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Recently, Armenia has been witnessing growing anti-government protests against possible concessions over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, disputed with neighbouring Azerbaijan.
About the Conflict
- Protestors are demanding the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Nikol Pashinyan and are taking the means of strike like, chanting anti-government slogans, blocking metro from moving etc.
- Location: Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous and heavily forested region that under international law is recognised as part of Azerbaijan.
Image Courtesy: Press
- History:
- Ethnic Armenians who constitute the vast majority of the population there reject Azeri rule.
- After Azerbaijan’s troops were pushed out of the region following a war in the 1990s, these ethnic Armenians have been in administrative control of Nagorno-Karabakh, with support from Armenia.
- September 2020: Clashes broke out that rapidly escalated to become the deadliest since the 1990s.
- Failed attempts to resolve: In the past three decades, ceasefires brokered by Russia and the United States have failed to hold.
- Azerbaijan’s Conditions for Peace: Azerbaijan wants Armenia to officially recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. This factor will eliminate the Armenian historical presence in the region, as Azerbaijan will impose racial and discriminatory policies against the indigenous Armenians of the region.
- Latest developments:
- Armenia has been witnessing domestic unrest since April this year related to Pashniyan’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
- There have been plans to oust their government or at least increase street pressure to prevent the PM from providing further concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey when it comes to the security and right of self-determination of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh (called Artsakh) and the recognition of Armenian Genocide.
- Criticism against Armenian PM:
- In Armenia, Pashinyan’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict received criticism after he agreed to hand over Armenian control of several territories to Azerbaijan.
- Pashinyan increased the salaries of the country’s security forces, in an attempt to win their loyalty.
- The ongoing protests in Armenia have been marked by police brutality and the detaining of protestors, activists as well as Parliament members.
- Pashinyan’s stance on Nagorno-Karabakh: There has been a clear shift in Pashinyan’s views on Nagorno-Karabakh post May 2018, when he was elected leader of Armenia. Much of Pashinyan’s rhetoric was aimed at winning nationalist support.
Challenges of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
- In this disputed region, there are hundreds of civilian settlements, residents of which would be directly impacted and potentially displaced if any large-scale war were to break out between the two countries.
- Any military escalation would draw regional powers like Turkey and Russia more deeply into the conflict.
- The energy-rich Azerbaijan has built several gas and oil pipelines across the Caucasus (the region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea) to Turkey and Europe.
- This includes the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (with a capacity of transporting 1.2 billion barrels a day), the Western Route Export oil pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline.
- Some of these pipelines pass close to the conflict zone (within 16 km of the border) and in an open war between the two countries, the pipelines could be targeted, which would impact energy supplies.
- For both nations, these would create immediate challenges and war would not be in the interest of both countries.
Implications
- The conflict exposed the weakness of NATO and the European Union to help its ally at the time of crisis. NATO was seen as a divided house, incapable of taking decisive action against the biggest threat to its allies.
- The biggest loss of reputation is for Russia, which chose to play neutral selling arms to both the parties to the conflict, despite a military pact with Armenia and a base there but had insisted it would not get involved in the conflict with Azerbaijan unless Armenian territory itself came under threat.
- China could emerge as one of the main beneficiaries of the ceasefire – gaining a new route for the BRI plus leverage over Iran during crucial negotiations. The corridor between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan would offer Beijing a second route to Europe in the South Caucasus bypassing Iran.
Neighbours’s Stand
- Turkey: Support to Azerbaijan
- Supporting Azerbaijan’s claims is its ally Turkey, which is adding its own conditions to the proposal, one of which includes pushing Yerevan to cease international lobbying for official recognition of the Armenian Genocide, an issue that has been a long-standing conflict between Yerevan and Ankara.
- Armenia has said approximately 1.5 million people were killed in 1915 during a genocide by the Ottoman Empire.
- While Turkey accepts that many Armenians living in the empire were killed by Ottoman forces during the First World War, it has consistently rejected the number of victims and has denied that the killings were systematic or constitute genocide.
- Russia: Supporting Both
- It sees the Caucasus and Central Asian region as its backyard. Russia enjoys good ties with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and supplies weapons to both.
- But Armenia is more dependent on Russia than the energy-rich, ambitious Azerbaijan.
- Russia also has a military base in Armenia.
- But Moscow, at least publicly, is trying to strike a balance between the two.
India’ Response
- No policy for South Caucasus:
- India does not have a publicly articulated policy for the South Caucasus, unlike “Neighbourhood First”, “Act East” or “ Central Asia Connect”.
- The region has remained on the periphery of its foreign policy radar.
- Asymmetry in relations:
- There is visible asymmetry in India’s relations with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
- Armenia is the only country in the region with which it has a friendship and cooperation Treaty (signed in 1995), which, incidentally, would prohibit India from providing military or any other assistance to Azerbaijan in case Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh spills over to the territory of Armenia.
- India has received three heads of states from Armenia, but none from Azerbaijan or Georgia.
- Adjusted Stances:
- India has adjusted its position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as the situation has evolved over the years.
- In the initial stages of the conflict in 1993, India had endorsed the concept of respect for territorial integrity.
- For quite some time now, India’s emphasis has been on a peaceful resolution of the conflict through diplomatic negotiations.
- Kashmir Angle:
- Armenia extends its unequivocal support to India on the Kashmir issue whereas Azerbaijan not only supports but also promotes Pakistan’s narrative on this issue.
- India has every reason not to support Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity as Azerbaijan has shown scant regard for India’s territorial integrity violated by Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir.
- Trade:
- Armenia: The levels of India’s trade or investment with Armenia are, however, very low.
- Azerbaijan: ONGC/OVL have made relatively small investments in an oilfield project in Azerbaijan and GAIL is exploring the possibilities of cooperation in LNG.
- Azerbaijan falls on the International North South Transport Corridor route, connecting India with Russia through Central Asia;
- It can also connect India with Turkey and beyond through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars passenger and freight rail link.
- Concerns for India:
- It is difficult for India to publicly endorse Nagorno-Karabakh’s right for self-determination in view of the possible repercussions it can have repercussions for India.
- Adversaries may misuse it not only by making erroneous connections with Kashmir but also re-ignite secessionist movements in certain parts of India.
- India’s Approach at Present:
- India has adopted a balanced and neutral stance and made a politically correct statement in which it has expressed its concern.
- India called for restraint and immediate cessation of hostilities and resolution of the conflict peacefully through diplomatic negotiations.
- India has also expressed its support for the OSCE Minsk Group’s continued efforts towards peaceful resolution, implying that India is not in favour of involvement of any other entity, including Turkey.
Way Ahead
- Mediation with the aim of creating negotiations in good faith is a vital need.
- Confidence-building measures between Azerbaijan, the Republic of Artsakh and Armenia are needed.
Source: IE
