{"id":83760,"date":"2026-09-03T18:33:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T13:03:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=83760"},"modified":"2026-09-03T18:34:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T13:04:04","slug":"global-warming-overshoot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/03-09-2026\/global-warming-overshoot","title":{"rendered":"United Nations Charts Course to Manage Global Warming-Limit Breach"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS3\/Environment and Ecology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released the Limiting Overshoot report, outlining an \u201covershoot, peak and decline\u201d pathway to manage the likely temporary breach of the 1.5\u00b0C global warming limit set by the Paris Agreement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What is the \u201cOvershoot, Peak and Decline\u201d pathway?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Overshoot: <\/strong>Global average temperature temporarily rises above 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Peak: <\/strong>The increase in temperature should be kept as low as possible and the duration above 1.5\u00b0C should be minimised.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Decline:<\/strong> Through deep emission reductions and large-scale carbon dioxide removal, global temperatures should subsequently be brought back below 1.5\u00b0C by the end of the century.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UNEP describes this as not an acceptable or preferred pathway but the \u201cbest remaining option\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Is Overshooting 1.5\u00b0C Becoming Likely?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>UNEP estimates that global warming could cross <strong>1.5\u00b0C<\/strong> within the next few years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even if all countries fully implement their <strong>Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero commitments,<\/strong> peak warming could reach around <strong>1.8\u00b0C.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current policies could result in approximately 2.6\u00b0C warming by 2100, with an estimated range of 1.9\u00b0C\u20133.6\u00b0C.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rapid depletion of the remaining global carbon budget has reduced the possibility of avoiding a temporary breach.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>International Recognition of the Overshoot Challenge<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The diplomatic grounds for that framing were laid at the<strong> 30th UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, held in 2025 in Brazil\u2019s Bel\u00e9m<\/strong>, where the consensus \u201c<strong>Global Mutir\u00e3o\u201d decision<\/strong> became the first COP text to concede that a temporary overshoot of the 1.5\u00b0C threshold was increasingly likely.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The countries committed to:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Limiting the magnitude and duration of overshoot.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Accelerating deep and sustained emission reductions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Closing existing adaptation gaps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Scaling up nature-based carbon removals, including reforestation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Does the Duration of Overshoot Matter?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The UNEP report suggested that<strong> time spent above 1.5\u00b0C carries compounding costs<\/strong> such as faster sea-level rise, coral reef collapse, glacier loss exceeding a quarter of global mass by 2100, and <strong>declines of up to 14%<\/strong> in global food production by <strong>2050.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Every additional five years of high emissions could add roughly 0.1\u00b0C to peak warming.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Without effective adaptation, there is increased risk of <strong>irreversible tipping points <\/strong>in the <strong>West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Carbon dioxide removal <strong>cannot substitute for emission reductions<\/strong>; it is required in addition to deep emission cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Potential approaches include:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Afforestation and reforestation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ecosystem and soil restoration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Other technological and engineered carbon removal methods.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The UNEP stresses that <strong>temperatures can credibly be brought back towards 1.5\u00b0C <\/strong>only if peak warming remains well below <strong>2\u00b0C.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Methane targets: <\/strong>The report placed significant stress on methane, which currently contributes about <strong>0.5\u00b0C <\/strong>of warming. Cutting it is described as the most effective way to slow warming in the near term.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Over 155 countries have joined the<strong> Global Methane Pledge<\/strong> to cut anthropogenic methane at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Ahead<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The UNEP pathway represents a shift from a strategy focused solely on avoiding 1.5\u00b0C towards managing a likely temporary breach while preventing a much more dangerous temperature trajectory.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The longer and higher the world remains above 1.5\u00b0C, the greater the risk of irreversible ecological and economic losses and the more difficult it becomes to restore temperatures.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Therefore, the most effective strategy remains an <strong>\u201covershoot of ambition\u201d<\/strong>\u2014rapid emission reductions combined with methane mitigation, adaptation and carefully scaled carbon removal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebecf0\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are <strong>country-specific climate action plans<\/strong> submitted under the <strong>Paris Agreement.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They outline targets for <strong>reducing greenhouse gas emissions<\/strong> and adapting to climate change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NDCs are <strong>revised periodically<\/strong> to enhance ambition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Guiding Principles of India\u2019s NDC:<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India\u2019s NDC is based on the principle of <strong>Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). <\/strong>The approach emphasises equity and climate justice.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India\u2019s NDC <strong>balances developmental needs, energy security, and climate commitments.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Targets in NDC 3.0 (2031-2035)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Emissions Intensity Reduction: <\/strong>India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity (CO\u2082 per unit of GDP) of its GDP by <strong>47%<\/strong> by 2035 from 2005 levels.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India has already reduced its emissions intensity by about 36% between 2005 and 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Expansion of Non-Fossil Fuel Capacity:<\/strong> India has committed to achieving<strong> 60%<\/strong> of its installed electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2035.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India has already achieved more than <strong>52%<\/strong> non-fossil fuel capacity by 2026, ahead of its earlier target.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Creation of Carbon Sink: <\/strong>India has committed to creating a carbon sink of <strong>3.5 to 4 billion tonnes<\/strong> of CO\u2082 equivalent through forest and tree cover by 2035.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/energy-and-environment\/global-warming-will-exceed-limit-un-says-in-a-report-that-maps-path-to-get-back-below-danger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>TH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong> Context <\/strong><\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released the Limiting Overshoot report, outlining an \u201covershoot, peak and decline\u201d pathway to manage the likely temporary breach of the 1.5\u00b0C global warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. <\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><strong> What is the \u201cOvershoot, Peak and Decline\u201d pathway? <\/strong><\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> Overshoot: Global average temperature temporarily rises above 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. <\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> Peak: The increase in temperature should be kept as low as possible and the duration above 1.5\u00b0C should be minimised. <\/li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/03-09-2026\/global-warming-overshoot\" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83760","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83760"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83760\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83762,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83760\/revisions\/83762"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83760"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83760"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83760"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}