{"id":77240,"date":"2026-06-17T18:15:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T12:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=77240"},"modified":"2026-06-17T18:16:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T12:46:44","slug":"ai-weather-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/17-06-2026\/ai-weather-forecasting","title":{"rendered":"AI Falls Short on Extreme Weather Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/ Geography, GS3\/ Science and Technology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A recent study found that while Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based weather forecasting models have achieved remarkable accuracy and speed, they continue to underperform in predicting record-breaking extreme weather events.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Traditional Model of Weather Prediction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traditional weather forecasting uses <strong>numerical weather prediction (NWP) <\/strong>models.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The model simulates atmospheric processes using equations of <strong>fluid dynamics and thermodynamics.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They simulate <strong>atmospheric circulation, <\/strong>heat transfer, moisture movement, cloud formation, precipitation processes, and <strong>ocean-atmosphere interactions.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Weather forecasting in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India, at present, depends on <strong>satellite data and computer models <\/strong>for weather prediction. The <strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong> uses the <strong>INSAT<\/strong> series of satellites and supercomputers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In India three satellites, <strong>INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS <\/strong>are used mainly for meteorological observations.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasters use satellite data around <strong>cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapor content<\/strong> that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Prediction of Weather with AI Models<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Unlike traditional weather models that rely on the laws of physics, AI-based models begin with data.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These models use <strong>machine learning algorithms<\/strong> to identify patterns and learn <strong>relationships between input variables<\/strong>\u2014such as temperature, humidity, wind speed\u2014and resulting weather events like cyclones or heavy rainfall.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The India Meteorological Department has established a dedicated functional group on the <strong>\u201cApplication of AI\/ML in Weather and Climate.\u201d\u00a0<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Currently, AI models being used experimentally include;<strong> Pangu-Weather, GraphCast and FourCastNet.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>IMD has also employed <strong>AI-based Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT)<\/strong> for estimating cyclone intensity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Advantages of AI Models in Weather Forecasting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ability to Use Big Data: <\/strong>AI models can process massive datasets from satellites, radars, weather stations, and even social media, allowing them to detect subtle signals and trends.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Handling of Nonlinear Systems: <\/strong>AI models have the potential to uncover hidden patterns and nonlinear cause-effect relationships among Earth system variables that physics-based models may overlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Adaptability to Local Conditions:<\/strong> AI allows for region-specific models that account for local geographical, topographical, and climatic factors, improving forecast relevance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Real-time Forecasting: <\/strong>AI is capable of rapid &#8220;nowcasting&#8221; \u2014 forecasting weather within the next few hours \u2014 which is crucial for disaster preparedness and urban planning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Do AI Models Struggle with Extreme Events?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Dependence on Historical Data:<\/strong> AI models are trained using historical weather records and they identify <strong>statistical patterns and relationships<\/strong> within past observations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The Extrapolation Problem:<\/strong> AI models excel at predicting events that fall within the range of previously observed weather conditions (interpolation).\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They <strong>struggle to forecast unprecedented or record-breaking events<\/strong> that lie outside their training data (extrapolation).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As a result, extreme heatwaves, cold waves, or wind storms are often underestimated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Lack of Physical Understanding: <\/strong>AI models learn correlations between variables rather than the underlying physical laws governing the atmosphere. This limits their ability to anticipate novel weather scenarios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Climate Change:<\/strong> AI models trained on today\u2019s climate data may become less effective in a warmer future, as the atmospheric system continues to evolve due to climate change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Black Box Nature of AI Models:<\/strong> AI systems, particularly deep learning models, operate as \u201cblack boxes\u201d, meaning their decision-making processes are opaque.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This hinders trust and interpretability, especially among non-experts and operational meteorologists.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Initiatives taken to improve the efficiency<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mission Mausam:<\/strong> It was launched to upgrade the capabilities of India\u2019s weather department in forecasting, modelling, and dissemination. The objectives of the mission are;\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Develop Cutting Edge Weather Surveillance Technologies &amp; Systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Implement Next-generation radars, and satellites with advanced instrument payloads<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Develop improved earth system models, and data-driven methods (use of AI\/ML).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The &#8216;National Monsoon Mission&#8217; <\/strong>was set out in <strong>2012<\/strong> to move the nation over to a system that relies more on <strong>real-time, on-the-ground data gathering.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Doppler radars:<\/strong> The IMD is also increasingly using Doppler radars to improve efficiency in predictions. The number of Doppler radars has increased from <strong>15 in 2013 to 50 in 2026.\u00a0<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Doppler radars are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare have initiated the <strong>weather information network and data system (WINDS) <\/strong>under which<strong> <\/strong>more than <strong>200,000 ground stations <\/strong>will be installed,<strong> <\/strong>to generate long-term, hyper-local weather data.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>IMD is an agency of the <strong>Ministry of Earth Sciences.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is also one of the six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres of the <strong>World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/th\"><strong>TH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong> Context <\/strong><\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> A recent study found that while Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based weather forecasting models have achieved remarkable accuracy and speed, they continue to underperform in predicting record-breaking extreme weather events. <\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><strong> Traditional Model of Weather Prediction <\/strong><\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> Traditional weather forecasting uses numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.\u00a0 <\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> The model simulates atmospheric processes using equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics.\u00a0 <\/li>\n<p><a href=\" https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/17-06-2026\/ai-weather-forecasting \" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77240"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77245,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77240\/revisions\/77245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}