Syrian Crisis

• The army fought alongside the National Defence Forces, a pro-government paramilitary group, and was supported by Hezbollah, Iran and Russia.

• This Kurdish-dominated, United Statesbacked group controls parts of eastern Syria.
• While not a direct enemy of Assad, they are part of the wider opposition forces.

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the largest fighting force, was in control of Idlib for years before this offensive.
• It is the primary group, originally the al-Qaeda branch in Syria responsible for capturing and controlling most parts of Syria, including Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama.

• The Syrian National Army is a Turkishbacked rebel force in northern Syria.

• Before November 27, Syrian opposition forces were mostly confined to their stronghold in the northwestern governorate of Idlib, following a ceasefire brokered in March 2020 by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• The map below shows Syria‟s territorial control before November 27.

• On Wednesday, November 27, just one day after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect, Syrian opposition forces, led by HTS, launched an offensive from their base in the Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria.
• The rebel group said their attacks were in retaliation for recent Syrian government assaults on cities in Idlib, including Ariha and Sarmada, which had resulted in several civilian casualties in recent weeks.
• The Syrian regime responded by shelling rebelheld areas while the Russian air force carried out air strikes.

• By Thursday, November 28 the rebels had captured more territory and expelled government forces from villages in eastern Idlib, then began pushing towards the M5 highway, a strategic road that leads south to the capital, Damascus, about 300 km (186 miles) away.

• By Friday, November 29 rebel forces had entered parts of Aleppo city after detonating two car bombs and engaging government forces on the city‟s western edge, according to a Syrian war monitor and fighters.
• Syrian state television said Russia was providing Syria‟s military with air support.

• By Saturday, November 30 images and videos began circulating online showing rebel fighters taking photos next to the ancient Citadel of Aleppo as they advanced through the city.
• After capturing Aleppo, the rebels advanced south, towards Hama.

• By Sunday, Syrian and Russian jets intensified their air attacks in Idlib city and positions in Aleppo as government forces tried to slow the advance of opposition fighters.
• In his first public comments since the start of the offensive, President al-Assad said his forces would continue to defend the government‟s “stability and territorial integrity against terrorists and their supporters”

• Fierce battles continued in the outskirts of Hama as Syrian opposition fighters advanced to the strategic central city Syria‟s fourth largest.
• As the site of the most brutal politically motivated massacre in Syria’s recent history, the city also held symbolic importance.

• The Syrian government said its counteroffensive had pushed back opposition fighters attempting to advance into Hama.
• In contrast, opposition forces said they captured more Syrian troops and Iran-backed fighters in fierce battles.

• Opposition fighters continued to push further south as they captured more towns in the Hama governorate.
• A regime air strike killed Syrian photographer Anas Alkharboutli, who was working for German news agency dpa, near the city of Hama.
• Alkharboutli, 32, had long documented Syria‟s 13- year war.

• By Thursday, December 5 the rebels announced they had full control of Hama. Seizing the city brought them one step closer to severing the coastal cities of Tartous and Latakia from the rest of the country.
• Latakia is a key political stronghold for al-Assad and Syria‟s Alawite community, as well as a strategic Russian naval base.

• The capture of Hama paved the way to Homs, Syria‟s third-largest city.
• Homs, a key crossroads city linking Damascus to Syria‟s coastal areas, lies approximately 46 km (29 miles) south of Hama.

• On Saturday, December 7 southern forces started moving and Deraa-based opposition fighters said they seized control of the city, the fourth strategic loss for President Bashar al-Assad‟s forces in a week.
• Deraa, which lies only a few kilometres from the border with neighbouring Jordan, is known as the cradle of the 2011 revolution.

Russia:

• The country is preoccupied with the Ukraine war.
• This led to the reduced troop presence in Syria.

Hezbollah:

• Hezbollah, which at one point sent thousands of its fighters to shore up Assad‟s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong conflict with Israel.
• Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed by Israel in the last year could be as high as 4,000 including its all key leaders.

Turkey:

• Over the year to mid-2024, Türkiye maintained its military installations in Syria and added a single new position, bringing the number to a total of 126.
• These include 12 bases and 114 outposts, most of which are located in Aleppo governorate (58) and Idlib (51)
• Turkey is supporting the Syrian opposition not just to weaken Assad but to target the Kurdish military stationed in an autonomous Kurdish enclave in northern Syria across the Turkish border.

Iran:

• In 2024, the Iran–Israel proxy conflict escalated to a series of direct confrontations between the two countries
• On the evening of 13 April 2024, Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, targeting among other unconfirmed trajectories sites in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Arad region and two airbases in the Negev desert under Operation True Promise.
• This led to a shift in focus of Iran from Syria to Israel and Hezebollah.
• The country has seen its proxies across the region degraded by Israeli airstrikes.

• Syria's economy remains in a dire state due to sanctions, war destruction, and corruption.
• There have been signs of internal dissent and protests, particularly in historically supportive areas like Suwayda and Daraa, demanding economic relief and political reforms.
• The Syrian pound has depreciated against the US dollar, and consumer price inflation is high.

• Syrian rebel groups took control of the capital after a lightning-fast offensive across the country.
• The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed alJolani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria.

• Economists point out that the fall of Assad, and the accompanying weakening of Russia and Iran after the loss of a key ally in the region, will give the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Western powers a welcome boost.
• Assad’s downfall and the “de facto defeat” of Russia and Iran in the process, has massive implications for markets in terms of unwinding fears around the dollar‟s pre-eminence, while increasing the momentum that could develop behind Trump‟s global trade vision

• Turkey, which shares a 560 miles long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

• Turkey used its Syrian proxies to push back Kurdish forces which pose a threat at its southern border.
• Despite being designated as a terrorist organisation in Ankara, Turkey has operated alongside HTS.
• Turkey is set to be the biggest external beneficiary of Assad‟s fall.

• However, Turkey stands to benefit only if the Assad regime is replaced by a functioning government able to face the daunting task of delivering stability to a diverse country with competing factions that will need billions of dollars in aid and investments to rebuild

• Meanwhile, Israel has lauded the fall of the Assad regime but challenges still persist for it as the new regime in neighbouring Syria would be of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which is an offshoot of AlQaeda and is a designated terrorist organisation in Israel.
• Israel is seen as a beneficiary of Assad‟s fall because of its impact on Iran, which has used Syria as a supply route to its proxy in Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah.
• Israel has looked to severely weaken this supply chain as part of its military campaign against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
• Israel took control of the buffer zone in Golan Heights in what it termed as part of its "enhanced preparedness."
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel for almost 60 years, will remain part of Israel “for eternity".

• The other most notable “loser” from Assad‟s overthrow is his ally and backer Russia, which has helped prop up Assad‟s regime since the start of the civil war.
• Moscow has a vested interest in keeping the new government on side as it operates an air base in Hmeimim, along with a naval base in Tartus that gives it access to the Mediterranean Sea.
• Rebel forces have given the Kremlin assurances that they would guarantee the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria, but Russia‟s long-term military presence in the country is seen as far from certain.

• In the aftermath of opposition rebel groups swiftly toppling Syria's government, Iran's leadership is struggling to come to terms with the loss of long-time ally Bashar Assad.
• Syria has been a cornerstone of what Tehran describes as the "Shia Crescent," a geopolitical vision aimed at linking Iran to its allies in Lebanon and beyond.
• Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, once described Syria as the "pillar" of the "Axis of Resistance," a network of Iranian-backed groups that oppose Israel and US influence, in the Middle East.
• Syria has also provided a corridor for Iranian weapons and other support to reach its proxies in Lebanon.
• Analysts argue that while Iran might continue supporting proxy groups in the region, its financial and military capacity has been significantly diminished.

• The first protests against Assad quickly spread across the country, and were met by security forces with a wave of arrests and shootings.
• Some protesters take up guns and military units defect as the uprising becomes an armed revolt that will gain support from Western and Arab countries and Turkiye.

• A bombing in Damascus is the first by al Qaeda's new Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front, which gains in power and starts crushing groups with a nationalist ideology.
• World powers meet in Geneva and agree on the need for a political transition, but their divisions on how to achieve it will foil years of U.N.-sponsored peace efforts.
• Assad turns his air force on opposition strongholds, as rebels gain ground and the war escalates with massacres on both sides.

• Lebanon's Hezbollah helps Assad to victory at Qusayr, halting rebel momentum and showing the Iran-backed group's growing role in the conflict.
• Washington has declared chemical weapons use a red line, but a gas attack on rebel-held eastern Ghouta near Damascus kills scores of civilians without triggering a U.S. military response.

• Islamic State group suddenly seizes Raqqa in the northeast and swathes more territory in Syria and Iraq.
• Rebels in the Old City of Homs surrender, agreeing to move to an outer suburb - their first big defeat in a major urban area and a precursor to future "evacuation" deals.
• Washington builds an anti-Islamic State coalition and starts air strikes, helping Kurdish forces turn the jihadist tide but creating friction with its ally Turkiye.

• With better cooperation and more arms from abroad, rebel groups gain more ground and seize northwestern Idlib, but Islamist militants are taking a bigger role.
• Russia joins the war on Assad's side with air strikes that turn the conflict against the rebels for years to come

• Alarmed by Kurdish advances on the border, Turkey launches an incursion with allied rebels, making a new zone of Turkish control.
• The Syrian army and its allies defeat rebels in Aleppo, seen at the time as Assad's biggest victory of the war.
• The Nusra Front splits from al Qaeda and starts trying to present itself in a moderate light, adopting a series of new names and eventually settling on Hayat Tahrir alSham (HTS).

• Israel acknowledges air strikes against Hezbollah in Syria, aiming to degrade the growing strength of Iran and its allies.
• U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led forces defeat Islamic State in Raqqa.
• That offensive, and a rival one by the Syrian army, drove the jihadist group from nearly all its land.

• The Syrian army recaptures eastern Ghouta, before quickly retaking the other insurgent enclaves in central Syria, and then the rebels' southern bastion of Deraa.

• Islamic State loses its last scrap of territory in Syria.
• The U.S. decides to keep some troops in the country to prevent attacks on its Kurdish allies.

• Russia backs a government offensive that ends with a ceasefire with Turkey that freezes most front lines.
• Assad holds most territory and all main cities, appearing deeply entrenched.
• Rebels hold the northwest.
• A Turkey-backed force holds a border strip
• Kurdish-led forces control the northeast.

• The Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 triggers fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, ultimately reducing the group's presence in Syria and fatally undermining Assad

• Rebels launch a new assault on Aleppo.
• With Assad's allies focused elsewhere his army quickly collapses.
• Eight days after the fall of Aleppo the rebels have taken most major cities and entered Damascus, driving Assad from power.

• The country also faced particularly high youth unemployment rates.
• At the start of the war, discontent with the government was strongest in Syria's poor areas, predominantly among conservative Sunnis.
• These included cities with high poverty rates, such as Daraa and Homs, and the poorer districts of large cities.

• According to the World Bank, over 20% of Syrians were living in poverty before 2011.
• The poverty rate had been steadily increasing since the early 2000s due to rising food prices, an influx of refugees, and a decrease in private sector employment.

• The unrest coincided with the most intense drought ever recorded in Syria, which lasted from 2006 to 2011.
• This resulted in widespread crop failure, an increase in food prices and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers.

• The persistence of corruption, sectarian bias towards Alawites, nepotism and widespread bribery that existed in party, bureaucracy and military led to popular anger that resulted in the eruption of the 2011 Syrian Revolution.
• The country ranked 129th out of 183 countries as per the 2011 Corruption Perceptions Index.
• The country ranked 178th out of 180 countries as per the 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index.

• Before the Baath Party took power in 1963, Syria was a democracy in name only.
• The state of democracy in Syria during the Shukri al-Quwatli presidency was highly limited due to the strong influence of the military.
• The Ba'ath Party coup in Syria in 1963 effectively ended all forms of democracy in the country and ushered in a period of authoritarian rule.
• Citizens were not allowed to freely express their opinions or to organize for political purposes.
• Human rights violations were commonplace, and the government often resorted to violence in order to maintain control.

• In 2011, successful uprisings that became known as the Arab Spring toppled Tunisia„s and Egypt„s presidents.
• This gave hope to Syrian pro-democracy activists.

• In September 2010, The Economist newspaper described the Syrian government as "the worst offender among Arab states", which engaged in imposing travel bans and restricted free movement of people.
• More than 400 individuals in Syria were reportedly restricted by Assad regime's travel bans in 2010.

• Iran has long supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government and has used its Shia allies and proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah, to help prop up Syrian forces.
• Iran has also provided military, financial and logistical support for Shia militias fighting in Syria and has been accused of trying to spread its own version of Shia Islam in the country.

• Hafez alAssad ruled an authoritarian military regime from 1970 to 2000.
• His son, Bashar alAssad, succeeded him and remains in power.
• The Assad family is part of a ruling elite made up of predominantly Alawites, an offshoot of Shi‟i Islam, who make up an estimated 12% of the population.
• Sunni Muslims comprise 75% of the Syrian population, while Christians make up about 10%.
• Many Syrians oppose the Assad regime‟s brutal tactics in dealing with protests and opposition.

• The Iranian government has long supported the Assad regime in Syria.
• Iran, with a predominantly Shi’i population, is believed to have given the Assad regime military aid in the form of training, weapons, and intelligence sharing.
• Aiding Assad ensures an ally against Iran's regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

• Kurds are the world's largest ethnic group without a state.
• Kurds make up sizable minorities in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.
• Kurdish militias have served as key U.S. allies in the fight against ISIS.

• An extremist Shia militia group based in Lebanon with historically close ties to the Iranian government and the Assad regime.

• Various names for the same group that split off from al-Qaeda in Iraq.
• ISIS aims to create an Islamic state.
• Although it once controlled territory in Iraq and Syria, it has been pushed out of Iraq and controls a shrinking amount of territory in eastern Syria.
• ISIS has recruited fighters from the region and from around the world.
• It has been able to sustain operations through oil revenue, taxes, ransoms, and selling ancient artifacts from conquered territories.

• A variety of political groups and armed rebels – some with ties to extremists make up Syria‟s opposition to the Assad regime.
• Sharp disagreements and a lack of unity have made it difficult for coalitions to unite and gain international support.

• Early in the Syrian Civil War, many Gulf states (including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) viewed support for the Syrian opposition as a way to reduce Iran’s influence in the region.
• As the Syrian conflict has continued and instability grows in the Middle East, there is increased division among Gulf states about how to resolve the Syrian conflict.

• The lengthy conflicts in Syria and Iraq have had a tremendous impact on Jordan.
• The more than 600,000 Syrian refugees who have fled to Jordan have severely stressed the country’s resources.

• From the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Turkey has been one of the main supporters of Syrian opposition forces.
• As part of the U.S.-led coalition, Turkish President Erdogan supported airstrikes against ISIS targets.
• Turkey opposes Kurdish gains in the region based on concerns that its own Kurdish minority will want more autonomy.
• Turkey has taken in an estimated 3.5 million Syrian refugees.

• After the Assad regime used chemical weapons against Syrian civilians in 2013, the Obama administration threatened military force.
• Instead, UN Security Council Resolution 2118 authorized the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to establish procedures for the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons.
• In 2014, the Obama administration led an international coalition fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
• The United States provided air support, special forces support, and weapons to Syrian rebels and Kurdish forces fighting ISIS.
• The United States largely avoided direct conflict with Syrian forces, but President Trump ordered airstrikes against Syrian air bases (April 2017) and suspected chemical weapons research and storage facilities (April 2018) in response to alleged chemical weapons attacks against Syrian civilians.

• Russia has strong historical ties to the Assad regime.
• The Russian government has provided Assad‟s government with troops, air support, weapons, training, and diplomatic support at the UN and in peace talks.
• Russia has an air base and navy base in Syria.
• Russia brokered a deal in 2013 to aid Syria in removing its chemical weapons stockpile under UN Security Council Resolution 2118.
• Russia intervened in Syria in October 2015 with the stated goal of targeting ISIS, but the United States claims that Russian forces have instead targeted non-ISIS rebel forces fighting the Assad regime.

• The United Nations held the first peace talks in 2012 in Geneva.
• A transition period which would result in Assad’s removal was discussed, but in 2015 Assad began consolidating his position with Russia and Iran‟s backing.

• In 2016 there was a second attempt at peace talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.
• "De-escalation zones" were agreed upon, which temporarily reduced the violence.
• Eventually, it failed when the Syrian regime continued airstrikes in the de-escalation areas.

• Two years later in January 2018, Russia sponsored new talks in Sochi.
• The Sochi talks were called by Russia‟s president, Vladimir V. Putin, with the stated goal of breaking a longstanding impasse in negotiations to end the seven-year civil war.
• But the Syrian opposition refused to take part in the meeting because Assad‟s removal from power was not a precondition for the talks.

• In 2020 Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire which reduced the intensity of fighting.
• Since then, news of the conflict has rarely made the headlines.
• But while international interest may have waned, the fighting continues and millions of displaced Syrians face brutal winters, floods that wash away shelters, and financial issues

• Syria, under the Assad family first Hafez alAssad and later Bashar al-Assad has consistently supported India on critical issues, particularly regarding Kashmir.
• While many Islamic nations rallied around Pakistan's stance on Kashmir, Syria was one of the few countries that stood apart, often voicing its support for India's sovereignty.
• The Assads' secular governance aligned with India's own principles, creating a strong foundation for collaboration.
• Syria has historically been an important member of the Nehru-championed Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).
• Even after India revoked Article 370 in 2019, which granted Jammu and Kashmir special autonomy, the Syrian government unequivocally described it as India's "internal matter".

• India has consistently championed a Syrian-led resolution to the conflict in accordance with the United Nations Security Council.
• India has maintained its embassy in Damascus, even during the peak of Syria's civil war.
• New Delhi has historically supported Syria's claims over the Golan Heights - contested by Israel.
• In 2010, former President Pratibha Patil visited Damascus and reiterated that stance.

• Beyond diplomacy, economic and cultural exchanges have been a cornerstone of India-Syria relations.
• In 2003, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Syria and signed MoUs on biotechnology, small industries, and education.
• India provided a $25 million line of credit and a $1 million grant for a biotechnology centre in Damascus.
• In 2008, Bashar al-Assad visited India, where he endorsed plans for agricultural cooperation and studies on Syria's phosphate resources.
• India offered to establish an IT Center of Excellence in Syria.
• Indian exports to Syria have included textiles, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, while imports have focused on raw materials such as rock phosphate and cotton.
• According to resources, exports to Syria from India stood at arevenue of more than $159 Million by the year 2020.

• For India, maintaining stable relations with Syria and other key players in the Middle East has also been crucial in countering Pakistan's narratives within these Muslim-majority nations.

• India's engagement with Syria has been a part of its broader strategy to enhance its presence and influence in the Middle East.
• In return for Syria's support on issues like Kashmir, India has provided significant development and humanitarian assistance.
• Most importantly, India has supported "Syria‟s legitimate right to regain the occupied Golan Heights".
• India sent humanitarian aid to Syria following a deadly earthquake in February 2023 as part of Operation Dost (friend).

• At the United Nations, India has also refused to support sanctions against Syria.
• Now as a new regime is set to take a seat in Syria, it would be worth noting if the 'give and take' continues for mutual benefit.

• The fall of Syria‟s Bashar-al-Assad has increased worries for Indian agencies who warn that Islamic State (IS)‟s presence in India may get a boost and reignite the Kashmir issue.
• The Islamic State may look for Indian youth for recruitment for more activities.
• ISIS may try to interfere in the Kashmir issue again with the fall of Assad.
• According to various reports and estimates, around 100-150 Indians are believed to have travelled to Syria and Iraq to join the terror organisation.
• Some notable cases of Indians joining IS in Syria include:
• Areeb Majeed: A 23-year-old engineering student from Mumbai who joined IS in 2014.
• Fahad Tanvir Sheikh: A 27-year-old from Thane, Maharashtra, who joined IS in 2014.
• Saheem Tanvir Farooqi: A 27-year-old from Thane, Maharashtra, who joined IS in 2014.

• India, for decades, has been investing in Syria's infrastructure and development, aiming to strengthen bilateral ties and leverage Syria's geostrategic location.
• India has two significant investments in Syria's oil sector and has extended a USD 240 million Line of Credit for a thermal project.
• In 2004, an agreement between ONGC and IPR International for oil and natural gas exploration, and another joint investment by ONGC and China‟s CNPC to acquire a 37% stake in a Canadian firm operating in Syria.
• The USD 240 million Line of Credit was for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant project.
• India has also supported capacity building for Syrian youth.
• Under India's 'Study in India' programme, 1,500 seats were offered to Syrian students for UG, Master and PhD programmes in four phases from 2017 to 2018.

• In trade terms, bilateral trade between the two nations was over USD 100 million from 2020 to 2023.
• Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL), an Indian State-owned company, was awarded a 485 million US dollars contract in 2008 to supply 400 megawatts (MW) to the Tishreen power plant near Damascus.
• The power supply project was partially funded by the Export-Import Bank of India, which provided a soft loan of 240 million US dollars and released the first payment of 100 million US dollars in 2010.
• Syria or an international financial institution was expected to cover the remaining 245 million US dollars.