{"id":35649,"date":"2025-01-17T18:35:13","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T13:05:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=35649"},"modified":"2025-01-17T18:35:14","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T13:05:14","slug":"india-demographic-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/17-01-2025\/india-demographic-transition","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s Demographic Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/Population and GS3\/Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A report by McKinsey &amp; Company highlights that India is on the <strong>verge of a significant demographic shift.<\/strong> By the 2050s, India is projected to have a support ratio comparable to advanced economies, indicating rapid ageing of its population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Major Highlights<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Impact on Economic Growth: <\/strong>India\u2019s <strong>demographic dividend<\/strong> contributed <strong>0.7 percentage points<\/strong> annually to GDP per capita growth from 1997 to 2023.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>By 2050, this contribution is expected to decline to just <strong>0.2 percentage points<\/strong> per year, reflecting the diminishing advantage of a young population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rising Dependency Ratio: <\/strong>In 1997, India had <strong>14 working-age people<\/strong> (15-64 years) for every senior aged 65 or older.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>By 2050, this will drop to <strong>4.6 workers per senior<\/strong>, and by 2100, to <strong>1.9 workers per senior<\/strong>, similar to Japan today.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Female Labor Force Participation: <\/strong>Female labor force participation in the 20-49 age group is just <strong>29%<\/strong> in India, compared to <strong>50-70% in other emerging economies<\/strong> and <strong>74% in high-income countries<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Increasing female workforce participation is a key recommendation to mitigate economic consequences.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fertility Rate and Population Trends: <\/strong>India\u2019s fertility rate is <strong>1.98 children per woman<\/strong>, below the replacement rate of <strong>2.1<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to UN projections, India\u2019s population will peak at <strong>1.7 billion in 2061<\/strong> before declining.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>By the end of the century, India will have more than twice the population of China.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Recommendation: <\/strong>One way India can delay the negative economic consequences of demographic shift is by increasing female labor force participation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Data on India\u2019s Ageing Population<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>As per the India Ageing Report 2023, <\/strong>the share of population over the age of 60 years is projected to<strong> increase from 10.5% in 2022 to 20.8% in 2050.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>By the end of the century, the elderly will constitute over<strong> 36% of the total population of the country.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>80+Years Population:<\/strong> The population of people aged 80+ years will grow at a rate of around<strong> 279% between 2022 and 2050, <\/strong>with a predominance of widowed and highly dependent very old women.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>India\u2019s Demographic Dividend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Demographic Dividend:<\/strong> It refers to the <strong>economic growth potential<\/strong> that <strong>results from shifts in a population\u2019s age structure<\/strong>, mainly when the share of the <strong>working-age population (15 to 64 years old)<\/strong> is larger than the <strong>non-working-age population (14 or younger and 65 or older)<\/strong>.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The change in age structure is typically brought on by a <strong>decline in fertility and mortality rates.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>India\u2019s Demographic Dividend:<\/strong> India, with its large and young population, is currently experiencing a demographic dividend.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India is expected to add another 183 million people to the working-age group between 2020 and 2050.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The dividend would peak around 2041 (when the working age population would be 59 per cent of India&#8217;s population) and is expected to last until 2055.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Challenges India Face<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Unemployment: <\/strong>For the demographic dividend to work, the country must provide <strong>productive employment to the 7-8 million youths<\/strong> that join the labourforce every year.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Youth unemployment was 5.7% in 2000 and jumped to 17.5% in 2019, showing an increase of more than 300 per cent.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In 2022, the unemployment rate among graduates was around 29%, while for those who cannot read and write, it was just 3.4%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Education and Skill Gap: <\/strong>Over two-fifths of the country\u2019s youths are educated below the secondary level and just 4% have access to vocational training.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gender Inequality: <\/strong>Women&#8217;s participation in the workforce remains relatively low, limiting the overall potential of the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Measures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Skill Development:<\/strong> Programs like the Skill India Mission aim to provide training and certification to millions of youth, enhancing their employability in various sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Education Reforms: <\/strong>Efforts to improve primary and secondary education quality, by introducing new Education Policy 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Make in India &amp; Atmanirbhar Bharat:<\/strong> These initiatives focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, creating jobs, and enhancing industrial capacity to absorb the growing workforce.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Start-up Ecosystem: <\/strong>The Startup India campaign encourages entrepreneurship, providing support to young innovators and creating new employment opportunities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Digital Infrastructure: <\/strong>Expanding internet access and digital literacy through programs like Digital India to create opportunities for youth in the technology and digital sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Healthcare Improvements: <\/strong>Programs like Ayushman Bharat aim to improve healthcare access and outcomes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Developed countries<\/strong> have long crossed this zone that ensured their economic growth.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Currently, they are in the <strong>\u201cpopulation ageing\u201d phase<\/strong> and increasingly depend on migrants.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The developing and poor countries,<\/strong> including India, account for more than <strong>90% <\/strong>of the world\u2019s young population.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But if they cannot generate employment, it is not<strong> just a loss of this dividend but also a larger issue of economic stagnancy.\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Besides, such a large population of young people without productive vocations or engagements <strong>will trigger social unrest.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/economy\/policy\/india-has-33-years-to-reap-the-benefits-of-demographic-dividend-says-mckinsey-report\/articleshow\/117256107.cms?from=mdr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>ET<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A report by McKinsey &#038; Company highlights that India is on the verge of a significant demographic shift. By the 2050s, India is projected to have a support ratio comparable to advanced economies, indicating rapid ageing of its population.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35649"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35649\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35650,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35649\/revisions\/35650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}