{"id":1405,"date":"2023-05-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/current_affairs\/uncategorized\/03-05-2023\/economics-of-indias-population-growth\/"},"modified":"2023-05-03T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T00:00:00","slug":"economics-of-indias-population-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/03-05-2023\/economics-of-indias-population-growth","title":{"rendered":"Economics of India\u2019s Population Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>In News<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The annual State of World Population report 2023 by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) stated that India\u2019s population is expected to surpass that of China by the middle of this year at the latest.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>History of India\u2019s population<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" style=\"border-collapse:collapse; border:none; width:624px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Period<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Population estimate<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Remarks<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">1871<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">255 million<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">1<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><sup>st<\/sup><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> Census Data<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">1947<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">343 million<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">At the time of Independence<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">2023<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">1426 million<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"background-color:#fff2cc; border-bottom:1px solid #000000; border-left:1px solid #000000; border-right:1px solid #000000; border-top:1px solid #000000; vertical-align:top; width:208px\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">India becomes most populous<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Population vs Economic development<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Starting point of this debate is <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Thomas Malthus\u2019<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> argument in 1798.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Malthusianism is the theory<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> that population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear, which eventually reduces living standards to the point of triggering a population decline. This event, called a Malthusian catastrophe.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Since then, however, the world population has grown eight times to reach 8 billion.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">During the 1950s and 60s, \u201cthe general view of economists was that high birth rates and rapid population growth in poor countries would divert scarce capital away from savings and investment, thereby placing a drag on economic development.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">However, between the 1970s and 1990s, several studies \u201cfailed to detect a robust relationship between national population growth rates and per capita income growth\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The global view reverted in the 1990s when researchers again found a clear \u201cnegative association between population growth and economic performance\u201d.<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">During this time, World was also introduced to the concept of \u201cdemographic dividend\u201d i.e., high economic growth when there is a bulge in the working-age population (roughly speaking, population between 15 and 65 years).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>In Indian Context<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Opportunities for India:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Theory of demographic transition suggests that population growth is linked to overall levels of economic development as more people are able to produce more goods.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The rising young population (>66 % population in 15-59 age) provides India with a great opportunity for growth, peppered with the possibility of path-breaking innovation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">India\u2019s population heterogeneity ensures that this window of demographic dividend becomes available at different times in different States.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Farming and industry will be able to benefit from economies of scale.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">It will lead to higher tax revenues which can be spent on public goods, such as health care and environmental projects.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The size of the population is intimately connected to the global power dynamics shaping the relationship between nations and regions.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Issues with population:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The increase in the working-age population may lead to rising unemployment, fueling economic and social risks.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">High population growth also affects the faster depletion of resources.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The 65+ category is going to grow quite fast i.e., increase from 8.6% now to 13% by 2030.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">If India is unable to reap demographic dividend, it will become a demographic disaster.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Lessons for India\u00a0\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">India\u2019s fertility rate (the number of children per woman) is already below the replacement rate of 2.1 but the population will peak by 2064.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The bigger challenge now is to figure out how to best use India\u2019s demographic dividend because despite China growing at remarkably high over the past four decades it may become old before becoming rich.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Countries like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have already shown us how demographic dividend can be reaped to achieve incredible economic growth by:<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Increasing women\u2019s participation in the workforce. As of 2022,29.4 % of women were working or looking for work, down from 34.1% in 2003-04.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Investing more in children and adolescents, particularly in nutrition and learning during early childhood.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">A greater focus needs to be on transitioning from secondary education to universal skilling and entrepreneurship, as done in South Korea.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Health investments &#8211; Evidence suggests that better health facilitates improved economic production.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Making reproductive healthcare services accessible on a rights-based approach. We need to provide universal access to high-quality primary healthcare.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">India needs to address the diversity between States. Southern States, which are advanced in demographic transition, already have a higher percentage of older people.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">A new federal approach to governance reforms for demographic dividend will need to be put in place for policy coordination between States on various emerging population issues such as migration, ageing, skilling, female workforce participation and urbanization.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Conclusion<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">India has a window of opportunity to reap the benefits of demographic dividend until 2040s otherwise it could become demographic liability or demographic disaster.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Source: TH<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In News The annual State of World Population report 2023 by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) stated that India\u2019s population is expected to surpass that of China by the middle of this year at the latest. History of India\u2019s population Period Population estimate Remarks 1871 255 million 1st Census Data 1947 343 million At the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1406,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[25,96],"class_list":["post-1405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-affairs","tag-gs1","tag-population-associated-issues"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2023\/07\/4367079Screenshot_6.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}