{"id":14834,"date":"2021-04-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/current_affairs\/uncategorized\/16-04-2021\/us-decides-to-exit-afghanistan\/"},"modified":"2024-06-07T18:40:18","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T13:10:18","slug":"us-decides-to-exit-afghanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/16-04-2021\/us-decides-to-exit-afghanistan","title":{"rendered":"US Decides to Exit Afghanistan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>In News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Recently, the <strong>US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization <\/strong>(NATO)<strong> have announced<\/strong> that they will<strong> withdraw all their troops from <\/strong><strong>Afghanistan <\/strong><strong>by 11th September 2021<\/strong>, the <strong>20th anniversary of the 9\/11 attacks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>There are about <strong>2,500-3,500 US troops<\/strong> in Afghanistan at present, plus a <strong>NATO force <\/strong>of under <strong>8,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>The troop pullout is <strong>expected to begin before 1st May <\/strong>and will <strong>conclude before the symbolic date of 11th September<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>About the Move<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Earlier, in the <strong>Doha Agreement<\/strong>, the <strong>Trump Administration<\/strong> also made a <strong>similar decision of troop withdrawal<\/strong> by <strong>1st May 2021<\/strong>, however it was <strong>conditional<\/strong>, viz.\n<ul>\n<li>Steps by Taliban to prevent al-Qaeda or any other group from sheltering in Afghanistan<\/li>\n<li>A 90-day ceasefire.<\/li>\n<li>Talks under the auspices of the UN for a consensus plan for Afghanistan among the US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and India.<\/li>\n<li>A meeting in Turkey between the Taliban and Afghan government towards an \u201cinclusive\u201d interim government.<\/li>\n<li>An agreement on the foundational principles of the future political order and for a permanent ceasefire.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>Biden administration<\/strong> has <strong>not put any of such conditions<\/strong>.\n<ul>\n<li>The<strong> US military establishment had insisted that any withdrawal<\/strong> should be \u201c<strong>conditions-based<\/strong>\u201d, however, the Biden administration did not agree to that.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The decision is <strong>based on data<\/strong> gathered by American intelligence, which suggest that <strong>Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups do not pose an immediate threat to strike the US<\/strong> from Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<li>However, the US <strong>will not withdraw all its troops<\/strong> and some will <strong>remain <\/strong>to <strong>provide diplomatic security<\/strong>, which is a standard practice.<\/li>\n<li><strong>After September<\/strong>, if needed, the US could rely on <strong>secretive Special Operations<\/strong>, <strong>Pentagon contractors<\/strong> and <strong>intelligence operatives<\/strong> to <strong>stem major threats<\/strong> from terror organisations such as Al Qaeda or the Islamic State.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Reactions<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The withdrawal would help the US move past its \u201c<strong>9\/11 fixation<\/strong>\u201d, in which <strong>counterterrorism<\/strong> had remained the most important foreign policy objective.<\/li>\n<li>The US could <strong>devote greater energy in dealing with China and Russia<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>There are fears that America\u2019s departure could lead <strong>Afghanistan slipping into a civil war<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Major Timeline of US War in Afghanistan<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>November 2001: <\/strong>The <strong>Taliban flee Kabul <\/strong>as the US-led coalition marches into the Afghan capital with the Northern Alliance.<\/li>\n<li><strong>December 2001:<\/strong> The<strong> Bonn Agreement <\/strong>is signed in Bonn, Germany, giving the majority of power to the Northern Alliance\u2019s key players and strengthening the warlords. The <strong>Taliban regime officially collapses<\/strong>.\n<ul>\n<li>Karzai is sworn in as chairman of a 29-member governing council established under the Bonn Agreement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>2004-2009:<\/strong> General elections are held and <strong>Karzai is elected President<\/strong> for two consecutive terms.<\/li>\n<li><strong>April 2014:<\/strong> After flawed elections, <strong>US negotiates<\/strong> a power-sharing deal for a so-called <strong>Unity Government<\/strong>, with <strong>Ashraf Ghani <\/strong>serving as <strong>President <\/strong>and <strong>Abdullah Abdullah <\/strong>as <strong>Chief Executive<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>December 2014:<\/strong> <strong>American and NATO<\/strong> troops<strong> formally end their combat mission<\/strong>, transitioning to a support and training role and to carry out <strong>operations against Taliban and al-Qaeda<\/strong> targets.<\/li>\n<li><strong>2015-2018: <\/strong>An<strong> Islamic State group affiliate <\/strong>emerges in the <strong>east<\/strong> and the <strong>Taliban seize control<\/strong> of nearly half the country.<\/li>\n<li><strong>September 2018: <\/strong>US appoints veteran <strong>Afghan-American diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad<\/strong> as <strong>negotiator <\/strong>with the Taliban.<\/li>\n<li><strong>September 2019:<\/strong> After intense escalation in Taliban attacks, the US scraps talks with the Taliban.<\/li>\n<li><strong>February 2020:<\/strong> Agreement on temporary reduction in violence as the first step toward a final peace deal.\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>US and the Taliban signed a deal in Doha, Qatar<\/strong>, laying out the <strong>withdrawal of US troops <\/strong>and also envisioned <strong>intra-Afghan talks <\/strong>on a future political road map.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>On Afghanistan<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The government of President Ashraf Ghani would undoubtedly face a <strong>tough task as the Taliban have been launching attacks<\/strong> for the last one year to bring more territory under their control and they are <strong>expected to make further military gains<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>The possibility of the <strong>Taliban <\/strong>being able to strike a <strong>peace deal with the Afghan government is low<\/strong>, as the Taliban believe that they can triumph militarily.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>On Taliban<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The latest announcement has <strong>removed all incentives for the Taliban to agree for a dialogue<\/strong> with the Afghan government.<\/li>\n<li>It declared that the <strong>US has violated the agreement by putting off the withdrawal from May to September<\/strong>, opening ways for the Taliban to take \u201c<strong>countermeasures<\/strong>\u201d, and the US will be held responsible for all future consequences.<\/li>\n<li>The Taliban would <strong>not be attending a new round of talks<\/strong> to decide Afghanistan\u2019s future scheduled in <strong>Turkey <\/strong>later in <strong>April 2021<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>On Pakistan<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>For the Pakistani Army, which has always seen Afghanistan in terms of \u201cstrategic depth\u201d in its forever hostility with India, a <strong>Taliban capture of Afghanistan<\/strong> would finally bring a<strong> friendly force in power in Kabul<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>However, Pakistan will need to <strong>shoulder the entire burden of the chaos<\/strong> of a predicted civil war and the <strong>emerging issue of refugees<\/strong>. It will have to<strong> guard against instability<\/strong> in Afghanistan from spilling over the border.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>On China<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>It would have much to lose from instability in Afghanistan as this could have an <strong>impact on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor<\/strong> (CPEC).<\/li>\n<li>A Taliban regime in Afghanistan might end up <strong>stirring unrest in the Xinjiang Autonomous region<\/strong>, home to the <strong>Uighur <\/strong>minority.<\/li>\n<li>Conversely, as an ally of Pakistan, it <strong>could see a bigger role<\/strong> for itself in Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>On Russia<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The US exit is for Russia a full circle after its own <strong>defeat at the hands of US-backed Mujahideen and exit from Afghanistan<\/strong> three decades ago.<\/li>\n<li>Russia has taken on the role of <strong>peacemaker in Afghanistan<\/strong> but both the Taliban and the Afghan government have been <strong>wary of its efforts<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Russia\u2019s <strong>growing links with Pakistan<\/strong> could translate into a <strong>post-US role<\/strong> for Moscow in Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>On Iran<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>It shares borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan so it<strong> perceives active security threats<\/strong> from both and a Taliban regime in Kabul would<strong> only increase this threat perception<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>However, Iran, with links to the <strong>Hazaras <\/strong>in Afghanistan, has of late played all sides. Despite the <strong>mutual hostility and the theological divide<\/strong> between the two, Iran <strong>opened channels to the Taliban<\/strong> a few years ago, and even hosted a Taliban delegation at Tehran.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>On India<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>earlier proposal gave India a role<\/strong>, by recognising it as a regional stakeholder, but the<strong> current proposal has ended all hopes <\/strong>for India\u2019s involvement.<\/li>\n<li>Another concern would be <strong>India-focused militants<\/strong> such as<strong> Lashkar-e-Taiba<\/strong> and <strong>Jaish-e-Mohammed<\/strong>, which the Indian security establishment already believes to have relocated in large numbers to Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/explained\/us-afghanistan-military-pullout-joe-biden-9-11-attacks-7275478\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IE<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In News Recently, the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have announced that they will withdraw all their troops from Afghanistan by 11th September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the 9\/11 attacks. There are about 2,500-3,500 US troops in Afghanistan at present, plus a NATO force of under 8,000. The troop pullout is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[56,57,30,34,35],"class_list":["post-14834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-affairs","tag-agreements-involving-india-or-affecting-indias-interests","tag-effect-of-policies-politics-of-developed-developing-countries-on-indias-interests","tag-gs-2","tag-india-foreign-relations","tag-international-organisations-groupings"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2023\/07\/1439639current-affairs.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14834"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14834\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25444,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14834\/revisions\/25444"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}