{"id":75895,"date":"2026-06-05T17:34:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T12:04:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=75895"},"modified":"2026-06-05T17:50:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T12:20:29","slug":"el-nino-india-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/05-06-2026\/el-nino-india-challenge","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o: Why India Faces a Development Challenge?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS3\/Environment; Climate Change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a high probability of El Ni\u00f1o in 2026, while IMD projects a below-normal monsoon, raising concerns over agriculture, inflation and livelihoods.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>About El Ni\u00f1o and Its 2026 Forecast<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o is a climate phenomenon characterised by the <strong>abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures<\/strong> in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is<strong> one phase of the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<\/strong> cycle and significantly influences global weather patterns, including India&#8217;s monsoon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon involving periodic changes in <strong>sea surface temperatures<\/strong> and <strong>atmospheric pressure<\/strong> over the tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is one of the most important drivers of global weather and climate variability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Components of ENSO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>El Ni\u00f1o (Warm Phase): <\/strong>It is characterised by <strong>warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures<\/strong> in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It weakens the trade winds.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is often associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India, droughts in parts of Asia and Australia, and increased global temperatures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"c3d9de\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1015\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-28.png\" alt=\"El ni\u00f1o (warm phase)\" class=\"not-transparent wp-image-75899\" style=\"--dominant-color: #c3d9de; aspect-ratio:3.3833379463050095;width:619px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-28.png 1015w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-28-300x89.png 300w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-28-768x227.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1015px) 100vw, 1015px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>La Ni\u00f1a (Cool Phase): <\/strong>It is characterised by <strong>cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures<\/strong> in the same region.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It strengthens the trade winds, and is often associated with above-normal monsoon rainfall in India, increased flooding in some regions, and slightly cooler global temperatures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"aed4e1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"618\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-29.png\" alt=\"La ni\u00f1a (cool phase)\" class=\"not-transparent wp-image-75900\" style=\"--dominant-color: #aed4e1; width:572px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-29.png 618w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-29-300x76.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Southern Oscillation: <\/strong>It refers to the periodic fluctuation in atmospheric pressure between <strong>Tahiti (Eastern Pacific), and Darwin, Australia (Western Pacific).<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is measured through the <strong>Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Changes in pressure influence trade winds and ocean temperatures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ENSO Mechanism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Under normal conditions,<\/strong> trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific, warm water accumulates near Indonesia and Australia, and cooler, nutrient-rich water rises along the South American coast (upwelling).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>During El Ni\u00f1o, <\/strong>trade winds weaken, warm water shifts eastward, upwelling decreases, and rainfall patterns change globally.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>During La Ni\u00f1a,<\/strong> trade winds strengthen, more warm water accumulates in the western Pacific, upwelling intensifies, and opposite climatic impacts occur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Impact of El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Heat Economy (Productivity Losses and Informal Workers): <\/strong>India\u2019s large informal workforce, comprising construction workers, street vendors, delivery personnel and agricultural labourers remains highly vulnerable to extreme heat.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Higher temperatures lead to reduced working hours due to heat exposure, lower labour productivity, increased health risks and heat-related illnesses, and income insecurity for daily wage earners.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Agricultural Stress and Rural Distress: <\/strong>Agriculture remains the most climate-sensitive sector of the Indian economy.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>Southwest Monsoon provides nearly 70% of the rainfall required for crops and replenishes reservoirs and aquifers.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A weaker monsoon can result in delayed or reduced sowing, lower crop yields, increased irrigation costs, greater dependence on groundwater extraction, and higher risks for small and marginal farmers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Food Inflation and Macroeconomic Risks: <\/strong>Climate shocks often become visible first through rising food prices.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by MOSPI in 2026<\/strong> showed food inflation at <strong>4.2% in April 2026<\/strong>. A deficient monsoon could intensify price pressures on pulses, vegetables, cereals, and edible oils.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Water Security Challenges: <\/strong>Reduced rainfall directly affects reservoir storage levels, groundwater recharge, drinking water availability, and hydropower generation.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A weak monsoon can worsen these stresses, particularly in drought-prone regions of peninsular and western India.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Urban Vulnerability and Rising Inequality: <\/strong>Indian cities are increasingly becoming <strong>urban heat islands<\/strong> due to rapid concretisation, shrinking green cover, and loss of water bodies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Public Health Concerns: <\/strong>El Ni\u00f1o-induced heatwaves and water stress can contribute to heat strokes and dehydration, spread of vector-borne diseases, reduced nutritional security due to food inflation, and greater health expenditure among vulnerable households.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Public health systems may face increased pressure, especially in densely populated urban areas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Forward: Building Climate Resilience<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strengthen Heat Action Plans: <\/strong>Expand city-level heat action plans; establish cooling shelters and early warning systems; and ensure occupational safety standards for outdoor workers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Climate-Resilient Agriculture: <\/strong>Promote drought-resistant crop varieties; expand micro-irrigation and precision farming; and strengthen crop insurance and weather-based advisories.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Water Resource Management: <\/strong>Improve rainwater harvesting; encourage watershed development; and enhance groundwater governance and recharge initiatives.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Urban Climate Resilience: <\/strong>Increase urban green spaces; protect wetlands and water bodies; and promote heat-resilient urban planning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Social Protection for Vulnerable Groups: <\/strong>Strengthen MGNREGA and livelihood support programmes, expand social security for informal workers, and improve access to affordable cooling and healthcare.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q] <\/strong>Examine the socio-economic implications of El Ni\u00f1o on India&#8217;s agriculture, labour market, food security, and urban resilience.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/op-ed\/when-el-nino-becomes-an-economic-crisis\/article71060937.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source: TH<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Daily-Editorial-Analysis-05-06-2026.pdf\"><strong>Download PDF<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Published on:<\/strong> 05 June, 2026<\/p>\n<p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a high probability of El Ni\u00f1o in 2026, while IMD projects a below-normal monsoon, raising concerns over agriculture, inflation and livelihoods.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":75903,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/06\/El-Nino-Why-India-Faces-a-Development-Challenge.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75895"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75905,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75895\/revisions\/75905"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}