{"id":46487,"date":"2025-06-28T19:27:32","date_gmt":"2025-06-28T13:57:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=46487"},"modified":"2025-06-28T19:27:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T13:57:33","slug":"china-led-trilateral-nexus-as-india-new-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/28-06-2025\/china-led-trilateral-nexus-as-india-new-challenge","title":{"rendered":"A China-led Trilateral Nexus as India\u2019s New Challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS2\/International Relation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recently, China hosted the <strong>first-ever trilateral meeting<\/strong> with Pakistan and Bangladesh in <strong>Kunming<\/strong>, on the sidelines of the <strong>China-South Asia Exposition<\/strong>. It has <strong>far-reaching implications<\/strong> for South Asia \u2014 <strong>particularly for India<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebecf0\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Kunming Trilateral (June 2025)<\/strong><br>&#8211; It was focused on enhancing cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, trade, maritime affairs, and climate change.<br>1. <strong>China, Pakistan and Bangladesh<\/strong> emphasized a shared vision for \u2018peace, prosperity, and stability\u2019 in the region.<br>&#8211; It followed a <strong>similar trilateral involving China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan<\/strong>, signaling China\u2019s intent <strong>to institutionalize regional groupings<\/strong> that <strong>exclude India<\/strong> while <strong>expanding<\/strong> the scope of the <strong>China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)<\/strong>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Historical Foundations: Motivations Behind the Nexus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>1962 War Legacy: <\/strong>The <strong>India-China War of 1962<\/strong> set the foundation for the enduring China-Pakistan alliance.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>For China, Pakistan served as a strategic buffer to constrain India.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For Pakistan, China emerged as an unflinching economic and military benefactor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Economic and Military Dependence: <\/strong>Pakistan owed over $29 billion to China (By the end of 2024)\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>80% of Pakistan\u2019s arms imports<\/strong> originate from China.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China continues to <strong>shield Pakistan at the UN<\/strong>, especially in matters involving terrorism.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bangladesh\u2019s Emergence and Early Tensions: <\/strong>Bangladesh was carved out of Pakistan\u2019s eastern wing in 1971.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>China, which had supported Pakistan during the 1971 war, recognized Bangladesh only in 1976.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Resurfacing of an Old Strategy: \u2018China-Pakistan Plus One\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Historical Roots: <\/strong>Pakistan considered leveraging China, East Pakistan, and Nepal to disrupt India\u2019s access to its northeast via the Siliguri corridor, as far back as 1965.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Current Manifestations<\/strong>: Terror attacks in <strong>Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and Pahalgam (2025)<\/strong> have seen decisive Indian retaliation.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>India\u2019s diplomatic offensives<\/strong> \u2014 including suspension of treaties, trade halts, and targeted strikes \u2014 have <strong>exposed Pakistan\u2019s vulnerabilities<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Simultaneously, India\u2019s border responses in <strong>Doklam (2017)<\/strong> and <strong>Galwan (2020)<\/strong> caught China off guard.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Implications for India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Two-Front Strategic Pressure:<\/strong> With <strong>China to the north<\/strong> and <strong>Pakistan to the west<\/strong>, Bangladesh\u2019s growing alignment with them potentially opens a <strong>third vector of strategic concern<\/strong> on India\u2019s eastern flank.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This triangulation could stretch India\u2019s military and diplomatic bandwidth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Encirclement Anxiety:<\/strong> The nexus reinforces the perception of a Chinese-led strategy to encircle India, especially with the expansion of BRI and potential military cooperation in Bangladesh.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Vulnerability To Siliguri Corridor:<\/strong><strong>Siliguri Corridor<\/strong><em> (aka \u2018Chicken\u2019s Neck\u2019)<\/em> that connects <strong>mainland India to its northeastern states<\/strong> becomes even more critical.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Any increased Chinese or Pakistani presence in Bangladesh could threaten this narrow corridor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Operational Challenges:<\/strong> The use of <strong>Chinese-made military hardware<\/strong> by Pakistan during recent escalations, and <strong>Bangladesh\u2019s participation in Pakistani naval exercises (Aman-25)<\/strong>, suggests greater interoperability among the three militaries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Implications for the Indo-Pacific<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Maritime Realignment:<\/strong> The nexus could facilitate Chinese naval access to the Bay of Bengal via Bangladesh, complementing its presence in Gwadar (Pakistan) and Hambantota (Sri Lanka).\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It would enhance China\u2019s ability to project power across the Indian Ocean.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Undermining Regional Groupings:<\/strong> China\u2019s trilateral diplomacy may undermine India-led regional initiatives like <strong>BIMSTEC and BBIN<\/strong>, while further sidelining <strong>SAARC, <\/strong>which has <strong>already been weakened<\/strong> by India-Pakistan tensions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Quad and ASEAN Response:<\/strong> The U.S., Japan, Australia, and India<strong> (QUAD)<\/strong> may need to recalibrate their Indo-Pacific strategy to account for this emerging axis.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>ASEAN nations,<\/strong> particularly Myanmar and Sri Lanka, could be drawn into this evolving contest for influence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Economic Leverage:<\/strong> China\u2019s deepening economic ties with both Pakistan and Bangladesh \u2014 through infrastructure, trade, and debt \u2014 could shift regional supply chains and investment flows away from India.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>India\u2019s Strategic Outreach<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Maldives<\/strong> has shifted closer to India economically despite its president\u2019s earlier anti-India stance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Nepal\u2019s BRI projects with China<\/strong> remain stalled due to funding concerns.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sri Lanka\u2019s new leadership<\/strong> has visibly aligned with India\u2019s redlines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>India has not obstructed regional energy initiatives<\/strong>, despite souring ties with Bangladesh.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>India\u2019s Potential Approach<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strategic and Military Posturing:<\/strong> Strengthen border infrastructure in the Northeast, especially around the Siliguri Corridor, to deter encirclement.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Enhance maritime surveillance and naval presence in the Bay of Bengal to counter Chinese influence in Bangladesh.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Modernize defense capabilities and increase joint military exercises with allies like QUAD.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Diplomatic Engagement:<\/strong> Rebuild trust with Bangladesh through high-level visits, economic incentives, and people-to-people ties.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Deepen ties with Afghanistan to limit Pakistan\u2019s leverage and counter Chinese outreach.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Assert redlines diplomatically, making it clear that provocations will have economic and political consequences.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Economic Leverage:<\/strong> Expand regional trade and connectivity projects like the <strong>India-Bangladesh-Nepal<\/strong> energy corridor.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Offer competitive alternatives to Chinese investments, especially in infrastructure and digital connectivity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Use economic tools (e.g., trade restrictions, port access denial) selectively to signal disapproval without alienating neighbors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional Coalition Building:<\/strong> Strengthen BIMSTEC and SAARC as platforms for regional cooperation excluding China.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Promote trilateral and multilateral dialogues with like-minded countries to dilute China\u2019s influence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Support democratic institutions and civil society in neighboring countries to counter authoritarian influence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Information and Cyber Strategy:<\/strong> Counter disinformation campaigns and propaganda that aim to destabilize India\u2019s regional image.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Invest in cybersecurity to protect critical infrastructure from potential threats linked to Chinese tech.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategic Patience and Flexibility:<\/strong> Avoid overreaction to provocations; instead, use calibrated responses to maintain moral high ground.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Adapt to regime changes in neighboring countries with pragmatic diplomacy rather than ideological rigidity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q]<\/strong> How does the emerging China-led trilateral nexus with Pakistan and Bangladesh redefine India\u2019s strategic landscape in South Asia, and what measures could India adopt in response?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/op-ed\/a-china-led-trilateral-nexus-as-indias-new-challenge\/article69745715.ece\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Source: TH<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/UPSC-Editorial-Analysis-28-June-2025.PDF.pdf\">Download PDF<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recently, China hosted the first-ever trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming, on the sidelines of the China-South Asia Exposition. It has far-reaching implications for South Asia \u2014 particularly for India.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46487"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46492,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46487\/revisions\/46492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}