{"id":41821,"date":"2025-04-23T19:25:45","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T13:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=41821"},"modified":"2025-04-23T19:26:12","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T13:56:12","slug":"extreme-weather-events-forecasting-with-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/23-04-2025\/extreme-weather-events-forecasting-with-ai","title":{"rendered":"Extreme Weather Events Forecasting with AI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/ Geography<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>With rising extreme weather events, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative tool to improve prediction accuracy beyond traditional models.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Traditional Model of Weather Prediction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traditional weather forecasting uses <strong>numerical weather prediction (NWP) <\/strong>models.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The model simulates atmospheric processes using equations of <strong>fluid dynamics and thermodynamics.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These physics-based models input observational data from satellites, radars, and weather stations and require high-performance supercomputers for computation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Prediction of Weather with AI Models<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Unlike traditional weather models that rely on the laws of physics, AI-based models begin with data.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These models use <strong>machine learning algorithms<\/strong> to identify patterns and learn <strong>relationships between input variables<\/strong>\u2014such as temperature, humidity, wind speed\u2014and resulting weather events like cyclones or heavy rainfall.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They do this without any prior knowledge of the physical processes that govern the Earth&#8217;s atmosphere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Advantages of AI Models in Weather Forecasting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ability to Use Big Data: <\/strong>AI models can process massive datasets from satellites, radars, weather stations, and even social media, allowing them to detect subtle signals and trends.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Handling of Nonlinear Systems: <\/strong>AI models have the potential to uncover hidden patterns and nonlinear cause-effect relationships among Earth system variables that physics-based models may overlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Adaptability to Local Conditions:<\/strong> AI allows for region-specific models that account for local geographical, topographical, and climatic factors, improving forecast relevance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Real-time Forecasting: <\/strong>AI is capable of rapid &#8220;nowcasting&#8221; \u2014 forecasting weather within the next few hours \u2014 which is crucial for disaster preparedness and urban planning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Challenges in AI-Based Weather Forecasting<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Complexity:<\/strong> Weather systems\u00a0 require sophisticated models to capture their dynamic nature.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Human Resource Gap:<\/strong> There is a lack of professionals with interdisciplinary expertise in both meteorology and AI\/ML.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This hampers the development and deployment of high-quality models.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inadequate Sensor Network: <\/strong>The diverse topography of India necessitates regionally tailored models, but this is hindered by gaps in meteorological infrastructure, leading to poor data availability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Climate Change:<\/strong> AI models trained on today\u2019s climate data may become less effective in a warmer future, as the atmospheric system continues to evolve due to climate change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Data-Related Issues:<\/strong> AI models require large, high-quality datasets to train effectively. However, these are compromised by sensor errors, inconsistencies in format, and spatial-temporal gaps in the data, especially in remote regions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Black Box Nature of AI Models:<\/strong> AI systems, particularly deep learning models, operate as \u201cblack boxes\u201d, meaning their decision-making processes are opaque.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This hinders trust and interpretability, especially among non-experts and operational meteorologists.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Weather Prediction in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India, at present, depends on <strong>satellite data and computer models <\/strong>for weather prediction. The <strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong> uses the <strong>INSAT<\/strong> series of satellites and supercomputers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In India three satellites, <strong>INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS <\/strong>are used mainly for meteorological observations.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasters use satellite data around <strong>cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapor content<\/strong> that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Initiatives taken to improve the efficiency<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Mission Mausam:<\/strong> It was launched to upgrade the capabilities of India\u2019s weather department in forecasting, modelling, and dissemination. The objectives of the mission are;\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Develop Cutting Edge Weather Surveillance Technologies &amp; Systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Implement Next-generation radars, and satellites with advanced instrument payloads<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Develop improved earth system models, and data-driven methods (use of AI\/ML).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The &#8216;National Monsoon Mission&#8217; <\/strong>was set out in <strong>2012<\/strong> to move the nation over to a system that relies more on <strong>real-time, on-the-ground data gathering.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The IMD is also increasingly using <strong>Doppler radars<\/strong> to improve efficiency in predictions. The number of Doppler radars has increased from <strong>15 in 2013 to 37 in 2023.\u00a0<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Doppler radars are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare have initiated the <strong>weather information network and data system (WINDS) <\/strong>under which<strong> <\/strong>more than <strong>200,000 ground stations <\/strong>will be installed,<strong> <\/strong>to generate long-term, hyper-local weather data.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#ebecf0\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong><br>&#8211; IMD is an agency of the <strong>Ministry of Earth Sciences.<\/strong><br>&#8211; It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.<br>&#8211; It is also one of the six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres of the <strong>World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/sci-tech\/science\/artificial-intelligence-india-forecasting-extreme-weather\/article69452413.ece#:~:text=Despite%20several%20challenges%2C%20scientists%20b\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>TH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h3>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">With rising extreme weather events, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative tool to improve prediction accuracy beyond traditional models.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Traditional Model of Weather Prediction<\/strong><\/h3>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">Traditional weather forecasting uses numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li class=\"ms-5\">The model simulates atmospheric processes using equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics.\u00a0<\/li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/23-04-2025\/extreme-weather-events-forecasting-with-ai\" class=\"btn btn-primary btn-sm float-end\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41821"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41821\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41854,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41821\/revisions\/41854"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}