Myanmar’s internal situation impact on India

June 3, 2022

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In Context

A pro-military junta group in Myanmar has been carrying out a series of bloody attacks mostly targeting those opposed to last year’s coup.

The United Nations’ humanitarian relief agency says the number of people displaced within strife-torn Myanmar has for the first time exceeded 1 million, with well over half the total losing their homes after a military takeover last year.

What led to the military coup in Myanmar?

In early 2021, the country’s Parliament had been expected to endorse recent election results and approve the next government.
The military refused to accept the results of the vote, which was widely seen as a referendum on the popularity of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi.
- As head of the National League for Democracy, she had been the de facto civilian leader since her election in 2015.
The military says the November 2020 general election was full of “irregularities”, and has maintained that the results are therefore not valid.

How has the international community responded?

The United Nations has warned of a deepening humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, with “an intensification of violence and a rapid rise in poverty”.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused the security forces of operating a “reign of terror”.
The US, UK and European Union have imposed sanctions on military officials.
China blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the coup, but has backed calls for a return to democratic norms.

India’s Stand

India had shown commitment to build a robust relationship with Myanmar over the past two decades which intensified after the democratic process began in 2011.
India has taken an arguably balanced diplomatic approach on Myanmar, calling for restraint, restoration of democracy and release of political prisoners, but also maintaining its lines of communication with the military.

Impact on India

India’s Northeastern border with Myanmar remains on top of the bilateral agenda.
It has hampered the india initiatives in terms of land outreach towards the vibrant economies of South East Asia and has retarded development in the Northeast.
It has forced thousands to flee into India.
- It has led to a series of unfortunate incidents that indicate a resurgence in anti-India posturing in the North Eastern region.
  - This is creating impediments to the Centre’s overtures for future peace initiatives.
It is seen as an adverse impact on its Act East policy.

Options Available for India

Favourable bilateral relations with Bangladesh : It offers an opportunity for opening a new axis of land-sea connectivity for promoting trade and commerce with Southeast Asia.
- There is a need to upgrade the multitude of land routes to the seaports of Mongla and Chittagong in Bangladesh, from Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura.
- In addition, there is a need to use inland water transport (IWT) to exploit the shared river connectivity of the Brahmaputra and Barak rivers.

There is a need for continued engagement, both formal and informal, with the warring factions in Myanmar.
Appropriate infrastructure such as container depots, cold storage facilities and seamless highways will have to be developed on a war footing.
There is a need to raise an empowered department for monitoring and facilitating projects that support India’s Act East policy, transcending all critical Ministries like Home, External Affairs, Industry, Surface-River Transport, etc.
To defang the strike capability of the insurgent groups there is a need to create “integrated defence zones”.
- These should be jointly manned by the Tatmadaw (Myanmar army) and the Indian Army/Assam Rifles.

Conclusion and Way Forward

India should implement an unbiased and proactive “Neighbourhood First” strategy that facilitates the Act East policy crucial for India’s long-term security and economic interests
There is a need to ensure the continued economic development of Northeastern states.
- Positive overtures by the Government of India will not only improve the security situation but reassure the locals that the region’s interest is paramount..

India’s Act East Policy

It focuses on the extended neighbourhood in the Asia-Pacific region.
The policy which was originally conceived as an economic initiative, has gained political, strategic and cultural dimensions including establishment of institutional mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation.
The North East of India has been a priority in our Act East Policy (AEP). AEP provides an interface between North East India including the state of Arunachal Pradesh and the ASEAN region.
Objectives:
- To promote economic cooperation, cultural ties and develop strategic relationships with countries in the Asia-Pacific region through continuous engagement at bilateral, regional and multilateral levels thereby providing enhanced connectivity to the States of North Eastern Region including Arunachal Pradesh with other countries in our neighbourhood.

Source:IE