{"id":44366,"date":"2025-05-29T20:55:52","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T15:25:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=44366"},"modified":"2025-05-29T20:56:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T15:26:03","slug":"wmo-global-temperature-likely-breach-in-next-5-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/29-05-2025\/wmo-global-temperature-likely-breach-in-next-5-years","title":{"rendered":"Global Temperature Likely to Breach 1.5\u00b0C in Next Five Years: WMO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS3\/Environment and Ecology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)<\/strong> has released the \u2018<strong>Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)\u2019.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Temperature Projections:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2024: <\/strong>The year 2024 was not only the<strong> hottest year<\/strong> on record but also the <strong>first year to breach 1.5\u00b0C <\/strong>above the 1850\u20131900 baseline.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2025\u20132029: <\/strong>There is a<strong> 70% chance<\/strong> that the <strong>average global temperature for the 2025-2029 <\/strong>period will exceed pre-industrial levels by <strong>more than 1.5\u00b0C.\u00a0<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>80% chance<\/strong> of at least <strong>one of the next 5 years<\/strong> surpassing 2024 temperature.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>86% chance<\/strong> that <strong>at least one year<\/strong> will cross the 1.5\u00b0C threshold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Avg. global temperature<\/strong> predicted to be <strong>between 1.2\u00b0C and 1.9\u00b0C higher<\/strong> <strong>than avg. for 1850-1900.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Predicted precipitation <\/strong>patterns for<strong> May-Sep 2025-2029 to be wetter than average.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>1% chance<\/strong> of at least one year<strong> exceeding 2\u00b0C <\/strong>of warming in the next five years .<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Regional Climate Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>South Asia:<\/strong> Expected to continue with <strong>wetter-than-usual years<\/strong> (except 2023), and this trend is expected to continue between <strong>2025 and 2029<\/strong>, although some seasons might still be dry.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Arctic: <\/strong>Projected warming of <strong>~2.4\u00b0C<\/strong> over winters\u2014<strong>3.5x faster <\/strong>than global average over the next five winters (November to March)<strong>.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Sea ice<\/strong> is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the <strong>Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional anomalies (2025\u20132029):<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Wetter:<\/strong> Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, Northern Siberia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Drier:<\/strong> Amazon region.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>India:<\/strong> India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebecf0\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Paris Agreement<\/strong><br>&#8211; It is a <strong>legally binding international treaty<\/strong> on climate change, adopted in <strong>2015<\/strong>, at the <strong>COP21<\/strong> to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).<br>&#8211; It aims to <strong>limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius<\/strong> above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to<strong> limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.\u00a0<\/strong><br>&#8211; <strong>The 1.5\u00b0C limit is a goal, not a legal boundary.<\/strong><br>1. <strong>A permanent breach<\/strong> implies <strong>long-term warming over 20\u201330 years,<\/strong> not a single year.<br>&#8211; The Paris Agreement emphasizes<strong> nationally determined contributions (NDCs)<\/strong> and encourages all countries to take climate action.<br>1. Countries must <strong>review and update their NDCs every five years<\/strong> to enhance their efforts and increase ambition over time.<br>2. <strong>180 of the 195\u00a0 UNFCCC<\/strong> countries are yet to submit their next round of NDCs for 2031-35 before the <strong>30th Conference of the Parties (COP30).<\/strong><br><strong>World Metrological Organisation<\/strong><br>&#8211; It is an <strong>intergovernmental organization<\/strong> with a membership of <strong>193 Member States <\/strong>and Territories established in<strong> 1950.<\/strong><br>&#8211; It is the <strong>specialised agency of the United Nations<\/strong> for <strong>meteorology<\/strong> (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.\u00a0<br>&#8211; It is headquartered in<strong> Geneva.\u00a0<\/strong><br>&#8211; Its supreme body is the <strong>World Meteorological Congress.<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/energy-and-environment\/earths-average-temperature-for-2025-29-likely-to-exceed-15c-limit-wmo\/article69627923.ece\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>TH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h3>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released the \u2018Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)\u2019.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Key Temperature Projections:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">2024: The year 2024 was not only the hottest year on record but also the first year to breach 1.5\u00b0C above the 1850\u20131900 baseline.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">2025\u20132029: There is a 70% chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5\u00b0C.\u00a0<\/li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/29-05-2025\/wmo-global-temperature-likely-breach-in-next-5-years\" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read\u00a0More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44366"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44384,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44366\/revisions\/44384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}