{"id":85531,"date":"2026-09-25T17:36:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=85531"},"modified":"2026-09-25T17:37:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:07:01","slug":"global-south-decision-making-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/25-09-2026\/global-south-decision-making-2","title":{"rendered":"Monsoon Predictability in India"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/Geography; GS3\/Agriculture; Disaster Management; S&amp;T<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rapid advances in AI, high-performance computing and climate science are opening new possibilities for predicting India\u2019s monsoon, even as climate change makes extreme rainfall increasingly difficult to anticipate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>About Monsoon Predictability in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/24-09-2026\/india-drought-stress-monsoon-risks\"><strong>Indian Summer Monsoon<\/strong><\/a> is a highly complex climate system. Its behaviour is influenced by the <strong>land\u2013sea thermal contrast, sea-surface temperatures <\/strong>in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, <strong>Himalayan topography, atmospheric circulation, greenhouse gases and aerosols<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monsoon predictability also depends on the time horizon.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>3\u201310 day forecasts<\/strong> are crucial for farmers for sowing, irrigation and harvesting decisions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sub-seasonal forecasts<\/strong> help anticipate active and break phases of the monsoon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Decadal and long-term projections<\/strong> are needed for infrastructure such as reservoirs, drainage systems and irrigation networks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A major difficulty is the difference in <strong>scale between atmospheric models<\/strong> and <strong>actual rainfall processes.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Convective clouds<\/strong> responsible for much monsoon rainfall can be only a few kilometres across, whereas global climate models generally operate at much coarser spatial resolutions.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Processes such as <strong>cloud formation, turbulence and aerosol\u2013cloud interactions<\/strong> therefore have to be represented approximately.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Parameters Related to Monsoon Predictability<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Land\u2013Sea Thermal Contrast: <\/strong>The differential heating of the Indian landmass and surrounding oceans drives the seasonal monsoon circulation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Oceanic Conditions: <\/strong>Sea-surface temperatures in the <strong>Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean<\/strong>, including ENSO-related variability, influence monsoon circulation and rainfall.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Himalayan Topography: <\/strong>The Himalayas act as a major barrier to atmospheric circulation and play an important role in shaping the South Asian monsoon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Aerosols: <\/strong>Aerosols from industrial activity, biomass burning and other sources can alter radiation and cloud microphysics. Their net influence on monsoon rainfall remains an important area of scientific uncertainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Atmospheric Moisture and Convection: <\/strong>Rainfall depends strongly on moisture availability, atmospheric instability and the organisation of convective systems.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>These small-scale processes are particularly difficult to simulate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Need for Monsoon Predictability<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Improved prediction has direct consequences for <strong>food, water and disaster security<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>For farmers<\/strong>, reliable short-range forecasts can improve decisions regarding sowing, fertiliser application and irrigation.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>For governments<\/strong>, better predictions support reservoir management, flood preparedness and drought response.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long-term projections<\/strong> are equally important for urban drainage, bridges, reservoirs and other infrastructure constructed today may remain operational for several decades.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Their design therefore needs to account for the possibility of more intense rainfall under a warmer climate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Technologies and Measures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Numerical Weather Prediction: <\/strong>The <strong>India Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong> combines observations with numerical weather prediction systems and other forecasting techniques.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Satellite observations, weather radars, rain gauges and ocean observations improve the quality of initial atmospheric information.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI and Machine Learning: <\/strong>AI-based weather models are emerging as a promising complement to conventional numerical models.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They can learn atmospheric patterns from large historical datasets and, in some applications, generate forecasts much faster than traditional computational approaches.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Their potential applications include <strong>rainfall forecasting, heat-wave prediction and subseasonal monsoon forecasting<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, AI models learn primarily from historical data, <strong>creating difficulties<\/strong> when predicting climatic conditions that have no close historical analogue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>High-Performance Computing: <\/strong>India is expanding its computational capabilities through initiatives such as the <strong>IndiaAI Mission<\/strong> and high-performance computing infrastructure developed with institutions such as <strong>C-DAC<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The<strong> growing availability of GPUs<\/strong> is particularly relevant because the same hardware can support both AI models and newer climate-modelling approaches.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hybrid Models: <\/strong>The most promising long-term approach is likely to combine <strong>physics-based climate models with AI\/ML techniques<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI can help represent computationally difficult processes, while physical models provide the scientific framework required for projections beyond the historical climate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Related Issues and Concerns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Model Bias: <\/strong>Climate models have historically faced difficulties in accurately reproducing the spatial distribution of Indian monsoon rainfall, including biases over land and surrounding oceans.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Aerosol\u2013Cloud Uncertainty: <\/strong>The interaction between tiny aerosol particles, cloud droplets and rainfall involves processes occurring across vastly different spatial and temporal scales. These remain difficult to resolve directly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Extreme Events: <\/strong>The most severe heat waves and rainfall events are relatively rare in historical datasets. It limits the ability of purely data-driven AI systems to learn such events.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Future Climate Is Not the Past: <\/strong>A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, increasing the potential for intense precipitation.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Research indicates that extreme rainfall can intensify substantially under global warming.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, the <strong>exact location, magnitude and timing of future changes in Indian monsoon rainfall remain uncertain<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Onset and Active\u2013Break Cycles: <\/strong>Considerable uncertainty persists regarding future changes in monsoon onset, withdrawal and the frequency or duration of active and break phases.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Forward: For Long-Term Monsoon Predictability<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India needs a <strong>\u2018predict better and build flexibly\u2019<\/strong> approach.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strengthen observations<\/strong> through more rain gauges, <strong>Doppler weather radars<\/strong>, satellites and ocean buoys.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Integrate <\/strong>IMD, universities, research institutions and private-sector innovators.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Develop <strong>high-resolution regional climate models<\/strong> capable of better representing India&#8217;s diverse geography.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Combine <strong>AI with physics-based models<\/strong> rather than treating them as competing alternatives.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Improve understanding of <strong>aerosol\u2013cloud\u2013precipitation interactions<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Produce <strong>district-level climate-risk information<\/strong> for planners and engineers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strengthen the last-mile delivery of forecasts through farmer advisories, mobile applications and early-warning systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adopt <strong>adaptive infrastructure planning<\/strong> so that drainage, reservoirs and flood-management systems can be upgraded as scientific projections improve.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India&#8217;s monsoon challenge is not simply about predicting whether it will rain. It is about knowing <strong>when, where and how intensely it may rain, and how changes as the climate warms<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI and high-performance computing<\/strong> can substantially improve short- and medium-range forecasting, but they cannot eliminate the uncertainties of long-term climate change.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Physics-based models, better observations and AI will therefore need to work together.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>For the farmer<\/strong>, the priority is a more useful forecast for the coming days. <strong>For the engineer,<\/strong> the priority is infrastructure that remains safe despite an uncertain future.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>India&#8217;s climate resilience will depend on addressing both needs simultaneously.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q] <\/strong>Discuss the major factors governing monsoon predictability in India. Examine the limitations of existing forecasting systems and suggest measures to improve short-term as well as long-term monsoon prediction.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/opinion\/will-monsoons-become-impossible-to-predict-101790276037000.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Source: HT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/edt25-09-26.pdf\">Download PDF<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Published on:<\/strong> 25 September, 2026<\/p>\n<p>Rapid advances in AI, high-performance computing and climate science are opening new possibilities for predicting India\u2019s monsoon, even as climate change makes extreme rainfall increasingly difficult to anticipate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85531"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85534,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85531\/revisions\/85534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}