{"id":66365,"date":"2026-02-10T17:29:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T11:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=66365"},"modified":"2026-02-11T17:22:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T11:52:17","slug":"nuclear-proliferation-global-treaty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/10-02-2026\/nuclear-proliferation-global-treaty","title":{"rendered":"A START For Multilateralism: Nuclear Proliferation Needs A Global Treaty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS2\/International Relation; Global Grouping<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global concern over nuclear security has intensified with the <strong>expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)<\/strong> between the United States and Russia.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It fears that the world is edging closer to a <strong>renewed and unrestrained nuclear arms race.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Rising Global Threat Perceptions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A Shifting Security Landscape: <\/strong>Global threat perceptions have risen sharply in recent years as geopolitical competition intensifies and the post\u2013Cold War security order erodes.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It has amplified mistrust, accelerated military modernisation, and weakened long-standing arms-control norms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Return of Power Politics: Irredentism, neo-imperial ambitions, and assertive nationalism<\/strong> are once again shaping state behaviour.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Military force is increasingly used as a tool of coercion, while diplomatic mechanisms struggle to keep pace.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The resurgence of great-power rivalry has made conflict, both direct and proxy, more likely across multiple regions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nuclear Risks and Strategic Instability: <\/strong>The <strong>erosion of nuclear-arms control agreements<\/strong> has significantly heightened perceptions of existential threat.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nuclear-armed states like the <strong>United States, Russia, China, Israel, and Pakistan<\/strong> are expanding and upgrading their arsenals, with key treaties expiring and no credible replacements in place.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It has reduced transparency, weakened confidence-building measures, and increased the risk of miscalculation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional Insecurity Hotspots:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>West Asia<\/strong>, where shifting alliances and latent nuclear ambitions add volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Eastern Europe<\/strong>, shaped by war, territorial disputes, and military escalation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>East Asia<\/strong>, where strategic competition and arms build-ups are redefining deterrence dynamics.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>New START Treaty<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty-I (START-I)<\/strong> was signed between the <strong>US and the former USSR<\/strong> in 1991 and came into force in 1994.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It limited each side to 6,000 nuclear warheads and 1,600 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) but <strong>expired in 2009.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT, aka Treaty of Moscow):<\/strong> It replaced the <strong>START-I.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Later, the <strong>New START Treaty <\/strong>was signed in 2010 &amp; entered into force in 2011.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>New START Treaty:<\/strong> It caps the number of deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 on each side, with no more than 700 deployed ground or submarine launched missiles and bomber planes, and 800 launchers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Impact of New START\u2019s Expiry<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Its expiry removes the <strong>last remaining bilateral constraint<\/strong> on the world\u2019s two largest nuclear arsenals, which together account for <strong>around 90% of global nuclear weapons<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Both countries are now pursuing <strong>aggressive nuclear modernisation programmes,<\/strong> raising the likelihood of a <strong>rapid expansion in deployed warheads.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Widening Nuclear Landscape<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), there are <strong>nine nuclear-armed states<\/strong> possessing a combined <strong>12,241 warheads<\/strong>, with <strong>9,614<\/strong> in military stockpiles <em>(January 2025).<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Beyond the US and Russia, the <strong>UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel<\/strong> have all expanded or upgraded their arsenals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>India<\/strong> has overtaken Pakistan with about <strong>180 warheads<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>China<\/strong>, with roughly <strong>600 warheads<\/strong>, has the <strong>fastest-growing arsenal<\/strong> and is <strong>constructing hundreds of missile silos,<\/strong> potentially reaching parity with the US and Russia in <strong>intercontinental capabilities<\/strong> by the end of the decade.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Any future arms-control framework that excludes China is therefore likely to be ineffective.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Needs of Multilateral Mechanism For Disarmament<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): <\/strong>It still legally obliges its <strong>191 member states<\/strong> to pursue nuclear disarmament, while New START has lapsed.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The NPT review conference scheduled for <strong>April\u2013May<\/strong> offers a critical moment for renewed commitment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The growing interest in nuclear capabilities across <strong>West Asia, Eastern Europe, and East Asia<\/strong> underscores the need for a <strong>multilateral approach<\/strong> to arms control.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nuclear Weapons and the Myth of Absolute Deterrence: <\/strong>The possession of nuclear weapons <strong>does not eliminate conflict.<\/strong><strong>Low-intensity clashes<\/strong>, such as those between India and Pakistan, continue despite nuclear deterrence.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nuclear weapons add the <strong>constant risk of catastrophic escalation<\/strong>, especially under <strong>hyper-nationalistic leadership<\/strong> where crisis decision-making can be unpredictable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Role of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), 2017: <\/strong>It is the only international agreement that <strong>comprehensively bans nuclear weapons<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It provides a moral and legal framework that could support broader disarmament efforts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Although nearly <strong>100 countries have signed<\/strong> it, <strong>with 70 ratifications,<\/strong> none of the nuclear-armed states have joined.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Other Suggested Measures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Expand Arms Control Beyond a Bipolar Framework: Move past US\u2013Russia centrism<\/strong> by formally including <strong>China<\/strong> and gradually integrating other nuclear-armed states.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Adopt a <strong>tiered or phased approach<\/strong>, where major nuclear powers take the lead, followed by regional nuclear states.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recognise <strong>asymmetric arsenals<\/strong> and allow differentiated obligations rather than one-size-fits-all caps.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Adopt a \u2018Risk-Reduction First\u2019 Strategy: <\/strong>Given current distrust, immediate disarmament is unrealistic. Prioritise <strong>crisis stability measures<\/strong> such as de-alerting nuclear forces, <strong>no-first-use (NFU) commitments<\/strong>, clear nuclear doctrines and red-line communication.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Establish <strong>nuclear risk-reduction centres<\/strong> among rival blocs (e.g., NATO\u2013Russia, US\u2013China, India\u2013Pakistan).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strengthen Verification Through Technology: <\/strong>Use <strong>AI-assisted monitoring<\/strong>, satellite imagery, and remote sensing to enhance transparency.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Create a <strong>multilateral verification body<\/strong> under UN or IAEA oversight, reducing dependence on bilateral trust.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Allow <strong>managed access inspections<\/strong> to balance sovereignty concerns with credibility.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Link Nuclear Arms Control to Regional Security Frameworks: <\/strong>Address <strong>regional threat perceptions<\/strong>, which often drive nuclear expansion.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>East Asia:<\/strong> link arms control to Taiwan and Korean Peninsula stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>South Asia:<\/strong> integrate confidence-building with conventional-force restraint.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>West Asia:<\/strong> revive discussions on a <strong>WMD-free zone.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Address Emerging Technologies Explicitly: <\/strong>Include <strong>hypersonic weapons, cyber interference, AI-enabled command systems, and space assets<\/strong> in future agreements.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Prevent entanglement of nuclear and conventional systems that could cause accidental escalation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Establish norms against <strong>cyberattacks on nuclear command-and-control systems<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Depoliticise Arms Control Institutions: <\/strong>Insulate arms control talks from day-to-day geopolitical crises.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Use <strong>Track II and Track 1.5 diplomacy<\/strong> involving scientists, former officials, and strategic experts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Restore arms control as a <strong>technical security exercise<\/strong>, not a bargaining chip.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rebuild Strategic Trust Incrementally: <\/strong>Start with <strong>modest, verifiable steps<\/strong> rather than grand treaties.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Extend or replicate <strong>transparency and data-exchange mechanisms<\/strong> from past agreements like New START.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Regular high-level dialogue among nuclear powers must be institutionalised, not crisis-driven.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion: A Moment for a Fresh Start<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>expiry of New START<\/strong> is a reminder of the fragility of global nuclear restraint.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The international community has an opportunity to push for <strong>inclusive, multilateral disarmament talks r<\/strong>ather than sliding into a new arms race.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A genuine \u2018fresh start\u2019 will require leadership from the principal nuclear powers and sustained global pressure to ensure that nuclear weapons do not continue to define the future of international security.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#ebecf0\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q]<\/strong>&nbsp; Examine the need for a <strong>multilateral global treaty on nuclear proliferation and disarmament<\/strong>. Suggest measures to make multilateral nuclear arms control effective in the current geopolitical environment.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/opinion\/editorial\/a-start-for-multilateralism-nuclear-proliferation-needs-a-global-treaty-126020901557_1.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source: BS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Daily-Editorial-Analysis-10-02-2026.pdf\"><strong>Download PDF<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Published on:<\/strong> 10 February, 2026<\/p>\n<p>Global concern over nuclear security has intensified with the expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":66369,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Editorial-Analysis-900-600-4.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66365"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66365\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66455,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66365\/revisions\/66455"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}