{"id":5635,"date":"2022-11-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/current_affairs\/uncategorized\/23-11-2022\/china-india-population-growth-implications\/"},"modified":"2022-11-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2022-11-23T00:00:00","slug":"china-india-population-growth-implications","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/23-11-2022\/china-india-population-growth-implications","title":{"rendered":"China, India population growth: Implications"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:13pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>In News\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Recently,the United Nations said that the<\/span><\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/current-affairs\/16-11-2022\/world-population-reaches-8-billion-un\" style=\"text-decoration:none\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#1155cc\"><u> global population had reached 8 billion<\/u><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:13pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>About\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">2022 and 2023 will see two landmark demographic events.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">In 2022, China will for the first time register an absolute decline in its population.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">in 2023, India\u2019s population, projected by the United Nations to reach 1,428.63 million, will surpass China\u2019s 1,425.67 million.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:13pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Primary drivers of population change.<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Mortality: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Mortality falls with increased education levels, public health and vaccination programmes, access to food and medical care, and provision of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities. The crude death rate (CDR) \u2014 the number of persons dying per year per 1,000 population \u2014 was 23.2 for China and 22.2 for India in 1950.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0It fell to single digits for China first in 1974 (to 9.5) and for India in 1994 (9.8), and further to 7.3-7.4 for both in 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Reduction in mortality normally leads to a rising population. A drop in fertility, on the other hand, slows down population growth, ultimately resulting in absolute declines.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Fertility:\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The total fertility rate (TFR) \u2014 the number of babies an average woman bears over her lifetime \u2014 was as high as 5.8 for China and 5.7 for India in 1950.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">the TFR has fallen for India in the last three decades and the fall was especially significant in the rural areas and China\u2019s TFR dipped below replacement first in 1991, which was almost 30 years before India\u2019s.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The TFR is the average number of births by women aged 15-49 based on surveys for a particular period\/year. Populations can keep growing even with TFRs falling.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:square\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">De-growth requires TFRs to remain below replacement levels for extended periods. The effects of that \u2014 fewer children today becoming parents tomorrow and procreating just as much or less \u2014 may reflect only after a couple of generations.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:13pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>The Potential implications\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Crisis for china<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">: The real crisis for China is the decline in its population that is of prime working age.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">the share of China\u2019s working-age population is projected to fall below 50% by 2045.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:square\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">In short, China faces the prospect of a dwindling labour force having to support a rapidly ageing population.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>India has an opportunity: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">India has just begun seeing fertility rates fall to replacement levels, including in rural areas. The latter has to do with the spread of education \u2014 and, perhaps, also farm mechanisation and fragmentation of landholdings.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Reduced labour requirements in agricultural operations and smaller holdings make it that much less necessary to have large families working the land.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">But even with the fertility rate declines, India\u2019s population is projected to expand and de-grow only after touching 1.7 billion about 40 years from now.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:square\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0More important is the working-age population: its share in the overall population crossed 50% only in 2007, and will peak at 57% towards the mid-2030s .<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/1Gnwr0M3soJwF6SP96GFXZazVTchPCMlb_hy94Zbdi4GTgK203eWha6TFUDm1ZAMYz2mC6UUE_zwm9_K136aAtt8BJ7pwPTgFVP1-ShOkV0JVRm9ju1Y1fZcy1APB4UE_WoUTjYlaA-_TlneRcOEt8tklcv5w6rYqBOk_rGkPj5QVLQPUcFoZWwRLc9cGQ\" style=\"height:264px; width:406px\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">In absolute terms, the population aged 20-59 years will increase from 760 million in 2020 to nearly 920 million in 2045.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Overall then, India has a window of opportunity well into the 2040s for reaping its \u201cdemographic dividend\u201d, as China did from the late 1980s until 2015.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0That is, of course, contingent upon the creation of meaningful employment opportunities for a young population.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The share of the workforce in agriculture has slowed: agriculture accounted for around 65% of the country\u2019s employed labour force in 1993-94. That share fell significantly to 49% by 2011-12.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0But the trend has slowed, if not reversed, thereafter.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:13pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Conclusion and Way Forward\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Going forward, the challenge before India\u2019s policymakers is to promote growth that generates jobs outside of agriculture. These mustn\u2019t merely be in construction and low-paid informal services.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The surplus labour from farms should find employment in sectors \u2014 manufacturing and modern services \u2014 where productivity, value-addition and average incomes are higher.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">We must focus on investing in each person to achieve a quality of life that allows them to thrive equally and with dignity in our modern world, building inclusive societies and sustainable economies in the face of overlapping crises.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0In the absence of such structural transformation, the \u201cdemographic dividend\u201d could well turn into a \u201cdemographic nightmare\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"border-collapse:collapse; border:none; table-layout:fixed; width:624px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"background-color:#d9ead3; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top\">\n<p style=\"text-align:center\"><span style=\"font-size:13pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Mains Practice Question\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>[Q]<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:'Book Antiqua',serif\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> Do you agree that Rapid population growth makes eradicating poverty, combating hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more difficult?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In News\u00a0 Recently,the United Nations said that the global population had reached 8 billion About\u00a0 2022 and 2023 will see two landmark demographic events.\u00a0 In 2022, China will for the first time register an absolute decline in its population.\u00a0 in 2023, India\u2019s population, projected by the United Nations to reach 1,428.63 million, will surpass China\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[25,96],"class_list":["post-5635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial-analysis","tag-gs1","tag-population-associated-issues"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2023\/07\/2376017Screenshot_6.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}