{"id":77828,"date":"2026-06-26T17:22:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T11:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=77828"},"modified":"2026-06-26T17:26:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T11:56:01","slug":"poor-monsoon-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/26-06-2026\/poor-monsoon-india","title":{"rendered":"Poor Monsoon in India: Causes, Implications and Preparedness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/Geography; GS3\/Environment; Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recently, IMD forecasts <strong>below-normal precipitation<\/strong><em> (about 43% below normal)<\/em> that have intensified due to delayed rainfall and emerging<strong> <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/05-06-2026\/el-nino-india-challenge\"><strong>El Ni\u00f1o conditions<\/strong><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"dfd3d2\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"651\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-217-651x1024.png\" alt=\"poor monsoon in india\" class=\"not-transparent wp-image-77829\" style=\"--dominant-color: #dfd3d2; aspect-ratio:0.6352582509128293;width:293px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-217-651x1024.png 651w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-217-191x300.png 191w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-217-768x1209.png 768w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-217-976x1536.png 976w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-217.png 1301w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 651px) 100vw, 651px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>About Indian Monsoon<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is the <strong>seasonal reversal of winds<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is primarily caused due to the difference between land an<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f0edee\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"389\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-218.png\" alt=\"indian monsoon\" class=\"not-transparent wp-image-77830\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f0edee; width:345px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-218.png 389w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-218-300x206.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 389px) 100vw, 389px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There are two types of monsoons in India:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Southwest Monsoon:<\/strong> It accounts for about 75% of total precipitation in India.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Northeast or Retreating Monsoon:<\/strong> It occurs in the southeastern part of India including Tamil Nadu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is very important for the farming, water supply, and economy of the country.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long Period Average (LPA) <\/strong>serves as the standard parameter for IMD to evaluate monsoon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"2\"><strong>Classification of Monsoon Performance (IMD)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Category<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Rainfall (% of Long Period Average &#8211; LPA)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Normal Monsoon<\/td><td>96\u2013104% of LPA<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Below Normal \/ Weak Monsoon<\/td><td>&lt; 90% of LPA<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deficient Monsoon<\/td><td>&lt; 90% with significant regional deficits<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surplus Monsoon<\/td><td>&gt; 110% of LPA<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Reasons Behind the Weak Monsoon<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Limited Impact of El Ni\u00f1o Before Early June:<\/strong> El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to IMD, the effect of <strong>El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> on the Indian monsoon shows a <strong>lag of roughly one month.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o reduces the strength of <strong>Walker Circulation.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It inhibits moisture transport and convection over the Indian subcontinent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, the deficit rainfall in June could not have been caused mainly by El Ni\u00f1o.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): <\/strong>MJO is an active system of cloudiness, rainfall and wind movement along the equator.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The favorable phase of MJO was not present over India through most of June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While over India, it suppressed convection and rainfall.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It reduced monsoon activity over much of the country.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Weak Monsoon Circulation System:<\/strong> It is because of:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Weak cross-equatorial flow from the Indian Ocean.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ineffective moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weak progression of monsoon over northern and western India.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>No Significant Low-Pressure Areas:<\/strong> Monsoon rains over India are strongly influenced by:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Low-pressure areas and depressions developing over the Bay of Bengal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>During June, such systems were either missing or weak, producing poor rainfall distribution.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Increased Climate Variability:<\/strong> Climate change has increased intraseasonal climate variability; occurrence of droughts and excessive rainfall; and uneven distribution of rainfall across regions.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Therefore, even the years having near-normal total rainfall experience localized shortages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Implications of a Weak Monsoon Over India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Agricultural Stress: <\/strong>Agriculture remains highly dependent on monsoon rainfall despite expansion of irrigation.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A weak monsoon may lead to reduced kharif sowing; lower crop yields, especially rice, pulses and oilseeds; and increased input costs for farmers due to dependence on irrigation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Threat to Food Security and Inflation: <\/strong>Lower agricultural output can push food prices upward; increase inflationary pressures; and affect nutritional security, particularly among vulnerable populations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Water Shortage:<\/strong> Poor rains reduce the groundwater level; fill the reservoirs; and decrease the availability of drinking water.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Past experience shows that dry years require water to be transported to drought-prone areas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Economic Impact on Rural Areas:<\/strong> Weak monsoon affects farm income; demand from rural sector; and job prospects in agriculture-based regions.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It would hamper the economic growth of the country.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hydropower Production:<\/strong> Low reservoir water level affects hydropower production; and availability of water for irrigation and consumption in cities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Environmental Impacts: <\/strong>Lack of rain increases the risk of forest fires; soil erosion; and pressure on wetlands and waterways.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>India\u2019s Preparedness For Weak Monsoon<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/13-05-2026\/imd-block-level-monsoon\"><strong>Weather Forecasting By IMD:<\/strong><\/a><strong> <\/strong>IMD provides <strong>extended-range and district-level forecasts<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Early warnings enable governments and farmers to plan crop choices and irrigation schedules.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Assessing Districts Vulnerability: <\/strong>Around 315 districts have been identified as potentially affected by weak monsoon conditions.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>111 districts (high priority) have irrigation coverage below 25%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>76 districts (medium-priority) have irrigation coverage between 25% to 50%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>128 districts (low priority) have relatively better irrigation facilities through dams and other sources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Contingency Crop Planning: <\/strong>The <strong>ICAR<\/strong> prepares <strong>district-specific contingency plans<\/strong> involving drought-tolerant crop varieties; alternate cropping systems; and short-duration seed varieties.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Centre and state governments are preparing <strong>region-specific strategies<\/strong> for vulnerable farm areas as seen in the recent contingency planning exercises.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Water Conservation: MGNREGS<\/strong> focuses on farm ponds, check dams, rainwater harvesting structures, and watershed development. These initiatives enhance local water security.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Expansion of Irrigation Infrastructure: <\/strong>Schemes such as <strong>Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY)<\/strong> aim to improve irrigation efficiency through micro-irrigation; \u2018Per Drop More Crop\u2019 initiatives; and command area development.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diversification of Energy Sources: <\/strong>Rapid expansion of solar power, wind energy, and other renewables has reduced dependence on hydropower during drought years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Crop Insurance: <\/strong>The <strong>Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)<\/strong> provides risk coverage against weather-induced crop losses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Forward<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strengthen climate-resilient agriculture<\/strong> by using drought-resistant seeds and diversified farming.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Increase micro-irrigation<\/strong> and water conservation to make less use of rains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Build up better <strong>watersheds <\/strong>and management of groundwaters locally, and advocate river basin and reservoir management.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Improve climate forecasting and dissemination systems<\/strong> for timely decision-making.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Incorporate climate change adaptation into rural development policies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Encourage community-led water conservation and sustainable agricultural practices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India&#8217;s experience underscores that a weak monsoon is no longer merely a meteorological concern but a multidimensional developmental challenge.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While improved forecasting, water conservation measures and renewable energy expansion have enhanced resilience, increasing climate variability necessitates sustained adaptation and long-term preparedness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q] <\/strong>Examine the causes behind poor monsoons in India. Discuss their implications and evaluate India&#8217;s preparedness to deal with weak monsoon conditions.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/explained-climate\/why-india-may-be-better-prepared-this-time-to-withstand-a-poor-monsoon-10755920\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source: IE<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Published on:<\/strong> 26 June, 2026<\/p>\n<p>Recently, IMD forecasts below-normal precipitation (about 43% below normal) that have intensified due to delayed rainfall and emerging El Ni\u00f1o conditions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":77836,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/poor-monsoon.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77828"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77828\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77835,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77828\/revisions\/77835"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}