{"id":42214,"date":"2025-04-28T19:41:22","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T14:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=42214"},"modified":"2025-04-28T19:41:34","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T14:11:34","slug":"india-monsoon-forecasting-history-and-evolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/28-04-2025\/india-monsoon-forecasting-history-and-evolution","title":{"rendered":"History and Evolution of Monsoon Forecasting in India"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus :GS 1\/Geography&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>In News<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted\u00a0 &#8216;above normal&#8217; rainfall (105% of the long-period average) during the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June-September).\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The monsoon is crucial for agriculture, economy, and water resources, providing around<strong> 70% of India\u2019s annual rainfall.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since 2007, the accuracy of monsoon forecasts has improved significantly, with the absolute error in rainfall reducing by 21% from 1989-2006 to 2007-2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Do you know?<\/strong><br>&#8211; Meteorology in India dates back to ancient times, with early texts like the <strong>Upanishads, Brihatsamhita, Arthashastra, and Meghdoot <\/strong>showing advanced understanding of weather and rain.\u00a0<br>&#8211; Scientific meteorology began in the 17th century, with Edmund Halley explaining the monsoon. The British established early observatories in the 18th and 19th centuries, and Captain Piddington coined the term &#8220;cyclone.&#8221;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>History of Monsoon Forecasting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The IMD began forecasting the monsoon in 1877, driven by the need to understand rainfall patterns after the<strong> devastating 1876-78 Great Famine<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Henry Francis Blanford,<\/strong> in the late 1800s, studied the relationship between Himalayan snow cover and monsoon rainfall.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He made the first long-range forecast in 1886.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sir John Eliot<\/strong> took <strong>Blanford&#8217;s work<\/strong> forward by incorporating local weather conditions and data from the Indian Ocean and Australia, although his predictions were still limited in accuracy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sir Gilbert Walker in 1904<\/strong>, introduced statistical models using 28 parameters, identifying the <strong>Southern Oscillation (SO<\/strong>) as a key influence on the Indian monsoon.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He divided India into three subregions for forecasting.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scenario After Independence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>IMD continued using Walker&#8217;s model until 1987, but it became less effective due to changes in climate patterns and loss of correlation with key parameters.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In 1988, The IMD shifted to a new regression model <strong>(Gowariker Model)<\/strong> using 16 variables, but issues persisted with the accuracy of regional forecasts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"6cb6cb\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"606\" height=\"230\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Scenario-After-Independence.png\" alt=\"Scenario After Independence\" class=\"not-transparent wp-image-42215\" style=\"--dominant-color: #6cb6cb; width:542px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Scenario-After-Independence.png 606w, https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Scenario-After-Independence-300x114.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 606px) 100vw, 606px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>New Models and Strategies\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u00a0In 2003<\/strong>, IMD introduced two new models based on 8 and 10 parameters.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The two-stage forecast strategy was also implemented, although it had mixed results.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>In 2007, <\/strong>IMD developed a<strong> Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System,<\/strong> reducing the number of parameters to improve accuracy and introduced ensemble forecasts to increase robustness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>In\u00a0 2012<\/strong>, the <strong>Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)<\/strong> was launched to combine ocean, atmospheric, and land data for better forecasts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>In 2021, <\/strong>the<strong> Multi-Model Ensemble system<\/strong> further improved forecast accuracy by combining global climate models, including MMCFS.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source :IE<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>In News<\/strong><\/h3>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted\u00a0 &#8216;above normal&#8217; rainfall (105% of the long-period average) during the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June-September).<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3><strong>History of Monsoon Forecasting<\/strong><\/h3>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">The IMD began forecasting the monsoon in 1877, driven by the need to understand rainfall patterns after the devastating 1876-78 Great Famine.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">Henry Francis Blanford, in the late 1800s, studied the relationship between Himalayan snow cover and monsoon rainfall.<\/li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/28-04-2025\/india-monsoon-forecasting-history-and-evolution\" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42214"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42214\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42229,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42214\/revisions\/42229"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}