Down To Earth (16-31 July, 2025)

Scope of the Study

• Between May and June 2025, study over 40 cities, categorizing them into:
• Mega/Metro Cities (population over 4 million);
• Million-Plus Cities (1–4 million);
• Sub-Million Cities (under 1 million)

Core Finding: Urban India Is Gridlocked

• Indian cities suffer from chronic congestion—not just metros but also tier-2 and tier-3 cities.
• Congestion is worsening travel times, air pollution, and quality of life, with a significant mental health toll.
• The findings were drawn from city mobility plans, independent research, and on-ground reportage— often relying on outdated or incomplete data due to the lack of official systems tracking urban mobility trends.

Non-Motorised Transport (NMT): Walking and Cycling

• Nearly half of urban commuters still walk or cycle to work.
• Cities like Mumbai (47%), Kolkata (48%), and Delhi (42%) show high reliance on non-motorised transport (NMT).
• Smaller cities like Varanasi (54.5%), Singrauli (64%), and Visakhapatnam (55%) also depend heavily on NMT.
• NMT has grown: Mega cities: ↑5%; Sub-million cities: ↑3.2%
• However, most cities lack safe infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists, with exceptions like Mysuru and Kochi making modest progress.

Private Vehicles Dominate the Roads

• In 2024–25, India registered 25.5 million vehicles, with 88% for personal use.
• Two-wheelers dominate in metro cities like Bengaluru (27.1%), Chennai (29.6%), and Hyderabad (29%).
• In million-plus cities, two-wheeler usage exceeds 30%, peaking at 43% in Dehradun.
• Surprisingly, car usage is rising in sub-million cities, with Gangtok (54%) leading the pack—often due to poor public transport connectivity.

Transport Mode Trends (2023 Data)

• Private vehicles dominate urban travel: Over 88% of new vehicle registrations in 2024–25 were private.
• Two-wheelers are most used in tier-2 cities (30–43% modal share in places like Kochi, Dehradun, Thiruvananthapuram).
• Car usage is especially high in small cities like Gangtok (54%) and Shillong (25%).

Public Transport Crisis

• Bus usage has dropped:
• Mega cities: ↓5.69%
• Indore, Jaipur, and Bhopal: fleets shrinking or dismantled.
• Metro rail investment has led to minimal modal shift: only +0.81%
• Exception: Srinagar, where 64% use buses due to vehicle restraint policies.

Congestion Index (TomTom 2024)

• Average congestion index: Mega cities: 39.05%; Million-plus cities: 34.63%; Sub-million cities: 28.47%;
• Bengaluru, Chennai, and Kolkata rank among the slowest global cities for travel.

City Profiles and Trends

• Delhi: Leads in car additions (513 cars/day in 2024– 25).
• Despite massive metro and bus investments, pollution and congestion remain severe.
• Key pedestrianization experiments (Ajmal Khan Rd, Chandni Chowk) failed due to poor maintenance.
• Jaipur: Public bus fleet shrunk drastically from 400 to 110
• Focus has shifted to metro expansion over costeffective bus systems.
• Lucknow: Flyovers and uncontrolled e-rickshaw growth worsen congestion.
• Working-class commuters spend up to 20% of daily income on transport.
• Chandigarh: Highest per capita vehicle density.
• Originally well-planned, now struggling with rapid satellite town expansion (Mohali, Panchkula).
• Indore: Dismantled its model BRTS; metro unaffordable for the poor.
• The court mocked congestion concerns, calling them ‘pointless.’
• Singrauli: Dominated by coal trucks, unsafe for cyclists and pedestrians.
• Public bus service is almost non-existent.

Key Insights

• Congestion Crisis: Peak-hour travel times in cities are nearly double those during off-peak hours.
• Three Indian cities—Kolkata, Bengaluru, Pune— rank among the top five globally for slowest urban travel.
• In cities like Delhi, average speeds during peak hours fall below 25 km/hr.
• Public Transport Decline: Bus ridership is shrinking across mega and metro cities, with some systems dismantled (e.g. Indore and Bhopal's BRTS).
• Despite huge investments, metro systems have yielded only marginal improvements in modal share.
• Public transport accounts for less than 25% of total trips in most cities.
• Private Vehicle Surge: Personal vehicles make up 88% of all new vehicle registrations.
• Car dependence is rising sharply, especially in smaller towns bypassing the two-wheeler phase (e.g. Gangtok 54% trips by car).
• In cities like Dehradun and Thiruvananthapuram, two-wheelers dominate up to 43% of trips.
• Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) Still Vital: Walking and cycling constitute 42–48% of trips in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata.
• Despite growing use, cities lack infrastructure— footpaths and cycle lanes are scarce or encroached.
• Intermediate Public Transport (IPT) Fills the Void: In the absence of formal public systems, shared autos, e-rickshaws, and minibuses dominate in cities like Patna and Ranchi.
• Growth: Million-plus cities: ↑5.98%; Sub-million cities: ↑3.4%
• In cities like Patna and Ranchi, IPT accounts for a higher share than formal public transit.

Core Issues Identified

• Data Gaps: Most cities lack updated or consistent mobility data.
• Many cities lack updated data on modal share, travel demand, and congestion impacts.
• For example, data for Kolkata is 25 years old, while cities like Ahmedabad and Tiruchirappalli have no reliable modal data at all.
• Urban Sprawl & Longer Commutes: Commuters now travel farther: Mega cities: ↑11.5% trip rates, ↑9.4% trip lengths.
• Example: Delhi trip length doubled from 6 km to nearly 11 km.
• Peripheral housing has expanded, pushing people towards private modes.
• Weak Policy Coordination: Fragmented governance undermines integrated planning.
• Infrastructure Bias: Cities prioritize roads and flyovers over people-centric mobility.
• Traffic Congestion & Lost Productivity: Peak-hour travel times can double, costing top metros over $22 billion annually in lost productivity and fuel waste.
• Air Pollution & Health Risks: Vehicular emissions contribute significantly to PM2.5 and NOx levels. In cities like Surat, transport accounts for 85% of NOx emissions.
• Road Safety Crisis: India recorded 1.68 lakh road fatalities in 2022. Vulnerable users—pedestrians, cyclists, and children—are disproportionately affected.
• Equity & Accessibility: Low-income groups spend up to 40% of their income on transport.
• Women and marginalized communities face barriers to safe and affordable mobility.

Environmental and Public Health Toll

• Vehicles contribute:
• ~40% of particulate matter (PM) in Delhi;
• ~81% of NOx emissions (source: TERI, ARAI, IITM)
• Traffic congestion increases roadside exposure to toxic air—especially harmful in cities with poor bus networks.

Government Policies & Frameworks: For Urban Mobility in India

• National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP): Focuses on people-centric mobility, integration of land use and transport planning, and promotion of NMT.
• Transforming India’s Mobility – NITI Aayog’s 3C Framework: Advocates for Clean, Convenient, and Congestion-free mobility through four pillars: Connect Bharat, Optimize Travel Footprint, Promote Seamless Public Transport, and Adopt Green Technologies.
• Smart Cities Mission & TOD Policy: Encourages compact, mixed-use development integrated with public transport.

Public Transport Expansion

• Metro Rail Projects: India is investing ₹3 trillion in metro infrastructure between 2022–2027.
• Delhi leads with a 395 km network, though ridership remains below projections.
• Electric Bus Initiatives: Schemes like PM e-Bus Sewa aim to deploy 14,000 e-buses nationwide.
• Shared Mobility & ITS: Cities like Surat and Bengaluru are adopting Intelligent Transport Systems and shared mobility platforms.

Active Mobility & Safety

• Karnataka Active Mobility Bill: Aims to protect pedestrian and cyclist rights, mandating infrastructure development.
• Safe System Approach: Emphasizes forgiving road design, reduced speed limits, and inclusive planning.

Recommendations & Interventions

• Rebuild bus systems as core public transport.
• Enhance last-mile connectivity and feeder services.
• Expand pedestrian/cycling infrastructure— especially for short (<5 km) commutes.
• Restrict car ownership: Parking proof mandates, congestion charges.
• Promote zero-emission vehicles and create lowemission zones.
• Financing tools: Land value capture, climate funds, and user-pays models.

Conclusion: A Call for Radical Rethinking

• India’s urban mobility is stuck—literally and figuratively. The report urges policymakers to:
• Invest in safe, inclusive infrastructure for walking and cycling.
• Improve public transport reach and affordability.
• Collect and update mobility data to inform smarter planning.
• Shift focus from car-centric development to people-centric mobility.

Rethinking Urban Mobility: Designing Cities for People

Context

• As Indian cities expand, mobility challenges grow more complex. Yet, despite increasing travel distances, a significant number of daily trips still fall within short ranges — particularly under 5 km, creating a crucial opportunity for cities to foster walkable, cyclable, and transit-friendly environments.

Short Trip Distances

• Data from the Census 2011 reveals that a majority of urban trips in several major cities are within 5 km:
• Kolkata: 56%
• Delhi: 48%
• Mumbai: 44.4%
• Bengaluru and Chennai: 47%
• These figures highlight the immense potential for promoting non-motorised transport (NMT) and enhancing last-mile connectivity through sustainable means.

Beyond Infrastructure: Need for Restraint Measures

• While scaling up public transport infrastructure remains essential, it must be complemented by effective demand management strategies:
• Parking management and variable pricing;
• Congestion and road pricing mechanisms;
• Policy reforms to internalize the full cost of private vehicle ownership;
• These steps are critical to addressing the growing threat of urban congestion.

Clean Mobility Pathways and Low-Emission Zones

• Cities must also pursue long-term strategies to decarbonise transport:
• Accelerate adoption of zero-emission and electric vehicles (EVs);
• Establish low-emission zones (LEZs) with:
• Expanded pedestrian and cycling networks;
• Intensified public transport services
• This multi-pronged approach supports both climate goals and livable cities.

Sustainable Financing: New Models for Urban Transport

• A transformative shift in urban mobility requires reliable and diversified funding. Beyond increasing budgetary allocations, cities can explore:
• Land value capture mechanisms;
• Polluter pays principles;
• Accessing climate finance funds;
• Importantly, financing strategies must be adapted to suit the unique needs of different city classes.

Data-Driven Mobility Planning

• A persistent challenge in Indian urban transport is the lack of up-to-date and granular data. This hampers effective planning and monitoring. Every intervention — from NMT infrastructure to EV incentives — need to include:
• Clear targets;
• Institutional mandates;
• Measurable indicators
• All aligned with service level benchmarks for consistent accountability.

Conclusion: Cities for People, Not Cars

• As emphasized in the National Urban Transport Policy, urban spaces must prioritize people over vehicles.
• Building compact, inclusive, and sustainable transport systems is not just a necessity — it is a transformative opportunity for the future of India’s cities.

Reimagining Agglomeration: Future of Urban Productivity in India

Context

• Cities in India like Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Delhi grapple with traffic gridlocks, housing shortages, and environmental stress.

About

• Agglomeration — the concentration of firms, workers, and ideas — has long been a hallmark of urban economic theory.
• From Alfred Marshall to Edward Glaeser, economists have praised dense urban centres for unlocking productivity through shared infrastructure, labour pools, and innovation.

Promise and the Pitfalls of Urban Clustering

• Urban India contributes more than 60% to the national GDP, a share projected to rise to 70% by 2030.
• Cities continue to draw investment and labour, backed by government promises of smart infrastructure and green growth. Yet, the realities on the ground tell a different story:
• Bengaluru’s daily congestion stretches over 190 km, costing ₹1,170 crore in lost productivity.
• Mumbai faces an acute housing crunch and inflated real estate costs.
• Delhi is suffocating under persistent air pollution and administrative overload.
• Pune, despite high liveability scores, has lost one-third of its green cover in a decade.
• Bhubaneswar and Nagpur are seeing productivity losses of 10–13% among informal workers due to extreme heat.
• These trends signal that simply clustering people isn’t enough — quality of interaction is key.

When Density Stops Working

• The core of effective agglomeration lies in enabling people to collaborate, move, and innovate. But when:
• Commutes exceed two hours;
• Housing consumes half of household income;
• Heat and pollution threaten health and wages,…the gains from urban concentration begin to erode.
• India’s current model is increasingly one of partial agglomeration: dense, but dysfunctional.

A Systemic Shortfall: Municipal Performance and Planning

• A 2024 municipal performance study uncovered troubling gaps:
• Only 94 out of 152 municipalities had accessible planning data.
• Just 59 had updated GIS-based development plans.
• Only 37 had active mobility plans.
• A mere 16 had full town planning scheme coverage.
• While 113 municipalities reported hiring qualified planners, governance remains fragmented and inconsistent.
• This lack of coherent planning undermines the productivity gains that urban density is supposed to deliver.

Productivity Gap: A Call for Strategic Urbanism

• The Asian Development Bank highlights a key disparity: Wage elasticity with respect to urban density in India is just 1–2%, compared to 4–6% in more advanced urban economies. This suggests not just infrastructure deficits, but a deeper lack of coordinated urban strategy.

What’s Needed?

• Robust data systems for real-time planning and service delivery.
• Flexible, scenario-based planning to adapt to climate, demographic, and economic shifts.
• Governance reform to eliminate jurisdictional overlaps and integrate housing, transport, and environment.
• Spatial planning that links people with jobs, services, and innovation networks.

Global Benchmarks: Lessons from Asia

• India can draw lessons from peers who’ve translated density into success:
• Singapore: A model of integrated land use and transport planning. Its MRT system serves over 3 million daily riders, supported by congestion pricing and compact design.
• Ho Chi Minh City: Higher labour productivity than Hanoi, driven by strategic infrastructure and industrial concentration.
• These examples underscore that agglomeration works — but only when backed by smart design.

Deglomeration or Reagglomeration?

• India’s urban landscape today shows signs of deglomeration, not due to overachievement, but under-preparation.
• The expected outcomes — innovation, productivity, opportunity — have been realized unevenly, hamstrung by poor infrastructure and fragmented governance.

Path Forward: Designing Density with Purpose

• Reagglomeration demands a deliberate, secondgeneration approach to urban development that prioritizes:
• Quality over quantity in urban expansion.
• Resilience to climate and environmental risks.
• Equity in access to jobs, housing, and services.
• The old agglomeration curve can no longer be relied upon to lift cities automatically. It needs now be redrawn — thoughtfully, inclusively, and sustainably.