{"id":26556,"date":"2024-07-11T17:23:22","date_gmt":"2024-07-11T11:53:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/?p=26556"},"modified":"2024-07-12T16:02:31","modified_gmt":"2024-07-12T10:32:31","slug":"indias-demographic-journey-of-hits-and-misses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/editorial-analysis\/11-07-2024\/indias-demographic-journey-of-hits-and-misses","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s Demographic Journey of Hits and Misses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Syllabus: GS2\/Social Issues; GS3\/Economy; Population<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-0cb2d8d8970fcc76e5fb15bd21ee6252\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As we observe <strong>World Population Day on July 11<\/strong>, there is much to reflect upon in India\u2019s demographic journey over the decades, and there is need to delve into the <strong>hits and misses<\/strong> that have <strong>shaped India&#8217;s population dynamics.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-7b8b4aefd3d18a4a26d2e590e5f861b3\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>About<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In 1989, the <strong>United Nations<\/strong> established <strong>World Population Day<\/strong> following a <strong>proposal by Dr. K.C. Zachariah<\/strong>, a renowned demographer. At that time, the global population had surpassed five billion, and challenges such as <strong>poverty, health disparities, and gender inequality<\/strong> were prevalent, especially in developing countries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Scary Decades:<\/strong> During the 1960s and 1970s, the global population was growing at an alarming yearly rate of 2%.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India faced predictions of doom, with widespread poverty, hunger, and mortality projected for the coming decades. However, reality took a different turn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-27023d2a30da9a6c4bdeb2e4df9212c9\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Unexpected Progress<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fertility Decline:<\/strong> Global fertility rates declined rapidly due to improvements in living conditions and medical infrastructure. India followed suit, with fertility rates falling since the 1970s.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5<\/strong> reports that <strong>India\u2019s total fertility rate (TFR)<\/strong> decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mortality Reduction:<\/strong> Life expectancy increased significantly due to better healthcare and living standards. India witnessed a drop in mortality rates, leading to an ageing population.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Individuals aged 60 years and above constituted 8.6% of the total population in 2011, projected to rise to 19.5% by 2050.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Understanding the Demographic Dividend<\/strong><br><br>&#8211; It refers to the <strong>economic growth potential<\/strong> that <strong>results from shifts in a population\u2019s age structure<\/strong>, mainly when the share of the <strong>working-age population (15 to 64 years old)<\/strong> is larger than the <strong>non-working-age population (14 or younger and 65 or older)<\/strong>.<br>a. The change in age structure is typically brought on by a decline in fertility and mortality rates.<br><br><strong>Key areas where a country can find demographic dividends<\/strong><br><br>&#8211; <strong>Savings <\/strong>\u2014 During the demographic period, personal savings grow and can be used to stimulate the economy.<br>&#8211; <strong>Labour Supply <\/strong>\u2014 More workers are added to the labour force, including more women.<br>&#8211; <strong>Human Capital<\/strong> \u2014 With fewer births, parents are able to allocate more resources per child, leading to better educational and health outcomes.<br>&#8211; <strong>Economic Growth<\/strong> \u2014 GDP per capita is increased due to a decrease in the dependency ratio.<br><br><strong>Demographic Dividend of India<\/strong><br><br>&#8211; India, with its large and young population, is currently experiencing a demographic dividend.<br>a. It is expected to last until 2055, providing India with a unique opportunity to boost its economic growth.<br>&#8211; India is expected to add another 183 million people to the working-age group between 2020 and 2050.<br>&#8211; This change in the age structure of the population can lead to a \u2018demographic dividend\u2019 of economic growth if it is accompanied by sustained investments in education and health, and policies that promote labour force participation.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-c6f7eb5f1b78c1867078ba2f72bb3809\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Demographic Shifts and Development<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>India\u2019s population dynamics are intertwined with its development scenario:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Smaller Family Norms:<\/strong> The reduction in fertility signifies a transition toward smaller family norms.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It can reduce the proportion of the dependent population and result in a demographic dividend\u2014a period where the working-age population exceeds the dependent population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Eradicating Poverty:<\/strong> India made significant strides in eradicating poverty. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% to 10% between 1990 and 2019.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3f7090c8a871a0a0368a7503f9f31e23\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Challenges and Associated Risks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Low Human Capital Base and Lack of Skills and Job Creation:<\/strong> Poor human capital formation is reflected in low employability among India\u2019s graduates and postgraduates.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to <strong>ASSOCHAM<\/strong>, only 20-30% of engineers find a job suited to their skills. It is a big challenge as skilling and reskilling are vital in current times because of the increasing new fields and opportunities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>ongoing transformation <\/strong>of India\u2019s economy from primarily agrarian to more non-agrarian presents <strong>two challenges<\/strong>:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Changing people\u2019s skills to transit from the agricultural sector to either manufacturing or services, and;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Requiring workers to change location, as non-agricultural employment opportunities tend to be in urban centres far from rural India.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Health Crisis and Macroeconomic Shocks:<\/strong> With its large population, India faces many challenges, including coping with today\u2019s health crisis, creating more jobs, managing macroeconomic shocks and mitigating climate change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Gender Disparity:<\/strong> While gender inequality remains an issue in many parts of India, there has been significant progress in recent years toward gender equality.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It includes increasing levels of education and workforce participation among women, which can help to further increase the size and productivity of the workforce.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inadequate Investment in Education and Health:<\/strong> To reap the benefits of the demographic dividend, India needs to invest heavily in education and health.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is crucial to equip the workforce with the right skills to compete in the modern economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-13bd26f269d4aba21a5832038af167cc\" style=\"color:#015aa7\"><strong>Conclusion and Way Forward<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>While India\u2019s progress is commendable, challenges remain. <strong>Urbanisation<\/strong> strains <strong>infrastructure<\/strong>, and an <strong>ageing population<\/strong> demands tailored policies. As we approach 2030\u2014the target year for the <strong>Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)<\/strong>\u2014India must continue its demographic journey with strategic planning and inclusive policies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>India\u2019s demographic trajectory has seen both hits and misses, but the path forward involves leveraging the demographic dividend while addressing emerging challenges.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#fff2cc\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Daily Mains Practice Question<\/strong><br><strong>[Q]<\/strong> Highlights the major hits and misses that have shaped India&#8217;s population dynamics. How can India utilise its ageing population?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/lead\/indias-demographic-journey-of-hits-and-misses\/article68389915.ece\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Source: TH<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Daily-Editorial-Analysis-11-07-2024.pdf\">Download PDF<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we observe World Population Day on July 11, there is much to reflect upon in India\u2019s demographic journey over the decades..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial-analysis"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26556"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26556\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26593,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26556\/revisions\/26593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}