{"id":85475,"date":"2026-09-24T18:03:53","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:33:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=85475"},"modified":"2026-09-24T18:04:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:34:59","slug":"india-drought-stress-monsoon-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/24-09-2026\/india-drought-stress-monsoon-risks","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s Emerging Drought Stress: Monsoon Variability and Agricultural Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/ Geography, GS3\/Environment; Disaster Management<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As the southwest monsoon begins withdrawing, drought conditions have spread across over half of India, with persistent soil-moisture stress raising concerns for <strong>kharif yields, rabi sowing and water security<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>About Drought in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Drought is a <strong>prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall leading to water shortage<\/strong>, with impacts varying across meteorological, agricultural and hydrological systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In India, drought assessment increasingly combines rainfall, <strong>soil moisture, vegetation health, reservoir storage and groundwater conditions<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India is particularly vulnerable because <strong>55\u201360% of its net sown area is rainfed<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)<\/strong> and the Ministry of Agriculture emphasise drought monitoring, early warning, contingency crop planning and efficient water management.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>India\u2019s Emerging Drought Stress<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Monsoon Variability: <\/strong>The key concern is not merely seasonal rainfall deficiency but its <strong>uneven temporal and spatial distribution<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Repeated alternation between wet and dry spells has produced prolonged periods of soil drying.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thus, short rainfall episodes have not necessarily translated into drought recovery where antecedent soil-moisture deficits remain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Extent and Spread of Drought: <\/strong>According to the <strong>IIT Gandhinagar India Drought Monitor<\/strong>, around <strong>52.5% of India\u2019s area<\/strong> was under dry or drought conditions by September 16, up from <strong>38.9% about a month earlier<\/strong>. Regional stress was particularly high in:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Western India:<\/strong> 79% of the area under dry\/drought conditions;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Southern India:<\/strong> 67%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Northeast:<\/strong> 62%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Northwest:<\/strong> 47%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>East:<\/strong> 42%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>North:<\/strong> 41%;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Central India:<\/strong> 40%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rainfall Deficit and Spatial Variability: <\/strong>Between June 1 and September 22, 2026, India received <strong>706.9 mm rainfall against a normal 832.4 mm, a 15% deficit<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>About <strong>41% of the country experienced deficient seasonal rainfall<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional deficits<\/strong> included <strong>Rayalaseema <\/strong>(43%), Coastal Andhra Pradesh (37%), Marathwada (36%), Karnataka interiors (32% each) and Kerala (28%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e9dbd1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e9dbd1;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"766\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-186.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"not-transparent wp-image-85476\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-186.png 766w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-186-300x159.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 766px) 100vw, 766px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>El Ni\u00f1o and Monsoon Uncertainty: <\/strong>A strengthening <strong>El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> adds uncertainty to rainfall and temperature patterns.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Its interaction with other ocean-atmosphere phenomena can influence monsoon variability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recent research highlights the role of ENSO in modifying drought characteristics and agricultural productivity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Implications for Agriculture &amp; Overall Economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The stress is already visible in kharif sowing.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>By September 11, kharif acreage stood at <strong>1,096.49 lakh hectares<\/strong>, compared with <strong>1,112.54 lakh hectares<\/strong> a year earlier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paddy acreage declined by nearly <strong>17 lakh hectares<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Persistent soil-moisture deficits<\/strong> can reduce <strong>crop yields, livestock productivity and farm incomes<\/strong>, while raising demand for irrigation and government support.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lower reservoir and groundwater recharge may constrain <strong>rabi sowing<\/strong>, affecting food prices, rural employment and agricultural GDP.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The vulnerability is significant because the Agriculture Ministry and ICAR had identified <strong>315 districts<\/strong> as potentially vulnerable to El Ni\u00f1o-related farm distress, including <strong>111 high-priority districts<\/strong> with irrigation coverage below 25%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Forward<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Strengthen <strong>district-level drought early-warning systems<\/strong> integrating rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater and satellite data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Promote <strong>millets, pulses and drought-tolerant crop varieties<\/strong> through climate-resilient agriculture.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expand <strong>micro-irrigation, watershed development and rainwater harvesting<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adopt <strong>contingency crop planning<\/strong> based on real-time monsoon conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Improve reservoir operation and groundwater recharge for <strong>rabi resilience<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strengthen crop insurance, weather advisories and targeted livelihood support in vulnerable districts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shift from rainfall-deficit assessment alone towards <strong>impact-based drought monitoring<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>About Indian Summer Monsoon<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is a <strong>seasonal reversal of winds<\/strong> that brings the bulk of India\u2019s annual rainfall. It is central to agriculture, water resources and the economy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Southwest Monsoon:<\/strong> Normally begins over <strong>Kerala around 1 June<\/strong> and advances northwards, covering most of India by July. It generally accounts for about <strong>75% of India\u2019s annual rainfall<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Two Branches:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Arabian Sea Branch<\/strong>: It brings rainfall to the west coast and northern\/northwestern India.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bay of Bengal Branch<\/strong>: It moves towards Northeast India and then westward along the Himalayan foothills and the Ganga plains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Monsoon Variability:<\/strong> Rainfall is highly uneven spatially and temporally, with <strong>active and break phases<\/strong>. Factors such as <strong>El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Himalayan\u2013Tibetan conditions and intra-seasonal atmospheric circulation<\/strong> influence its performance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Withdrawal:<\/strong> The southwest monsoon normally begins withdrawing from <strong>northwestern India in September<\/strong>, progressing southwards and generally retreating from the country by October.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>Northeast Monsoon<\/strong> subsequently becomes important, particularly for <strong>Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeastern peninsular India<\/strong>, mainly during October\u2013December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.downtoearth.org.in\/agriculture\/more-than-half-of-india-under-dry-or-drought-conditions-as-monsoon-withdrawal-begins\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Source: DTE<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\n<strong> <\/p>\n<p>Context<\/p>\n<p> <\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">\n<p>As the southwest monsoon begins withdrawing, drought conditions have spread across over half of India, with persistent soil-moisture stress raising concerns for kharif yields, rabi sowing and water security.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong> <\/p>\n<p>About Drought in India<\/p>\n<p><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">\n<p>Drought is a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall leading to water shortage, with impacts varying across meteorological, agricultural and hydrological systems.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">\n<p>In India, drought assessment increasingly combines rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation health, reservoir storage and groundwater conditions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p><a href=\" https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/24-09-2026\/india-drought-stress-monsoon-risks\"   class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85475"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85475\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85478,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85475\/revisions\/85478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}