{"id":27292,"date":"2024-08-09T18:14:26","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T12:44:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=27292"},"modified":"2024-08-10T12:06:21","modified_gmt":"2024-08-10T06:36:21","slug":"change-in-bangladesh-the-challenges-for-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/09-08-2024\/change-in-bangladesh-the-challenges-for-india","title":{"rendered":"Change in Bangladesh, the Challenges For India"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS2\/International Relation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-0cb2d8d8970fcc76e5fb15bd21ee6252\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recent crisis in Bangladesh could jeopardise its relations with India and affect growing trade ties, restricting the movement of people and goods, and stalling a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#ebecf0\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Background (India-Bangladesh Ties)<\/strong><br>&#8211; <strong>Beginning:<\/strong> India\u2019s relationship with Bangladesh is anchored in common history, heritage, culture and geographical proximity, the foundation of which was laid in the <strong>1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.<\/strong><br>&#8211; India provided critical military and material support to assist Bangladesh in its fight for independence from Pakistan.It became a primary factor in shaping the newly independent nation\u2019s policy, as acknowledged by <strong>\u2018Bangabandhu\u2019<\/strong> Sheikh Mujibur Rahman: <strong>\u2018Friendship with India is a cornerstone of the foreign policy of Bangladesh\u2019.<\/strong><br>&#8211; But There was a rise in anti-India sentiment in the mid-1970s over issues ranging from boundary disputes and insurgency to the sharing of water.<br>&#8211; Back in <strong>February 2009<\/strong>, then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina faced a significant crisis within just two months of taking office.<br>&#8211; The mutiny of the<strong> Bangladesh Rifles (BDR)<\/strong>, a paramilitary force, resulted in a loss of lives and posed a direct threat to the newly elected government.<br>&#8211; Fast forward to 2024, and we find Bangladesh facing a different set of challenges.<br>&#8211; Sheikh Hasina, who has been a key ally to India since coming to power in 2009, has played a crucial role in fostering a healthy relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka.<br>&#8211; During her tenure, efforts were made to eradicate anti-India terrorist groups that operated from safe havens in Bangladesh.<br>&#8211; Additionally, economic, social, and cultural ties between the two countries flourished.<br>&#8211; However, her recent resignation as Bangladesh\u2019s Prime Minister introduces uncertainties that could affect bilateral relations in several ways.<br><strong>Bilateral Trade<\/strong><br>&#8211; <strong>Significance:<\/strong> Bangladesh is India\u2019s largest trading partner in the subcontinent, while India ranks as Bangladesh\u2019s second-largest partner in Asia after China.<br>&#8211; <strong>Trade Volume:<\/strong> In the financial year 2023-24, their total bilateral trade amounted to $13 billion.<br><strong>Exports and Imports:<\/strong><br>&#8211; Bangladesh is the biggest export destination for India\u2019s cotton, accounting for 34.9% of India\u2019s total cotton exports (some $2.4 billion in FY24). Other major Indian exports to Bangladesh are petroleum products and cereals.<br>&#8211; India\u2019s top import from Bangladesh are readymade garments, amounting to $391 million in FY24.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-8128bde0f409c45ac3bc514b4c52a43c\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Recent Developments<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Elections and Disconnect:<\/strong> The 2024 elections in Bangladesh were marked by the Opposition\u2019s boycott, limited democratic space, erosion of human rights, economic downturn, and high youth unemployment.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>These factors contributed to a growing disconnect between the government and its people, especially the youth who had previously benefited from economic growth under Prime Minister Hasina.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Student Protests:<\/strong> When students\u2019 protests erupted, the government\u2019s handling of the situation\u2014almost treating protesters as enemies of the state\u2014sealed Prime Minister Hasina\u2019s fate. The use of violence further exacerbated tensions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2ecea268ebc3141526cdb5425db718ab\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Bangladesh Army\u2019s Role<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Changing Landscape<\/strong>: Unlike in 2007, when the army intervened to restore order, the situation in 2024 is different.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The army now appears to be facilitating the will of the people by removing a beleaguered Prime Minister and restoring democratic processes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Vulnerability and Responsiveness:<\/strong> This shift has made the army more vulnerable and responsive to public opinion. General Waker-uz-Zaman, the current Bangladesh Army chief, faces a delicate balancing act.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-a9d57daf2528d8cd1d7f9fd19362618c\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>India\u2019s Stakes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Historic Ties: <\/strong>India and Bangladesh share deep-rooted bonds of history, language, and culture. Their bilateral relations have evolved into a model for the entire region.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Recent Interactions:<\/strong> In 2024, there were several high-level interactions between the two countries. Prime Minister Modi reaffirmed people-centric cooperation, and Bangladesh\u2019s Foreign Minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud visited India.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Both leaders participated in virtual summits and inaugurated the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Vaccine Cooperation:<\/strong> India assured Bangladesh of vaccine availability as soon as they are produced domestically.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-697d16db794e6e6a8819a37da9679de2\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Discussions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In October 2023, India and Bangladesh initiated discussions on a FTA during a meeting of the Joint Working Group on Trade in Dhaka. An FTA would reduce or eliminate customs duties, promote further trade, and facilitate investments.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>A 2012 working paper published by the World Bank<\/strong> estimated that a full FTA for goods would increase Bangladesh\u2019s exports to India by 182%, whereas a partial FTA could lead to a 134% increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, an FTA accompanied with improved transport infrastructure and better connectivity could see Bangladesh\u2019s exports rise to 297%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India, too, would see an increase to its exports by as much as 172% in this scenario.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Potential Impact:<\/strong> Sheikh Hasina\u2019s departure could stall progress on the FTA, affecting market access and economic ties between the two nations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-21f16798a9702c2ae88d60ee28cd76d8\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Infrastructure and Connectivity<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Growing Ties:<\/strong> Infrastructure development and connectivity have been crucial aspects of India-Bangladesh relations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Lines of Credit:<\/strong> India extended three lines of credit to Bangladesh since 2016, totaling $8 billion. These funds were earmarked for <strong>road, rail, shipping, and port infrastructure development.<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The<strong> Akhaura-Agartala rail link<\/strong> was inaugurated that connects Bangladesh and the northeast through Tripura.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is likely to boost <strong>small-scale industries and develop Assam and Tripura.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&nbsp;The <strong>Maitree Express<\/strong> connecting Kolkata with Dhaka was started in 2008 after a hiatus of over 40 years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bangladesh is also part of the <strong>Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)<\/strong> which has its headquarters in Dhaka.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Uncertainty:<\/strong> With an interim Bangladeshi government in place, the continuity of these infrastructure projects remains uncertain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional Stability: <\/strong>Stable infrastructure and connectivity contribute to regional stability and economic growth.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A disruption in Indo-Bangladesh ties could thus restrict India\u2019s access to the Northeast, which will be connected to mainland India only through the narrow <strong>\u2018Chicken\u2019s Neck\u2019 <\/strong>\u2014 only 22 km at its narrowest \u2014 between <strong>West Bengal and Assam.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1c7836d66299a617c0e40479be2a8cc8\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Challenges for India<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Stability and Fundamentalism:<\/strong> Bangladesh\u2019s escalating protests, financial crisis, and rising fundamentalist forces pose challenges for regional stability. India must closely monitor these developments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Refugee Crisis:<\/strong> Any instability in Bangladesh could spill over into India, affecting border security and potentially leading to a refugee crisis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-d0adc4bd9eb2e9b9b187dc32f0e06642\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India needs to navigate this changing landscape in Bangladesh carefully. Strengthening bilateral ties, supporting stability, and addressing shared challenges are crucial for both nations.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As the situation unfolds, both countries will need to navigate this transition carefully to maintain their positive trajectory of cooperation and friendship.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background has-fixed-layout\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q]<\/strong> To what extent does India&#8217;s national security and economic interests converge or diverge with the rapid socio-economic and political changes in Bangladesh?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/op-ed\/change-in-bangladesh-the-challenges-for-india\/article68502224.ece\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source: TH<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-round\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Daily-Editorial-Analysis-9-08-2024.pdf\">Download PDF<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recent crisis in Bangladesh could jeopardise its relations with India and affect growing trade ties, restricting the movement of people and goods, and stalling a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27292"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27292\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27310,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27292\/revisions\/27310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}