{"id":1065,"date":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/current_affairs\/uncategorized\/12-04-2023\/imd-predictions-of-monsoon\/"},"modified":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-04-12T00:00:00","slug":"imd-predictions-of-monsoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/current-affairs\/12-04-2023\/imd-predictions-of-monsoon","title":{"rendered":"IMD predictions of Monsoon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>In News<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>India Meteorological Department (IMD)<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> predicted a borderline-level normal summer monsoon rainfall this year.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>About IMD\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">It is an agency of the <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Ministry of Earth Sciences.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">It is the principal agency responsible for <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">It is also one of the six Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organisation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">IMD releases the long range forecast in two stages in April and June.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Predictions by IMD<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Normal to below normal rainfall:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The rainfall during the June-September period is likely to be <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>96% of the long-term average Period.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Normal to below normal rainfall in some areas of<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> north west India<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> and some parts of west central India and some pockets of north east India.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>El Nino impact:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>El Nino<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> is the key factor responsible for the relatively less rainfall this year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Since 2019, India has been under the influence of the <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>converse \u2018La Nina<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u2019 and therefore is getting substantial monsoon rains.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The El Nino event, triggered by warm water in the <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>equatorial Pacific<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">, can affect weather patterns worldwide and in India, <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>El Nino linked to drier conditions and reduced rainfall.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Current La Nina:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The current La Lina conditions, which is usually favourable to monsoon, has changed to neutral over the equatorial Pacific region.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>IMD Categorisation Method of Monsoon<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Long Period Average (LPA):\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) averaged over a <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>long period<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> like 30 years, 50-years etc.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">It acts as a <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>benchmark<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Categories of Rainfall:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Large Excess: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u226560% of\u00a0 long period average (LPA).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Excess: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">20% to 59% of\u00a0 long period average (LPA).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Normal: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0-19% to +19% of\u00a0 long period average (LPA).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Deficient: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">-59% to -20% of\u00a0 long period average (LPA).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Large Deficient: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">\u00a0-99% to -60% of\u00a0 long period average (LPA).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Predicting the Monsoon: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Monsoon season is from June to September in India as a whole, the <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>long period average (LPA) is 88 cm and standard deviation is 9cm (about 10% of mean value).<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Therefore, when the <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>rainfall averaged<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> over the country as a whole is <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>within \u00b110%<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> from its LPA or <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>90% to 110% of LPA,<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> the rainfall is said to be <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>\u201cnormal\u201d <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">and when the rainfall is<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> <90% of LPA <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">it is considered to be<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> below normal <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">and when it is<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> >110% of LPA<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">, the rainfall is said to be \u201c<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>above normal\u201d.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Monsoon &#038; its onset<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">A monsoon is a seasonal change in the direction of the prevailing, or strongest, winds of a region.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The monsoon that starts around the first week of June, making the first landfall in Kerala.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">From October to November, the r<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>etreating monsoon or the Northeast monsoon<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> sets in, and brings rain to the eastern coast of India, especially Tamil Nadu.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Various factors <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">such as the availability of energy in the atmosphere, the intertropical convergence zone, the Coriolis effect and jet streams, play a role in facilitating the southwest monsoons.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Effects of Monsoon on Indian Subcontinent<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Agriculture &#038; Economy: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Adequate and timely monsoon showers are vital for <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>India\u2019s agriculture sector<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">, the main source of livelihood for some 60% of its population and which accounts for about 18% of the economy.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Nearly half of India&#8217;s farmland, which has no irrigation cover, depends on annual June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Monsoon uncertainty can pose<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> potential risk to the economy.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Rivers: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The monsoon brings water and sediment not only to Indian rivers but also to rivers in China, Bangladesh, etc.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Know about El Nino and La Nina<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Normal Conditions: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">During normal conditions in the Pacific ocean, <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>trade winds <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">blow west along the equator, t<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>aking warm water from South America towards Asia.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths \u2014 a process called <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>upwelling.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>two opposing climate patterns<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> that break these normal conditions.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>El Nino: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">During El Ni\u00f1o, <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>trade winds weaken. <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas and as a result <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>cold water is pushed towards Asia.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:circle\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">El Ni\u00f1o means <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>Little Boy<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> in Spanish. South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s. The full name they used was El Ni\u00f1o de Navidad, because El Ni\u00f1o typically peaks around December.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin-left:48px; text-align:center\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/SB8CkRUMisrrRq6u0I252ufcjrqx6X7lKz68nzpbrAFCnaeYgdNRX67xVUrYMK_dNrtNKdnzVxSnfVUTO0yds0iS7-2fkTia_vmB82faEOHHN5seFpPjZtu75a9itNLxErwRi-IEvJunNxLUhw46Q_w\" style=\"height:418px; width:483px\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>La Ni\u00f1a: <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">It means<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> Little Girl <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">in Spanish. La Ni\u00f1a is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Ni\u00f1o, or simply &#8220;a cold event.&#8221; La Ni\u00f1a has the opposite effect of El Ni\u00f1o. During La Ni\u00f1a events, <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>trade winds<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> are even <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>stronger than usual<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">, pushing more<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> warm water toward Asia<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align:center\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/YQv_F1Qfvusrt0LC7ccPdF2hGDbGaMVqjVkumnIzzUt7UlFcmR5ZXZw3bhazvCRuwJR5girfwoUfCM0G6ELpNjDJ_0BW_jI9vKoE3yMeg0k4p1US9WEnowk_OKZ6SZkE8op0cHyyPmawdCcUlPaGC5Q\" style=\"height:509px; width:544px\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong><u>Effects on the Indian Ocean<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">A transition from a La Ni\u00f1a winter to an El Ni\u00f1o summer has historically tended to produce a largest deficit in the monsoon. If an El Ni\u00f1o emerges by summer, India is likely to experience a <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>deficit monsoon.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> The monsoon deficit will be accompanied by <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>extreme wet and dry events.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>vertical shear,<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> which is the change in intensity of winds from the surface to the upper atmosphere, tends to be weaker as well. This in turn can favour <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong>enhanced cyclogenesis,<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"> i.e. cyclone formation.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type:disc\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\">The La Nina phenomenon on the other hand can lead to the<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#000000\"><strong> above normal rainfall and decreased temperature in India.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/news\/national\/india-to-see-normal-rains-during-southwest-monsoon-season-imd\/article66724049.ece\" style=\"text-decoration:none\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt\"><span style=\"font-family:Arial\"><span style=\"color:#1155cc\"><u>TH<\/u><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In News India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a borderline-level normal summer monsoon rainfall this year.\u00a0 About IMD\u00a0 It is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology. It is also one of the six Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[25],"class_list":["post-1065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-affairs","tag-gs1"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/wp-images.nextias.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/format=auto\/ca\/uploads\/2023\/07\/4484056Screenshot_6.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.nextias.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}