{"id":28457,"date":"2024-08-29T18:02:04","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T12:32:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=28457"},"modified":"2024-09-02T17:36:49","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T12:06:49","slug":"indias-weather-forecasting-needs-an-upgrade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/29-08-2024\/indias-weather-forecasting-needs-an-upgrade","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s Weather Forecasting Needs an Upgrade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS1\/ Geography<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The recent extreme weather events have put the focus back on the country&#8217;s weather prediction capabilities and ways to improve them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Weather Prediction in India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India, at present, depends on <strong>satellite data and computer models <\/strong>for weather prediction. The <strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong> uses the <strong>INSAT<\/strong> series of satellites and supercomputers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In India three satellites, <strong>INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS <\/strong>are used mainly for meteorological observations.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasters use satellite data around <strong>cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapor content<\/strong> that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Initiatives taken to improve the efficiency<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The &#8216;National Monsoon Mission&#8217; <\/strong>was set out in <strong>2012<\/strong> to move the nation over to a system that relies more on <strong>real-time, on-the-ground data gathering.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The IMD is also increasingly using <strong>Doppler radars<\/strong> to improve efficiency in predictions. The number of Doppler radars has increased from <strong>15 in 2013 to 37 in 2023.&nbsp;<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Doppler radars are used to predict rainfall in the immediate vicinity, making predictions more timely and accurate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The weather agency is now using <strong>manned and automatic weather stations, aircraft, ships, weather balloons, ocean buoys and satellites<\/strong> to gather information on atmospheric temperature, pressure humidity, wind speed and direction and sea surface temperatures.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The data is then fed into a supercomputer at the <strong>Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Ministry of Agriculture &amp; Farmers Welfare have initiated the <strong>weather information network and data system (WINDS) <\/strong>under which<strong> <\/strong>more than <strong>200,000 ground stations <\/strong>will be installed,<strong> <\/strong>to generate long-term, hyper-local weather data.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Challenges<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Lack of weather monitoring ground stations:<\/strong> Currently, IMD operates around <strong>800<\/strong> automatic weather stations (AWS), <strong>1,500 <\/strong>automatic rain gauges (ARG) and <strong>37 <\/strong>doppler weather radars (DWR).\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This is against the total requirements of more than <strong>3,00,000<\/strong> ground stations (AWS\/ARG) and around 70 DWRs.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Lack of coordination: <\/strong>Several Indian State governments and private companies operate a significant network of ground stations (more than 20,000), many of which are not currently used by IMD due to inaccessibility and\/or reliability of the data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Extreme Weather Events: <\/strong>Events, such as extreme rainfall, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/landslides\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/landslides\/\">landslides<\/a><\/strong>, and cloudbursts, have become more frequent due to climate change. These events are highly localized and erratic, making them difficult to predict with existing weather simulation models.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Outdated Prediction Models:<\/strong> Currently, most of the prediction software used in forecasting are based on the global forecasting system and weather research and forecasting models, both of which are not the most modern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Forecasting weather in the tropics<\/strong> is more challenging than in areas that are farther from the equator, because of greater variability in weather phenomena.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Predicting large-scale systems<\/strong> like monsoons, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/cyclones\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/cyclones\/\"><strong>cyclones<\/strong><\/a>, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/heatwaves\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/heatwaves\/\"><strong>heat waves<\/strong><\/a> is<strong> easier due to their widespread nature<\/strong>. However localized events like cloudbursts and sudden, unexpected weather phenomena are much harder to forecast accurately<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Need for precision: <\/strong>IMD currently has the ability to forecast weather events over a 12 km x 12 km area. This grid is larger than most Indian cities.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>For hyper-local forecasts there is a need for <strong>1 km x 1 km<\/strong> forecast.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Way Ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Predicting weather events with a high level of accuracy has become increasingly important in India, one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is an urgent need for an<strong> integrated system to fill the data gaps<\/strong>. New ground stations will have to be installed and the available data have to be shared seamlessly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Also the focus should be on greater integration of <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/artificial-intelligence-ai\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/blog\/artificial-intelligence-ai\/\">artificial intelligence<\/a> and machine learning (AI\/ML)<\/strong> in weather forecasting to get more accurate results.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong><br>&#8211; IMD is an agency of the <strong>Ministry of Earth Sciences.<\/strong><br>&#8211; It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.<br>&#8211; It is also one of the six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres of the <strong>World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/dianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/explained-climate\/india-met-department-upgradation-imd-forecasting-tools-monsoon-season-vintage-meteorological-instruments-95\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>IE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent extreme weather events have put the focus back on the country&#8217;s weather prediction capabilities and ways to improve them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28457"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28457\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28773,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28457\/revisions\/28773"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}