making through collective decision-making and diplomacy.
  • However, this rule-based order has weakened as major powers increasingly bypass consensus mechanisms, rendering institutions less effective.
• Rise of Transactional Power Politics: Multilateral platforms are being supplanted by transactional diplomacy where power and bilateral leverage outweigh collective norms.
  • The United States’ recourse to unilateral tariffs and a retreat from collaborative frameworks reflects this trend.
• Rise of Competitive Geoeconomics: China has become the largest trading partner of over 120 countries and has diversified supply chains and markets. The United States, in response, has prioritised technological containment and supply-chain restructuring.
  • In this evolving environment, middle powers such as India face heightened vulnerability due to shifting economic alignments.

Evolution of strategic autonomy 

• Cold War Origins: Strategic autonomy emerged during India’s leadership in the Non-Aligned Movement. It allowed India to avoid bloc politics during the Cold War.
• Post-Cold War Transition: After 1991, the doctrine became less structural and more declaratory. India joined the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in 2017, signalling alignment with Indo-Pacific security concerns.
  • India procured the S-400 system from Russia despite U.S. sanctions pressure.
• Swing State Narrative: U.S. analysts increasingly describe India as a “swing state” in U.S.-China rivalry.

Current Policy of India

• India’s current foreign policy is characterised by multi-alignment, economic diplomacy, and strategic flexibility. It seeks to;
  • Deepen defence and technology cooperation with the United States and Indo-Pacific partners.
  • Maintain defence and energy ties with Russia.
  • Manage competition and engagement with China through dialogue and deterrence.
  • Promote the “Neighbourhood First” policy and regional connectivity in South Asia.
  • Advocate reform of global institutions to reflect contemporary power realities.
• India’s approach attempts to preserve autonomy while expanding partnerships that serve economic growth and technological advancement.

Way Ahead

• Flexible Multilateral Engagement: In a fragmented order, flexible coalitions and issue-based alignments can preserve India’s strategic space.
  • Platforms such as BRICS provide opportunities to promote economic cooperation, and reform of global financial governance.
• Diversified Trade Strategy: India’s exports remain concentrated in select markets. Reducing overdependence on any single partner requires deeper trade engagement with ASEAN, Africa, and West Asia. 
  • Expanding comprehensive economic partnerships and integrating into global value chains will enhance resilience against tariff volatility.

Source: TH