{"id":73579,"date":"2026-05-13T18:27:20","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T12:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=73579"},"modified":"2026-05-13T18:28:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T12:58:10","slug":"imd-block-level-monsoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/13-05-2026\/imd-block-level-monsoon","title":{"rendered":"IMD Launches Block-Level Monsoon Forecast System"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>GS1\/Geography; GS3\/ Disaster Management<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The India Meteorological Department has launched a new forecasting system capable of providing <strong>block-level forecasts of the southwest monsoon <\/strong>across <strong>15 States and one Union Territory.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Weather forecasting in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India, at present, depends on <strong>satellite data and computer models <\/strong>for weather prediction. The <strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong> uses the <strong>INSAT<\/strong> series of satellites and supercomputers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In India three satellites, <strong>INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS <\/strong>are used mainly for meteorological observations.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasters use satellite data around <strong>cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapor content<\/strong> that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>About the New Forecast System<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The new forecasting system has been developed by the<strong> Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology<\/strong> under the <strong>Ministry of Earth Sciences.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The system combines <strong>artificial intelligence-based analysis, historical meteorological records, and global weather models<\/strong> to improve the accuracy of monsoon forecasts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The forecasting system currently covers <strong>3,196 blocks across 15 States<\/strong> and one Union Territory.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The system has mainly been designed for regions falling within the <strong>monsoon core zone,<\/strong> which are highly dependent on rainfall.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The system provides probabilistic forecasts for the<strong> next four weeks<\/strong> and tracks the movement of the monsoon from its onset over <strong>Kerala <\/strong>to different parts of the country.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Significance of the Initiative<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strengthening Agricultural Resilience: <\/strong>The initiative can reduce agricultural vulnerability by enabling farmers to make timely and informed decisions regarding crop planning and sowing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Promoting Precision Agriculture: <\/strong>The use of AI-based weather forecasting supports the growth of precision agriculture and data-driven farming practices in India.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Improving Disaster Preparedness: <\/strong>Accurate local weather forecasts can improve preparedness against floods, droughts, and extreme weather events.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Advancing India\u2019s Meteorological Capabilities: <\/strong>The initiative reflects India\u2019s growing capabilities in climate science, weather modelling, and AI-enabled forecasting systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Spatial Variability of the Monsoon: <\/strong>The Indian monsoon displays considerable spatial variation even within the same district.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In several cases, the monsoon may officially arrive in a district, while many villages and blocks within that district may continue to experience dry conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Government Initiatives to Improve Weather Forecasting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mission Mausam:<\/strong> It was launched to upgrade the capabilities of India\u2019s weather department in forecasting, modelling, and dissemination. The objectives of the mission are;\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Develop Cutting Edge Weather Surveillance Technologies &amp; Systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Implement Next-generation radars, and satellites with advanced instrument payloads<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Develop improved earth system models, and data-driven methods (use of AI\/ML).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The &#8216;National Monsoon Mission&#8217; <\/strong>was set out in <strong>2012<\/strong> to move the nation over to a system that relies more on <strong>real-time, on-the-ground data gathering.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The IMD is also increasingly using <strong>Doppler radars<\/strong> to improve efficiency in predictions. The number of Doppler radars has increased from <strong>15 in 2013 to 50 in 2026.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Doppler radars are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare have initiated the <strong>weather information network and data system (WINDS) <\/strong>under which<strong> <\/strong>more than <strong>200,000 ground stations <\/strong>will be installed,<strong> <\/strong>to generate long-term, hyper-local weather data.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Challenges Associated with the Forecast System<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Limited Weather Infrastructure:<\/strong> Many regions in India still lack sufficient weather monitoring stations and observational infrastructure, which limits the accuracy of hyper-local forecasting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Threat of El Ni\u00f1o Conditions: <\/strong>The forecasting system may face a major challenge this year because of the possible development of El Ni\u00f1o conditions during the later phase of the monsoon season.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o conditions are generally associated with <strong>weaker southwest monsoon<\/strong> rainfall in India.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Complexity of Monsoon Dynamics: <\/strong>The Indian monsoon is influenced by multiple factors such as <strong>ocean-atmosphere interactions, pressure systems, temperature variations, and regional topography.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Forecasting rainfall at micro scales therefore remains scientifically challenging.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Ahead<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The system should be expanded<\/strong> to all States and Union Territories to improve nationwide weather forecasting capacity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India needs greater investment in <strong>automatic weather stations, Doppler radars, and observational infrastructure<\/strong> to improve forecasting accuracy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weather forecasts should be <strong>integrated with mobile-based agricultural advisory services <\/strong>to improve last-mile delivery of information to farmers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Effective coordination<\/strong> between the IMD, State governments, agricultural institutions, and local administrations will be essential for the successful implementation of the forecasting system.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>IMD is an agency of the <strong>Ministry of Earth Sciences.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is also one of the six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres of the <strong>World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/energy-and-environment\/imd-unveils-weather-model-to-provide-block-level-forecast-of-monsoon-journey\/article70970\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>TH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong> Context <\/strong><\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> The India Meteorological Department has launched a new forecasting system capable of providing block-level forecasts of the southwest monsoon across 15 States and one Union Territory.\u00a0 <\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><strong> Weather forecasting in India <\/strong><\/p>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> India, at present, depends on satellite data and computer models for weather prediction. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) uses the INSAT series of satellites and supercomputers. <\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\"> In India three satellites, INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS are used mainly for meteorological observations.\u00a0 <\/li>\n<p><a href=\" https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/13-05-2026\/imd-block-level-monsoon \" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73579"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73581,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73579\/revisions\/73581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}