{"id":13986,"date":"2021-02-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/current_affairs\/uncategorized\/05-02-2021\/why-did-the-myanmar-military-stage-a-coup\/"},"modified":"2021-02-05T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2021-02-05T00:00:00","slug":"why-did-the-myanmar-military-stage-a-coup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/05-02-2021\/why-did-the-myanmar-military-stage-a-coup","title":{"rendered":"Why did the Myanmar military stage a coup?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>In News<\/strong>: <strong>Myanmar military staged a coup<\/strong> and <strong>dismissed the democratically elected Daw Aung San Suu Kyi\u2019s National League for Democracy (NLD) government<\/strong> over allegations of rigged elections.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Background of the Event: Timeline of Myanmar\u2019s Political History:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1992: Than Shwe <\/strong>emerged as head of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and commander in chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces. Under military rule, he became ruler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2008: Military<\/strong> wrote<strong> a new constitution<\/strong> with the following aims.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>To safeguard military Generals\u2019 interests.<\/li>\n<li>To promote Shwe loyalists<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Some controversial provisions of this constitution passed by <strong>Junta<\/strong> (<strong>a military or political group that rules a country after taking power by force<\/strong>) amidst Cyclone Nargis via referendum were:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Military held 25 percent of the seats<\/strong> <strong>of the parliaments<\/strong>. (Art. 14)<\/li>\n<li>Military <strong>reserved the nomination of ministers of defence, internal security and border affairs for itself<\/strong>. (Art. 17 b)<\/li>\n<li>Military had the <strong>right to take over power<\/strong> in a state of emergency. (Art. 40 c)<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>National Defence and Security Council<\/strong> was set up as the most powerful body during the crisis with military representatives enjoying an upper hand (Art. 201)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2010: NLD under Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi <\/strong>started protests by boycotting 2010 elections.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)<\/strong> won<\/p>\n<p><strong>2010-2015<\/strong>: Military started loosening its grip on government and society.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Political prisoners including Ms Suu Kyi were released<\/li>\n<li>Censorship was eased.<\/li>\n<li>Barak Obama\u2019s 2012 visit marked a thaw in US-Myanmar relations.<\/li>\n<li>NLD accepted Army written Constitution<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2015<\/strong>: NLD won the country\u2019s first free and fair election and formed the government<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It raised hopes of Myanmar\u2019s full transition to democracy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2017:<\/strong> Military launched a <strong>campaign targeting Rohingya<\/strong> in name of Security in order to gain prominence against Suu Kyi.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Commander in Chief <strong>Gen. Min Aung Hlaing<\/strong> was projected as the saviour of the nation.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Social media was also used<\/strong> to popularise his activities <strong>forcing 7,00,000 Rohingyas<\/strong> to flee. (His Facebook pages were taken down after the Rohingya crackdown)<\/li>\n<li>None of these tactics helped the USDP in 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2017-2020<\/strong>: <strong>Ms Suu Kyi tried to buy peace with the Army<\/strong> by supporting its endeavour in Rohingya but failed. She was also criticised by the UN for the same.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2020: Fresh elections arrived. NLD won nearly 80% seats.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>USDP raised concerns about the fairness and neutrality of elections.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2021: Just before the start of new Parliament, Military staged a coup, declared an emergency and promised a fresh election without any timeline.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Why the Military did a Coup and how it will impact Myanmar?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Fear of Losing Power<\/strong>: Even limited democracy under Suu Kyi threatened Military Rulers.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Rigged Elections<\/strong>: It was the official reason stated by Myanmar Army but Myanmar\u2019s Union Election Commission has denied any such incident.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What is International Reaction?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S.A. and West: <\/strong>\u00a0Harsh Reaction.<\/li>\n<li><strong>India<\/strong>: Expressed \u201c<strong>deep concern<\/strong>\u201d.<\/li>\n<li><strong>China<\/strong>: Indirectly supporting Generals which means Myanmar rulers may offset Indian and Western pressure by aligning with China<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Lessons which the International Community can learn:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Following debates will resurface among the International Community after this event:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Prudence of sanctions<\/strong>: The sanctions won\u2019t be fruitful at least this time because\n<ul>\n<li>China, Thailand and Singapore have traditionally been key trading partners of Myanmar. <strong>Chinese support can act as a bargaining chip<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Myanmar in the past has bypassed such sanction by doing bilateral agreements with neighbouring and other Asian Nations.<\/li>\n<li><strong>European Union\u2019s \u2018Everything But Arms\u2019<\/strong> scheme <strong>helps the poor<\/strong> in Myanmar\u2019s garment industry by <strong>allowing export of goods to the EU free of duties<\/strong>. If this facility is discarded, it may backfire by turning poors against the west.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Need for accountability for crimes against humanity<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Culture of impunity during the 2017 Rohingya crisis was seen.<\/li>\n<li>Senior military officials brazenly exploited social media to mobilise public support for brutality against Rohingyas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Multi-layered Chinese factor<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>China has appointed specific envoys for Asian affairs, who are de-facto working on Myanmar-related issues since 2013.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Disbanded international groups in Myanmar<\/strong> need to be re-established.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ethnic &#038; Religious fault lines <\/strong>including Bamar (Myanmar\u2019s largest ethnic group), which support NLD and other minorities (35%) may be exploited by the Army to re-establish strongholds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Challenges before India-Myanmar Future Relations:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The <strong>tightrope between Idealism and Realpolitik: <\/strong>India\u2019s wish and support for democracy in Myanmar may backfire with the presence of a deeper state like Pakistan.<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>deeper ties with Myanmar Army can\u2019t be broken<\/strong>.\n<ul>\n<li>Myanmar is crucial for securing and managing North East Frontiers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Chinese factor:<\/strong> India can\u2019t afford to lose another neighbour to China.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gateway to South East: <\/strong>Myanmar is key in establishing contact with South East Asia.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Infrastructure Engagement<\/strong> may get threatened in\u00a0 case of strained relations.\n<ul>\n<li><strong>India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral highway<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport network<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Special Economic Zone at the Sittwe deep-water port<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Public Clamour against Rohingya\u2019s Persecution in India<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Conclusion and Way Forward:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The damages of remaining stuck to Idealism can be very well seen from Nepal and Maldives examples. India\u2019s power will vane to balance between the West and Myanmar\u2019s new Regime.<\/p>\n<p>Under such circumstances, India must<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Try to secure its strategic interests in Myanmar by active and deeper engagement.<\/li>\n<li>In course of time, India may cautiously try to push Myanmar\u2019s Authoritarian regime to move towards Democracy.<\/li>\n<li>India must try to take the role of a bridge between Myanmar and the West and restraint China Factor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In News: Myanmar military staged a coup and dismissed the democratically elected Daw Aung San Suu Kyi\u2019s National League for Democracy (NLD) government over allegations of rigged elections. Background of the Event: Timeline of Myanmar\u2019s Political History: 1992: Than Shwe emerged as head of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and commander in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-affairs"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2023\/07\/4660493current-affairs.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13986\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}